IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The 12z GEFS shaghetti plots are encouraging. Quite a few members have developed low pressure near the US East coast early next week. The interesting note is that there seems to be another camp that is delayed almost 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Euro will likely be a stronger version of the UKMET, the GGEM is overbombing this in all likelihood...I think its safe to say assume a track like the UKMET and stronger and faster on the Euro....probably weaker than its 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The 12z GEFS shaghetti plots are encouraging. Quite a few members have developed low pressure near the US East coast early next week. The interesting note is that there seems to be another camp that is delayed almost 24 hours. I wish this storm can come in faster just in time the high up north is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Euro will likely be a stronger version of the UKMET, the GGEM is overbombing this in all likelihood...I think its safe to say assume a track like the UKMET and stronger and faster on the Euro....probably weaker than its 00Z run. How is the GGEM over bombing this? It's 1002mb when it crosses LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 How is the GGEM over bombing this? It's 1002mb when it crosses LI. I think he doesn't think that the GGEM track will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think he doesn't think that the GGEM track will verify. Maybe overamplifying was a better term, but we can let them answer for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think he doesn't think that the GGEM track will verify. While it's certainly on the Western edge of the guidance that has nothing to do with how much the low deepens. We have an eternity to go with this one. Sleepless nights this weekend waiting for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 While it's certainly on the Western edge of the guidance that has nothing to do with how much the low deepens. We have an eternity to go with this one. Sleepless nights this weekend waiting for the Euro. I'm working this weekend from 3pm-430am so I will be up anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 While it's certainly on the Western edge of the guidance that has nothing to do with how much the low deepens. We have an eternity to go with this one. Sleepless nights this weekend waiting for the Euro. Not gonna lose sleep with this one. This one is for the countryside not coastal plain, im almost certain about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Through 48 hours the northern stream vort is more amplified as compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Not gonna lose sleep with this one. This one is for the countryside not coastal plain, im almost certain about that Completely agree - will be a big storm in my opinion - but wet, not white for almost all on here. Still fun to watch the evolution and hone our skills/analysis for future storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Not gonna lose sleep with this one. This one is for the countryside not coastal plain, im almost certain about thatThoroughly agree. Antecedent airmass is crud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Euro has more southern stream involement, worlds apart from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro should come West, it's more amped up than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 More southern stream involvement this run, more amped up, likely will be in the UKMET/GGEM camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 More southern stream involvement this run, more amped up, likely will be in the UKMET/GGEM camp. It's slower then the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 OPC at 96 hrs hot off the press A face only a MOTHER could love ..... http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif check out the 936mb rain showers in the north atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It's slower then the GGEM. I'm talking about track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The initial vort is almost out running the trailing energy, 00z was faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 What happens with that initial vorticy doesn't appear to be important, moisture is blowing up off the mid-atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It's much slower to close off than 00z, and still has not as of hr 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 H5 energy is well south of the area and looks like it's trying to close off south of us, which would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looks like it will close off, just delayed, moderate precip over most of the area, heavy along the coast, initial glance looks too warm for snow in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Good amount of rain for the area up to hr 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 996mb south of the Twin Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 992mb just south of Suffolk County hour 111. Finnaly closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Stalling and occluding south of Long Island, temps starting to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hr 120 closed H5 low right over ACY. 996mb surface low over NJ coast. City starting to dry slot, big snows West of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 hr 123, vertically stacked and starting to fill, wrap around snows into the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looks like rain for everybody to me. 925 mb temps are +4 or +5C even back this way to start off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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