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With Humberto rapidly intensifying today, another MH is on the board. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (3) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH)

Taking a look at our coming PTC. Thanks to @Nibor for showing me how to post larger gif animations. You can clearly see both the gradual organization and headwinds for the coming PTC 9. To the north, you can see arc clouds still radiating out of the area, indicating the presence of some dry air. You can also see some of the thunderstorm tops being sheared, although it does look like in recent frames that things may have slackened some. It's easier to see the larger scale spin, and recon is on the way to examine how well defined a low level center there is. For a relatively short term forecast, there is still a lot to be figured out.

Humberto is now a Cat 3. SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 58.1W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (formerly AL94), located near eastern Cuba, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Wonder if he's gonna apologize for the "spoiled" comment, lol (I mean I happen to agree with him but it was really, really bad timing)

AI models are interesting for next weekend.. we watch

Well I think he was implying that it formed as a result of the event rather than necessarily during it. His name is Paul Roundy and has a lot of neat papers on seasonal climatology fyi. I can ask about the details next class if you want, don't fully know myself tbh.

Schools closed Monday in Brunswick County NC (most southern county)

colors are really exploding here.. some areas look great.

Also can take more precip, refer to Flash Flood Guidance. The terrain causes extra problems..8 inches of rain in NC is very different than Sofla.

Should have PTC 9 at the 5pm or 8pm advisory at the latest, it's coming up on Tomer Burg's site as a PTC now. By the way, some really nice value added products on his tropics site: polarwx.com/tropical

Brunswick County NC schools closed Monday.

Going be interesting to see if the AI models can be good like what they did for Erin, again.

Google models look to mainly stay offshore then go up coast in various ways to. https://www.weathernerds.org/models/genc.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=120&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=630&initrange=55.000000000000:230.000000000000:20.000000000000:300.000000000000&initcx1=NaN&initcy1=NaN&initcx2=NaN&initcy2=NaN&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=429&initsoundy=291&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=360&initlint=6&initol1=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

We’ve started some color here but it was definitely behind what I saw in SVT elevations last week. This is right now up here.

Extremely dry can lead to extreme run off until the ground gets moist enough to absorb rain.

I feel like it’s always stick season in the mtns for that weekend. Peeps are always like a good week late.

Total noob here. I follow this board pretty closely for weather info, and I understand about 10% of what I read. However, I'm learning. This comment really caught my eye. I was at Ground Zero for Matthew (and Florence) here in southeastern NC. I mean, we had Jim Cantore in our town and everything. One if the biggest issues with Matthew was that we'd had a lot of rain prior to that storm. Right now, however, it is extremely dry in most of our part of the state. I assume that would make a huge difference when comparing potential outcomes of this storm to Matthew, or am I totally off base?

Funny no one's talking about the 12z euro ai run...... Doesn't come to shore anywhere it lingers south until the high to north weakens and comes to the north east around 983 mb close to long island...

Busy doing yard work today, and it looks like I did not jinx the rain for later tomorrow! WB 18Z NBM for the weekend rain.

I have some maples near peak already. The Kanc/Lincoln will be funny Columbus day weekend with stick season well underway

That is a low record high, even for Westhampton. Meanwhile my high today was 81.

Newark has reached 86°. That's the fourth time it has reached 86° or above during the second half of September. The last time there were at least four such days during the second half of September was 2019 when there were five such days.

Yes, and he says that. But I suppose if September is well above normal it could in theory help October. I don't know, just passing it along basically.

I just emptied 1.65 out of the rain gage for the last 72 hour. Most of that fell late Wednesday night into yesterday morning.