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  2. SJonesWX
    absolutely right. 73 degrees for a high today.
  3. Terpeast
    I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.
  4. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Hello AMWxers! This post from CIMSS has my attention. We all know what happened the other two record low hurricane years!
  5. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. That means the WCS PDO has warmed ~0.92 over just the last 9 reporting days, and that’s the highest daily WCS PDO since way back on June 30th:
  6. CAPE
    I'm not pessimistic, just one of several posts about the subjective nature of trying to glean details from the seasonal tools. They are all depicting the same general idea. Need the Aleutian trough to not be an eastward displaced beast all winter, and we should gets some shots of cold. Have to follow Judah to find out if the AO will be our friend.
  7. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  8. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  9. GaWx
    This is what I predicted on 8/24/26 for monthly/trimonthly RONI peaks (+3.0/+2.8), which would still be record warm peaks. I’m sticking with these for now. Let’s see what happens. I’ll use NOAA for verification, of course: “I’m now predicting that the actual monthly RONI peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm RONI going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models.”
  10. Today
  11. OSUmetstud
    And im talking about the peak. 3.4 taking a bit longer to get to the forecast heights does not mean that the peak will be wrong. The record trades are there..the record subsurface etc. The ecwmf from a few days ago had a RONI of 2.15 for July with a peak around 3.3C. The BOM RONI of 2.25 with a peak of 3.7C is not even that different relative to its own dataset.
  12. psuhoffman
    I share the same concerns, but a slightly warm seasonal avg would imply we "should" get cold periods because when it gets warm we tend to go crazy warm. I doubt we get a uniform near to slight above avg temp regime the whole winter. If we have volatility and it averages out to +2 that's fine...we can't snow anymore during warm periods anyways...just have to hit the big one during whatever cold we do get.
  13. tamarack
    We're at 34.76" to date here. Lowest of 29 water years is 34.44" for 10/01-9/02, 2nd lowest 35.86" the following year(s). I think we'll get more than 1.1" by the 30th to climb into 3rd driest. Next step is 38.08" last year and I think that getting another 3.32"+ this month is unlikely. 39 this morning, season's first sub-40, and now struggling to get past the mid-50s.
  14. rclab
    The sad irony is that the two in the 30’s were also the result of the actions of sentient sapiens. sorry Don … I had a very brief Tip channeling, even though I could not begin to come close to his depth or eloquence. As always …..
  15. Damage In Tolland
    Toorrrcchhh!!
  16. GaWx
    I said in my post that EVERY month since April verified significantly too warm. That’s five months in a row, not just August. I pointed out Aug because your two maps showed how much Aug had to be revised down. But April, May, June, and July also had to be similarly revised significantly down. Like for Aug, I’m talking about when each was the then current month. In other words, these were very poor forecasts considering they were then the first month. I’ve got all of the maps saved and can post them if necessary.
  17. Torch Tiger
    did someone call for big heat? that's nearly impossible after early September
  18. OSUmetstud
    I think assuming the relatively poor verification of a single month of August is bad logic. Every month prior to the past verified near or higher than models effectively. The warm water is still there and will eventually head west. BOM RONI forecast of 3.7 is effectively an ERSSTv6 RONI forecast of 3.0. Given the sst dataset and satellite integration. Its in line with other models just biased that warm direction.
  19. CoastalWx
    If we don’t get a dirty airmass with debris clouds 85-90 possible next week. It’s really toasty at 850.
  20. Brian5671
    That's above normal yes, but not big heat.
  21. donsutherland1
    The preliminary data reveal that Summer 2026 swept past Summers 1936 and 2021 to easily become the warmest summer on record for the contiguous United States. Five of the ten warmest summers have occurred since 2020. Just two occurred during the 1930s.
  22. GaWx
    In Sept of 2023, the UKMET did much better than the way too warm BoM and was about the best of all models. Sept ‘23 UKMET progged ONI peak ~+2.0, which verified almost perfectly: I’ll be anxiously awaiting the Sept ‘26 UKMET ONI peak forecast. Here’s August of ‘26: ~+3.0. Keep in mind that this is ONI, not RONI! https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina
  23. Ginx snewx
  24. BxEngine
    From nyack high school playing field complex.
  25. BxEngine
    Looks like back to the future lol
  26. FXWX
    Exactly... While arctic sand / powder storms might be hard to come by, ante is upped for slush bombs?
  27. Torch Tiger
    Ensembles are in agreement in above normal height fields and 2 meter temp anomalies for the first half of next week. This supports above normal temps for the first half of next week...mainly in the upper 70s to the middle 80s
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