Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[HurricaneJosh]

The NHC released the official reanalysis findings of the 1946-1950 period.  Pretty cool stuff.  Of greatest interest to me: they upgraded King 1950 to a Cat 4 (115 kt).  This was a tiny but very violent cyclone that made a perfect, direct hit on Downtown Miami.  The RMW was 5 n mi or maybe even smaller, and the other radii were narrow as well-- so that while Downtown was getting totally raked, other parts of Metro Miami were hardly even getting gale-force winds.  Cool, weird little storm.

[Ed Lizard]

2004 was a decent season even w/ a somewhat warm ENSO, and I posted on Texas thread some 15 year old analysis done by an LCH met, since hurricanes are so very rare in SETX/SWLA, and many form from non-tropical systems, and a warm ENSO seems to correlate with non-tropical systems, there is no strong correlation between ENSO and IMBY.

 

WeatherGuy's TWC map seems to suggest that as well.

[NaoPos]

The NHC released the official reanalysis findings of the 1946-1950 period. Pretty cool stuff. Of greatest interest to me: they upgraded King 1950 to a Cat 4 (115 kt). This was a tiny but very violent cyclone that made a perfect, direct hit on Downtown Miami. The RMW was 5 n mi or maybe even smaller, and the other radii were narrow as well-- so that while Downtown was getting totally raked, other parts of Metro Miami were hardly even getting gale-force winds. Cool, weird little storm.

Micro cane?

[HurricaneJosh]

Micro cane?

 

Oh, totally.  King 1950 is literally the king of microcanes-- one of the best examples on record. 

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

2004 was a decent season even w/ a somewhat warm ENSO, and I posted on Texas thread some 15 year old analysis done by an LCH met, since hurricanes are so very rare in SETX/SWLA, and many form from non-tropical systems, and a warm ENSO seems to correlate with non-tropical systems, there is no strong correlation between ENSO and IMBY.

 

WeatherGuy's TWC map seems to suggest that as well.

 

To be fair though the 2004 Nino event didn't really get going until October when the season really shut down early.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Oh, totally.  King 1950 is literally the king of microcanes-- one of the best examples on record. 

 

I still wish we had satellite, etc. data of 1935 Labor Day.

[HurricaneJosh]

I still wish we had satellite, etc. data of 1935 Labor Day.

 

Yeah, actually, that was the microcane of microcanes-- even more than King.

[Will - Rutgers]

Just wanted to say hi and that I am looking forward to this year's tropical action. Seeing this beast of an extratropical storm spin up made me excited for some warm core stuff. Lets hope it's an interesting season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The NHC released the official reanalysis findings of the 1946-1950 period.  Pretty cool stuff.  Of greatest interest to me: they upgraded King 1950 to a Cat 4 (115 kt).  This was a tiny but very violent cyclone that made a perfect, direct hit on Downtown Miami.  The RMW was 5 n mi or maybe even smaller, and the other radii were narrow as well-- so that while Downtown was getting totally raked, other parts of Metro Miami were hardly even getting gale-force winds.  Cool, weird little storm.

I thought it'd be interesting to point out that they downgraded Hurricane Dog by a whopping 40 mph...from a 185 mph Category 5 to a 145 mph Category 4.

[Torchageddon]

Completely unscientific, of course, but if a moderate El Nino does develop, 2014 should be the year that we will be due for a season with 1 red meat US landfall with all other systems being crap...similar to 1992.  It's been a while since we've had a season like that, at least.

I was thinking a similar thing but now I'm backing off from that idea, there is little going for this upcoming Atlantic season to even produce 1 good TC. 2013 to me looked nearly perfect for a hyper-active season and instead became the worst hurricane season I've ever tracked. On top of that, Hurricane Andrew occurred out of El Nino conditions but 1992 is labeled such technically. There was atmospheric lag probably shutting down most of anything that wanted to get going but in the Pacific, there weren't any Nino-level readings when Andrew formed. The lag of El Nino maybe boosting instability worldwide might be too late for 2014 in the Atlantic so this stable airmass that is still around now will likely prevent anything of real interest to me from happening. When will this dreadful multi-year period in the Atlantic end? Relating to Andrew, I'd like to see how unstable it was in that region late August 1992.

