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Low of 58. First mow day in a number of weeks here. Happy Friday, all.

82 / 59 - mid upper 80s today. Front is dry and passes through later. Cooler but another dry weekend / near normal. Overall warmer week and beyond. Scattered showers / storms mid week bring next rain potential otherwise dri. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

27 winters of >40 inches between 1869 and 1997 9 winters of >40 inches between 1998 and 2024 So the ratio is definitely in our favor, when adjusted for number of years it was 3:1 when it should have been more like 5:1. For the dud years though the ratio is 1:1!!! That should have also been more like 5:1 since it's the same time periods. Basically both feast and famine has been more represented over the last 30 years, but ratio wise the famine has been severly more pronunced.

It looks like there is some convection near the center on the latest satellite. But it has not yet completely wrapped around the center.

IRI plume def. more aggressive with La Nina. I think they have finally caught onto to an event that will will fall just shy of official designation. I called -0.5 to -0.7 ONI peak back in July and it looks like dynamical guidance now peaks at -0.71, statistical -0.53 and mean of all guidance -0.61. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html Will probably go onto to overcorrect a bit next month, too before tickling back later in the fall. Subsurface is quite stout, but I don't think we will have the trade clout to surface as much of that in region 3.4 as we did in 3 and 1.2.

I don't see ENSO being much of a factor in the overall regime this winter, or if anything, any influences of ENSO would be minimal for us. Given this, IMO, the biggest driver for the winter pattern across North America is going to be totally dominated by the PDO and secondly by short-term influences on the NP/PNA. At least in terms of SST structure, we are in a rather remarkable negative PDO right now and to the point of where you don't even have the strip of below average SSTs along the west coast of North America from the PAC NW into the Gulf of Alaska. Now, this could be a great thing and it could be a very bad thing. One big wild card I think will have to do with the Aleutian Low. Despite the -PDO last winter the Aleutian Low was relatively strong (though displaced towards the dateline) and that that didn't help us at all. One worry I have though is we are going to continue with the theme of very fast flow alot and something more along the lines of zonal (gradient). This would yield another super challenging short and medium range forecasting with models struggling with shortwaves, shortwave interactions, and storm evolution. A counter would be getting substantial help from the Arctic domain but my worry is much of our source region is going to be flooded with milder (with respect to climo) temperatures so even if we get a "good look Arctic" the delivery of "colder" temperatures is crap.

Anyone else excited to see that huge warm pool in the north Pacific?

Yea, well don't forget the E QBO. This shouldn't be a super nova +NAO that is devoid of blocking.

I can assure you, when we do get a good winter from NYC south, I doubt anyone will have actually forecasted it beforehand. including myself

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic

I would go north of Tahoe this season.

Cool, wet AM with heavy drizzle. HS football games in the area tonight are going to be sloppy. TH homecoming game tonight. Will be watching on Hudl My grandson is in his senior year.

It's disgustingly hot. Today has a mid July feel.

Sell

Love seeing the "blue" NWS headlines showing back up.

Its a solid shortwave (though becoming more of an open wave) with decent dynamics and forcing. This certainly isn't going to provide relief region wide but some folks will get lucky and get some rain.

Yep. May be time to invest in a cabin near Lake Tahoe lol.

My extra tropical Pacific composite actually looks just about identical to that BAM Atlantic composite. Primary Extratropical Pacific Analogs: 1971-1972, 2017-2018, 2021-2022, 2024-2025

We need it, or we’re going to have a rough wildfire season.

I’m going by daily reports I get with SSTAs in each enso region. The trend has been more weak basin wide going back several weeks. Of course today’s report shows a massive change cooler in 1.2 but for weeks it appeared to be weakening with a basin wide with 1.2 no longer the coolest-until again the latest report I saw today.

I read this in the NWS discussion for Chicopee, Mass., just now. I read it with great interest and some hope, of course! Upper level ridging begins to weaken and move off to the east with the associated surface high pressure doing the same to start next week. A trough over the Great Lakes moves towards the region as the high makes its exit. With high pressure shifting offshore, southerly to southwesterly flow kicks in Monday into Tuesday, increasing temperatures and moisture which may peak Tuesday according to ensemble guidance. Ensemble probs for temperatures 80F+ remain relatively high across much of eastern MA and the CT River Valley, though they have trended down slightly over the past few runs (not by much, but notable enough to hint at temperatures just reaching 80F rather than exceeding it). Ensembles are in good agreement in mean PWAT values ranging between 1.4-1.5" across the region by Tuesday afternoon, and deterministic and ensemble guidance hints at some instability that could support rain showers. However, given the extended dry weather we`ve seen, confidence remains low in these showers materializing. And if they do, it`s not likely that they provide the amount of rain we need for relief from these dry conditions.

Born and raised in Boston and Newton, now in Northampton (just moved here). Surprisingly, I have never been to the BigE, but Sunday is the day! Been to the Topsfield Fair, others in the area. This one, based on the brochure/flyer thing, considering Big Boi from Outkast, other musical acts, events, food, drink. I hear it's $20 to get in for the day, well worth it. And, of course, beautiful weather on tap. https://www.thebige.com/

Given the embryonic nature of this cool ENSO event, I'm not sure the -IOD is really going to couple with it enough to be a huge deal....bottom line is I would expect a weak La Nina response...this shouldn't be 2022-2023. However, I think the development of the -IOD does ensure that this will indeed be a cool ENSO season, and that the WPO is likely to be at least somewhat positive....two things that I had already been assuming.

There will be showers and thunderstorms around Tuesday, could even see an axis of some heavier rain up north (or in the vicinity of the warm front).

Looks similar, but I'm a bit more aggressive with some episode(s) of blocking per the easterly QBO/solar max composite.