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The AIGFS has 7 snow events in the next 12 days.

Yeah not even worth looking at the GFS other than entertainment purposes

Until Early February, then Valentines is the period to watch, then its actually late February. Then its early March, remember, it can snow in March! Then people keep tracking potential but they are really just tracking spring. Meanwhile we got like 2 inches on the grass during that time. Happens every year. Last time things were actually good was 2014-2015 season; outside of the blizzard of 2016.

The last time we saw 1" of snow at GSP was 1/16/2022. 4 years tomorrow! I grew up in the 80's and don't remember ever going more than a year without seeing something.

Well.

Nothing like the good ole hr 300 storm on gfs

Gonna be a couple threats next week…Friday looking like the most threatening, but perhaps a smaller one on Wednesday. Most are focused on the 1/18 failure, but next week may fly under the radar until then.

I’ve found that the more you post, the better chance we have. Hopefully you start posting more in the coming weeks.

Triano would love this map

GFS and GEFS are 100% unusable .. the flip flopping is atrocious .. sticking with AIs EURO and then hires close in for now..

Oh dear

This makes a lot of logical sense to me. Even though I don’t have any expertise, you’ve explained it in a way that makes intuitive sense. If I had to pick the AI versus traditional models at this point, I would choose the traditional models.

Triangle needs snow!!!

Yikes.. well the AIs will be exposed this storm if they cave. They may need some more time.

I still think eventually we get some decent snow. But we have had a workable to somewhat favorable longwave pattern most of the winter season and have thus far largely wasted it. It's very frustrating.

Nina's breaking almost always cause the flood gates to open, except for 2023 for some reason.

3rd and 27, special teams at the ready

I don't believe the AI models use physics equations (mass, momentum, energy etc). But they are indirectly built in based on the training sets they incorporate (e.g., GFS/ECMWF).

Probably not til Saturday. Hoping for a few inches from both..

UKMET is completely strung out for Sunday. Has nothing for us. Has 1-2" for most of us for Saturday but temps look like low-mid 30s so I doubt any of that is actually accumulating. Now we are down to the Euro.

And poof GFS no more snow. Now watch the European model will bring snow back into the area again on later model runs lol

How if it is a blend of models what model is really showing anything good enough to make it a hit?

More snow for the triangle, please

GEFS are pretty damned close to EPS now as well. A little better than the OP runs but not by a lot. Maybe an inch or two for eastern areas.

We need a complete pattern change. I have hopes for later spring and summer as an El Nino is predicted to develop. A spring branch that flows thru. my property perked up a little from the rain but is still very low for January.