999 replies to this topic

[wisconsinwx]

BeastFromtheEast, on 21 February 2012 - 11:51 AM, said:

Looks like a solid couple of inches.. And it strengthens as it moves east. Nice.. I'll take that and run!

Considering we haven't seen a 2.5" event since mid January, we have to take an event like this.

[kab2791]

Latest GGEM brings a healthy amount of snowfall to souterrn WI and Central MI.

Clown map from GFS shows 6" here.

[Hoosier]

kab2791, on 21 February 2012 - 12:31 PM, said:

Latest GGEM brings a healthy amount of snowfall to souterrn WI and Central MI.

Clown map from GFS shows 6" here.

Gotta be liking the trends for a band of accumulating snow probably somewhere north of I-80, although I would trim whatever the clown maps have due to marginal temps at least for part of the event.

[WestMichigan]

Can we lock in the GFS solution for the next 2 weeks? I know it is fantasy, but that is about the best looking run I have seen all winter for this area.

[Jonger1150]

I like seeing the LES potential over the next 2 weeks. Really would like to see Allegan county get some heavy LES before "summerizing" my snowmobile. I'm 500 miles short of my goal of 2000miles on the season. All but 300 miles were in the UP.

[Jonger1150]

michsnowfreak, on 20 February 2012 - 10:27 PM, said:

Going up there first weekend of March, cannot WAIT. Havent been up there in 2 years, cancelled last year since we had deeper snowpack than them (ohhh to have THAT "problem" again). They look to be adding snow, and possibly a lot, in the next few weeks...so it looks like my gamble of waiting til March may have paid off. Its still a bad year for them, but better than nothing. From barren Minnesota to the snowless hills of New Hampshire, the fact that you still need to measure snowpack with a yardstick in the U.P. is a win in my book this year.

I guess we will find out. Just a heads up though, the snow east of Munising isnt very impressive. It has gone through 200 melt/freeze cycles and the snow is basically brown. This next 2 week period will be make or break for you though.

[Stebo48858]

Hoosier, on 21 February 2012 - 12:33 PM, said:

Gotta be liking the trends for a band of accumulating snow probably somewhere north of I-80, although I would trim whatever the clown maps have due to marginal temps at least for part of the event.

Agree, another trend I have noticed with respect to this event is a slow progression Southward with the band. The last 3 runs of NCEP models have shifted South.

[Ajdos]

Low is in S/Ohio at hour 72 EUro

[snowstormcanuck]

984 in the St. Lawrence Valley by 96 hours. I suspect it'll be less intense by 108 compared to the 0z run at 120. In any case, prime track for YYZ. I assume it's a modest hit.

[Stebo48858]

I certainly like the track of the Euro, digs the Northern Stream energy further South, probably would be a good hit for N IN/OH and S MI into ON

[Chicago Storm]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 01:22 PM, said:

984 in the St. Lawrence Valley by 96 hours. I suspect it'll be less intense by 108 compared to the 0z run at 120. In any case, prime track for YYZ. I assume it's a modest hit.

Stebo48858, on 21 February 2012 - 01:23 PM, said:

I certainly like the track of the Euro, digs the Northern Stream energy further South, probably would be a good hit for N IN/OH and S MI into ON

YYZ is once again the only area in this region that receives decent QPF that has wintery potential...

FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1	-0.2	1002	  80	  93	0.01	 543	 541  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3	-0.4	 998	  97	  95	0.15	 540	 542  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.5	-3.0	 994	  96	  83	0.10	 534	 539  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-7.2	 993	  84	  97	0.06	 520	 526  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.9	-7.4	 994	  63	  99	0.02	 515	 520  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.2   -10.6	1003	  72	  85	0.03	 518	 516

[snowstormcanuck]

Chicago Storm, on 21 February 2012 - 01:31 PM, said:

YYZ is once again the only area in this region that receives decent QPF that has wintery potential...

FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1	-0.2	1002	  80	  93	0.01	 543	 541  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3	-0.4	 998	  97	  95	0.15	 540	 542  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.5	-3.0	 994	  96	  83	0.10	 534	 539  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-7.2	 993	  84	  97	0.06	 520	 526  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.9	-7.4	 994	  63	  99	0.02	 515	 520  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.2   -10.6	1003	  72	  85	0.03	 518	 516

Another QPF reduction, even though the track seemed to shift west a bit. It's tough to see how this storm develops and not expect at least something in the 4-6" range. But that's the winter of 2011-12 for you.

[Stebo48858]

Chicago Storm, on 21 February 2012 - 01:31 PM, said:

YYZ is once again the only area in this region that receives decent QPF that has wintery potential...

FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1	-0.2	1002	  80	  93	0.01	 543	 541  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3	-0.4	 998	  97	  95	0.15	 540	 542  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.5	-3.0	 994	  96	  83	0.10	 534	 539  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-7.2	 993	  84	  97	0.06	 520	 526  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.9	-7.4	 994	  63	  99	0.02	 515	 520  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.2   -10.6	1003	  72	  85	0.03	 518	 516

I'd argue once again like last night, the BL temps are running too warm compared to everything else.

[OHweather]

Stebo48858, on 21 February 2012 - 11:34 AM, said:

This is why the NCEP models have different solutions they are keeping the 2 streams separate. Unfortunately the way this winter has gone that is solution that is better than 50% likely. Which is why Euro/Ukie is currently being discounted.

Yup, and the GFS ensembles continue to support the op WRT keeping the two streams separate:

 f72.gif   160.48K   2 downloads

The Euro and UK continue to phase the two streams (although the 12z Euro was a bit later with the phase and not as nuclear with the low) and I suspect the Euro ensembles will continue to have many members phase as well when they come out. I agree that phasing is the less likely solution at this point given seasonal trends and the likelihood that given the lack of blocking that it will be hard for the northern stream to get far enough south to phase with the subtropical jet energy.

[Angrysummons]

This type of setup is hard for models. Alot to handle.

[wxhstn74]

The fun has just begun:
Becoming more active as our "winter" begins to wind down. Models have a relatively stormy period the next week with Thu-Fri
the first in a series. The next one follows quickly on the heels Sun Night - Mon. This system remains strangely cold enough for mainly snow though
main energy and sfc low track N of SE Mich. Evidently she doesn't have enough time to pull any warm air the was pushed far south after our Fri buddy.
She does however seem to stick her feet in the Gulf for decent moisture...hmmm. A further south track and......

In any event, on the first system>>>>
http://weatherhistor...nter-storm.html

[toronto blizzard]

Wow I leave this forum for a month and I come back to look what's going on today and I see the potential for a storm for YYZ. Not going to get excited though as this winter has had enough dissapointment

[Snowstorms]

Latest GFS (18z) shows a widespread 3-6" across the region, from Southern MI thru SONT. Heavier amounts towards the Niagara/Buffalo region, closer to 6-8".

The GFS seems to be trending towards the Euro/Ukmet/JMA side. These pieces of vort energy and the jet stream displacement across the atmosphere will be hard to handle on the models, thus I'd expect a wide variety of solutions until we start seeing some consistency by tomorrow 0z runs.

I cant speak for the Nam....its more by it self lol.

[snowstormcanuck]

toronto blizzard, on 21 February 2012 - 04:26 PM, said:

Wow I leave this forum for a month and I come back to look what's going on today and I see the potential for a storm for YYZ. Not going to get excited though as this winter has had enough dissapointment

You've been gone for a month? I could have sworn I've seen you post.

In any case, 18z GFS should get your weenie up.

[toronto blizzard]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 05:28 PM, said:

You've been gone for a month? I could have sworn I've seen you post.

In any case, 18z GFS should get your weenie up.

Well more like I haven't been on the forums because this winter is so depressing but yeah that 18z run sure looks nice but would've been better if it phased the two pieces of energy together like the EURO. I'm assuming the EURO has a good storm for us?

[Snowstorms]

I know this isnt the climate change forum but despite the warm anomalies across most of North America, global temps continue to plunge...coldest on record on AMSU and have been for a while now. Lets see what UAH and RSS come out for February. UAH was at -0.10 for January, the lowest since March 2011.