 

Just wanted to say hi and that I am looking forward to this year's tropical action. Seeing this beast of an extratropical storm spin up made me excited for some warm core stuff. Lets hope it's an interesting season.

In the Pacific...

[Ed Lizard]

I was thinking a similar thing but now I'm backing off from that idea, there is little going for this upcoming Atlantic season to even produce 1 good TC. 2013 to me looked nearly perfect for a hyper-active season and instead became the worst hurricane season I've ever tracked. On top of that, Hurricane Andrew occurred out of El Nino conditions but 1992 is labeled such technically. There was atmospheric lag probably shutting down most of anything that wanted to get going but in the Pacific, there weren't any Nino-level readings when Andrew formed. The lag of El Nino maybe boosting instability worldwide might be too late for 2014 in the Atlantic so this stable airmass that is still around now will likely prevent anything of real interest to me from happening. When will this dreadful multi-year period in the Atlantic end? Relating to Andrew, I'd like to see how unstable it was in that region late August 1992.

 

In the Pacific...

 

 

My memory that long ago isn't perfect, but if there was one TD and no named storms before late August 1992 (Andrew), that sounds like a warn ENSO.  And Steve the Mod knows the last major (barely) hurricane to landfall in the HGX CWA was an warm ENSO season storm of non-tropical origin.

[GaWx]

My memory that long ago isn't perfect, but if there was one TD and no named storms before late August 1992 (Andrew), that sounds like a warn ENSO.  And Steve the Mod knows the last major (barely) hurricane to landfall in the HGX CWA was an warm ENSO season storm of non-tropical origin.

 

The 1992 hurricane season was a neutral season that followed just after El Nino for the prior fall/winter/spring. It certainly wasn't an incoming Nino like what appears to be the case this season.

[GaWx]

Yeah, Alicia in 1983 also formed following an El Nino that faded in the spring with more neutral summer conditions.

 

Bluewave, you seem to be a pretty objective and open person in general. What did you think about my just posted negative feedback AGW post regarding low clouds due to increased crops sizes due to increased CO2? If you have any thoughts about this, please post them there. Thanks.

[Ed Lizard]

At the risk of getting IMBY again, pure agony for the tight core snobs, but non-tropical systems like the 2008 Edouard (Canadian and NAM picked that up first, although if everything becomes a storm in their view, maybe that is to be expected) a low/no wind damage rain maker IMBY would be just what the doctor ordered.  And as mentioned before, warm ENSO may actually increase non-tropical origin systems.  1997 had 4 early non-tropical origin systems in June and July before the season really slowed down

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Based on winds, 1980's Hurricane Allen is now the strongest in the Atlantic on record.

 

Based on pressure, Camille is now the 6th most intense, and Katrina is now the 7th most intense.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140401_pa_reanalysisCamille.pdf

[ncforecaster89]

Thanks so much for providing the link to these long awaited results.

Three things immediately come to mind:

1) I'm guessing they must've come accrossed a previously undiscovered barometric pressure reading, on the coast, to justify lowering the landfall pressure from 909 mb to 900 mb.

2) With this new 900 mb landfall pressure estimate, did they also determine that Camille was actually strengthening up until landfall, or did it have an even lower central pressure out in the GOM? And if so, what was it?

3) I suspect that they used Katrina as a proxy storm in helping reassess Camille's landfall intensity.

With all these things in mind, I'm eagerly looking forward to reading the meta data, when it's finally released.

[Ed Lizard]

ENSO megathread makes me think a 1997 season, a few early non-tropical storms, than essentially a dead season.

 

I suspect tight core snobs will be going back to Okinawa and the West Pac again.  Not sure why the Euro doesn't like the EastPac in the JAS forecast from March 1st, but it doesn't, and last year was pretty tame.  Usually dead Atlantic seasons are good in the EastPac.

 

Between the apparent rather impressive warm ENSO, and the Euro, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

 

[ncforecaster89]

ENSO megathread makes me think a 1997 season, a few early non-tropical storms, than essentially a dead season.

I suspect tight core snobs will be going back to Okinawa and the West Pac again. Not sure why the Euro doesn't like the EastPac in the JAS forecast from March 1st, but it doesn't, and last year was pretty tame. Usually dead Atlantic seasons are good in the EastPac.

