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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^5-1-3 Opposite for + Oct NAO states. About matches the 80-year composite which is 55% opposite.
  3. GaWx
    Here’s the breakdown of Oct vs DJF NAO for +1.4+ Ninos since 1950: 2023: - + 2015: + + 2009: - - 1997: - N 1991: N + 1986: + - 1982: - + 1972: + + 1965: + - 1957: + - So, of the 5 +Oct, DJF was - thrice and + twice fwiw
  4. MANDA
    No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter. Almost seems like a given at this point. Storminess will abound. Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air. Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line. I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I mean do they have to be going for it from their own 10 with 1:00 up 21-7 and getting the ball in the 2nd half? I get the aggressiveness last week was good but not against TEN and Home lol
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  7. MANDA
    Nice graphic. Hard to envision a hurricane coming out of this but a wet TS affecting portions of the Gulf coast seems a like a reasonable expectation at this time.
  8. Deep Creek
    Areas justtttt to the S/E of me have had the better rains this summer, but looks like MBY got some of the heavier rains this time. 1.43” this weekend. Really good start to the month.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, but they have so many positive things happening? They are beating the spread for the game in the 1st half.
  10. WxUSAF
    Ravens have about as many penalty yards as offensive yards
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters (CPC).
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO has a pretty good opposite correlation between October and the Winter. It's the only month of the year where that is true! Actually since "discovering that" in 2005, it's flipped 13/22 times - monitoring it future-tense vs past-tense. The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters Lowest NAO Winter on record, 09-10, had a +1.51 Oct NAO. The Pacific usually holds the same pattern between Oct and the Winter, although sometimes in El Nino's the EPO flips historically, not sure if that's true over more examples.
  13. GaWx
    ‘23 JJAS PDO -2.4 ‘26 JJAS PDO -1.2
  14. olafminesaw
  15. michsnowfreak
    Perfect autumn weather
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 is a good analog because we don't have enough data! I think you're the one who posted about every Strong+ El Nino since the 1800s having positive or neutral PDO until 2023. The PDO has surprisingly high correlation number with US conditions historically. For the whole year it's almost the same as ENSO! Giving ENSO 0.55 and PDO 0.45 makes 23-24 the best analog since the 1800s, not to mention that since 2012/2013, recent analogs have worked much better than far-away ones.
  17. MJO812
    The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.
  18. BrianW
    @tamarack Helped my wifes uncle close up their lake cabin this weekend near Morristown, NJ. Some impressive tree damage from that July 3rd storm with lots of local reports of 75 -80 mph winds. Almost all the damage was red oaks that split around 25-50 feet up. There is a lot of old growth trees and tons of 100+ year old giant Tulip Poplars that didnt even loose a branch.
  19. Jebman
    Really sorry about your loss. My condolences to you. This reminds me of when my Dad passed away in 2018.
  20. alex
    First flakes in the forecast. Won’t be up to check lol
  21. alex
    lol the ball will slide nicely on the frozen grass
  22. Stormlover74
    A week out
  23. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  24. mitchnick
    Today’s aren't out yet.
  25. Chinook
    Fall heat wave with approximately 17 deg F above normal coming up for northern Colorado.
  26. MJO812
    Weeklies?
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