This storm should have an impact on the storm following this, depending how fast or how slow this moves and the left over pieces of energy. Strong temp gradient pattern building for early march. let the fun begin.

[snowstormcanuck]

toronto blizzard, on 21 February 2012 - 05:34 PM, said:

Well more like I haven't been on the forums because this winter is so depressing but yeah that 18z run sure looks nice but would've been better if it phased the two pieces of energy together like the EURO. I'm assuming the EURO has a good storm for us?

slp plots look great. Actual QPF output is rather meh.

[QVectorman]

Yeah this one doesn't get my motor running. It's the best so far this season but it doesn't have great gulf connection or moisture field. I'm really hoping the euro phases the storm it has at 180hr. Then I'll be pumped

[toronto blizzard]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 06:03 PM, said:

slp plots look great. Actual QPF output is rather meh.

Really becuase it looked like there was a nice bullseye od 0.50-0.75'' QPF around us

[snowstormcanuck]

toronto blizzard, on 21 February 2012 - 06:40 PM, said:

Really becuase it looked like there was a nice bullseye od 0.50-0.75'' QPF around us

Joe posted the QPF text output for YYZ. It was about ~0.30" liquid equivalent. I saw the mslp plots from wundermap, looks like the heaviest stuff just misses us to the SE.

[michsnowfreak]

I will like to lock up the 18z op GFS, PLEASE!

[dmc76]

looks warm

[michsnowfreak]

dmc76, on 21 February 2012 - 07:56 PM, said:

looks warm

18z GFS verbatum is 0.64" qpf at DTW from about 8pm Thursday to 10am Friday, starting out as a little rain but quickly turning to snow...would KILL for it to verify. Which it wont, but hopefully its a trend.

[dmc76]

michsnowfreak, on 21 February 2012 - 08:00 PM, said:

18z GFS verbatum is 0.64" qpf at DTW from about 8pm Thursday to 10am Friday, starting out as a little rain but quickly turning to snow...would KILL for it to verify. Which it wont, but hopefully its a trend.

I like the GFS run even though Im on the northern Fringe. I just think temps will take to long to cool down. Thinking will be in the 40's for most of Thursday. Will see I guess. Maybe another 1.5" surprise similar to today.

[AppsRunner]

Looks to be a case where nobody in the area really benefits from a favorable storm track, other than Toronto. Even so, I doubt there will be any accumulations greater than 4" in this region.

[toronto blizzard]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 07:21 PM, said:

Joe posted the QPF text output for YYZ. It was about ~0.30" liquid equivalent. I saw the mslp plots from wundermap, looks like the heaviest stuff just misses us to the SE.

I know I saw that. Killed me when I saw it but still time for it to shift a little west but not too far west.

[michsnowfreak]

dmc76, on 21 February 2012 - 08:03 PM, said:

I like the GFS run even though Im on the northern Fringe. I just think temps will take to long to cool down. Thinking will be in the 40's for most of Thursday. Will see I guess. Maybe another 1.5" surprise similar to today.

Dynamic cooling can do wonders. Even look at DTWs obs today, when it was supposed to be rain here:
08am: 35F, Cloudy
09am: 36F, Lgt Snow
10am: 33F, Snow, Fog
11am: 33F, Lgt Snow
12pm: 34F, Lgt Snow
01pm: 35F, Fog
02pm: 38F, Fog

Also exactly 2 years ago today, we saw a 6-8" storm (which got ousted by the 10" storm a year later on nearly the same date), and I remember that storm it was in the low 40s up to the storms onset, and it immediately cooled down. So stuff like that isnt a big issue, but of course there are many other factors that need to be sorted out before we can get excited for this one.

[snowstormcanuck]

Wow, NAM is not budging from its idea of racing out that northern s/w.

[toronto blizzard]

snowstormcanuck, on 21 February 2012 - 09:22 PM, said:

Wow, NAM is not budging from it's idea of racing out that northern s/w.

It's the NAM. GFS should be more interesting

[snowstormcanuck]

toronto blizzard, on 21 February 2012 - 09:23 PM, said:

It's the NAM. GFS should be more interesting

It's been pretty consistent though. Plus it's the embodiment of the seasonal trend. But I'll take a consistent EURO over it any day.