Between the apparent rather impressive warm ENSO, and the Euro, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

That is very surprising in that the El Nino (warm phase) ENSO that helps to inhibit TC activity in the N Atlantic, usually enhances TC activity in the East Pacific.

If you're correct in using 1997 as an analog year, its important to note that it was a very active season for the East Pac. Not only that, but it also spawned the most intense East Pac hurricane in recorded history (Linda). In addition, there was yet another category five formation in Guillermo, and a very destructive landfall from major hurricane Pauline, near Aculpoco.

At least we had an Atlantic hurricane landfall, albeit a minimal one (Danny), during that season in the Atlantic basin, as well.

All that being said, it is definitely a statistical anomaly to have a season in which both the N Atl. and East Pac are so dismal, relative to TC formations and impacts, as was 2013. Consequently, I would be very surprised to see both basins to be so suppressed during the 2014 season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Thanks so much for providing the link to these long awaited results.

Three things immediately come to mind:

1) I'm guessing they must've come accrossed a previously undiscovered barometric pressure reading, on the coast, to justify lowering the landfall pressure from 909 mb to 900 mb.

2) With this new 900 mb landfall pressure estimate, did they also determine that Camille was actually strengthening up until landfall, or did it have an even lower central pressure out in the GOM? And if so, what was it?

3) I suspect that they used Katrina as a proxy storm in helping reassess Camille's landfall intensity.

With all these things in mind, I'm eagerly looking forward to reading the meta data, when it's finally released.

The metadata has been out for a few days; Camille's entry is near the bottom of the page (give it a minute to load): http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_master.html

 

Reanalysis found that it intensified to a Category 5 in the southern Gulf, briefly weakened back to a Category 4 southeast of Louisiana, and then re-intensified into a Category 5 (and reached its minimum pressure of 900mb) near landfall.

 

The updated track:

 

[ncforecaster89]

The metadata has been out for a few days; Camille's entry is near the bottom of the page (give it a minute to load): http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_master.html

Reanalysis found that it intensified to a Category 5 in the southern Gulf, briefly weakened back to a Category 4 southeast of Louisiana, and then re-intensified into a Category 5 (and reached its minimum pressure of 900mb) near landfall.

The updated track:

Wow! Thank you so much for that link, as well. I was under the presumption that the metadata wouldn't be released until after the conclusion of the hurricane conference.

[wi_fl_wx]

In my opinion, the most interesting new fact about Camille is that it had concentric eyewalls at landfall. Margie Kieper did some incredible work putting together the radar loop and going through all of the personal accounts.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I'm surprised Camile strengthened heading over the shelf waters. That seemed to be part of the weakening of Katrina and Rita.

I would think it's smaller size allowed it to not stir up the ocean in front of its path as much. Katrina was upwelling cooler waters on its western side for a while before landfall.

Camile definitly had some serious winds in its eyewall based on the accounts from the hurricane hunters having never seen a sea state like they did with that storm. Again I think that is in part to its small size and inability to come anywhere close to a mature sea state. In a mature 45' sea with swell period in the 17-20 second range energy extends to great depth (over 1000'). Katrina and Rita both created swell in the 17-20 second range based on buoy observations. I would have to think Camile while of course having waves heights over 45' may not have exceeded 14 seconds

[bluewave]

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/2013season_short.pdf

 

Why the Atlantic was surprisingly quiet in 2013

by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach Preliminary Draft - March 2014 (Final draft by early June)

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses the causes of the unusual dearth of Atlantic hurricane activity in 2013. Most groups issuing seasonal forecasts called for an active season in 2013 and significantly busted their predictions.

We believe that the primary cause of the lack of 2013 hurricane activity was the unexpectedly large decrease in the strength of the Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation (THC) between the winter (January-March) and the spring (April-June) period. Our THC proxy discussed below shows that the winter to spring weakening of the THC was stronger than any previous year in our data records.

The reduction in our THC proxy was likely due to a temporary lowering of North Atlantic Ocean salinity content and a resulting decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water Formation (NADWF). This brought about a strengthening of the Atlantic sub-tropical oceanic and atmospheric gyre circulations. This increased the strength of southward advection of cold air and water in the eastern Atlantic. Cold advection, acting over several months, brought about a significant cooling within and to the north of the Atlantic’s hurricane Main Development Region, (MDR – 10-20°N; 60°W-20°W). These spring-induced tropical Atlantic changes lingered through the summer-early fall, and modified large- scale conditions such as vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, atmospheric stability, that acted together to generate an environment that was unfavorable for hurricane development in the MDR. As a consequence, the 2013 season experienced only two weak Category 1 hurricanes. Changes in strength of the THC primarily impact frequency of major hurricanes. Signals for tropical storms are much weaker.

[Ed Lizard]

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/2013season_short.pdf

 

Why the Atlantic was surprisingly quiet in 2013

by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach Preliminary Draft - March 2014 (Final draft by early June)

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses the causes of the unusual dearth of Atlantic hurricane activity in 2013. Most groups issuing seasonal forecasts called for an active season in 2013 and significantly busted their predictions.

We believe that the primary cause of the lack of 2013 hurricane activity was the unexpectedly large decrease in the strength of the Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation (THC) between the winter (January-March) and the spring (April-June) period. Our THC proxy discussed below shows that the winter to spring weakening of the THC was stronger than any previous year in our data records.

The reduction in our THC proxy was likely due to a temporary lowering of North Atlantic Ocean salinity content and a resulting decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water Formation (NADWF). This brought about a strengthening of the Atlantic sub-tropical oceanic and atmospheric gyre circulations. This increased the strength of southward advection of cold air and water in the eastern Atlantic. Cold advection, acting over several months, brought about a significant cooling within and to the north of the Atlantic’s hurricane Main Development Region, (MDR – 10-20°N; 60°W-20°W). These spring-induced tropical Atlantic changes lingered through the summer-early fall, and modified large- scale conditions such as vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, atmospheric stability, that acted together to generate an environment that was unfavorable for hurricane development in the MDR. As a consequence, the 2013 season experienced only two weak Category 1 hurricanes. Changes in strength of the THC primarily impact frequency of major hurricanes. Signals for tropical storms are much weaker.

 

 

Granted

1) This is from Wiki and

2) Through 2009

 

but- could we have a shorter than normal warm AMO and the complete lack of tropical excitement the last 5 years mark a transition back to generally slow tropical seasons with only the occasional big ticket storm?

 

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Granted

1) This is from Wiki and

2) Through 2009

 

but- could we have a shorter than normal warm AMO and the complete lack of tropical excitement the last 5 years mark a transition back to generally slow tropical seasons with only the occasional big ticket storm?

 

 

I doubt it.  Look at the previous two positive AMO phases.  Both have occasional periods of negative AMO within the overall positive AMO period.  We haven't had that yet under this positive AMO until now.

[Scott747]

So excited for the 2015 hurricane season!

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Klotzbach/Gray came out with their April forecast for the Atlantic at 9/3/1.

I think that is too much. Considering the forecasts showing yet again another unfavorable stability/pressure regime for this year as well as a super El Nino developing...I would not be surprised to see a final storm count of around 5/1/0 if not less.

[thewxmann]

Klotzbach/Gray came out with their April forecast for the Atlantic at 9/3/1.

I think that is too much. Considering the forecasts showing yet again another unfavorable stability/pressure regime for this year as well as a super El Nino developing...I would not be surprised to see a final storm count of around 5/1/0 if not less.

 

1 MH is definitely too bullish, but I think we could see more than 5 storms. Namewasters are a dime a dozen these days. Something like 7/2/0 sounds about right.

[Ed Lizard]

Klotzbach/Gray came out with their April forecast for the Atlantic at 9/3/1.

I think that is too much. Considering the forecasts showing yet again another unfavorable stability/pressure regime for this year as well as a super El Nino developing...I would not be surprised to see a final storm count of around 5/1/0 if not less.

Good match for the 1997 8/3/1

 

Just checked the Wiki, not a single August storm, 5 of those of non-tropical origin, and 1 of those being a post-season upgrade of a pre-season sub tropical storm.    39 days between named storms, Danny in July and Grace Erica in September.

 

We might get through 2014 with a single Atlantic hurricane forum.

 

 

Edit 2- Erika with a "k"...

[AvantHiatus]

Bust city coming for you guys if the ENSO is central or west-based. I think 2013 was a rogue year, trade wind speed and direction will need to be closely monitored as we move into Summer.

 

Additionally, for whatever reasons modoki el nino seasons seem to be more conductive for TC landfalls.