580 replies to this topic

[snowstormcanuck]

The 2011-12 post mortem thread is going to make this thread look like a pep rally.

[weatherpsycho]

Funny how a storm like today's model well 24 hours in advanced with no significant NW (or SE) trend in the last 24 hours. If a major storm (like the one occurring today) is modeled to hit MBY there is ALWAYS a massive NW (or SE) trend in the last 24 hours. I really do understand why every major storm expected to hit this MBY always has some massive NW or SE trend yet other areas don't always have that problem.

I know other areas deal with trend at times too. I know the models are not perfect outside of my area. I am not saying that at all. Heck I have been saved by massive NW or SE trends before and gotten major storms when I was not expecting them.

My point is: It would be great for once to track a major storm expected to hit MBY in the last 24-36 hours. Watching the models & observations and not deal with some massive NW or SE trend. Being and the sweet spot and staying in the sweet spot and getting the sweet spot.

[weatherpsycho]

Typical. Just some rain today. No thunder. Nothing special. Now onto a windy night. Hopefully we don't lose power!

[dmc76]

 weatherpsycho, on 2 March 2012 - 05:17 PM, said:

Typical. Just some rain today. No thunder. Nothing special. Now onto a windy night. Hopefully we don't lose power!

Don't say that. That would just put the stamp on this crap fiesta of a winter

[michsnowfreak]

 weatherpsycho, on 2 March 2012 - 02:58 PM, said:

Funny how a storm like today's model well 24 hours in advanced with no significant NW (or SE) trend in the last 24 hours. If a major storm (like the one occurring today) is modeled to hit MBY there is ALWAYS a massive NW (or SE) trend in the last 24 hours. I really do understand why every major storm expected to hit this MBY always has some massive NW or SE trend yet other areas don't always have that problem.

I know other areas deal with trend at times too. I know the models are not perfect outside of my area. I am not saying that at all. Heck I have been saved by massive NW or SE trends before and gotten major storms when I was not expecting them.

My point is: It would be great for once to track a major storm expected to hit MBY in the last 24-36 hours. Watching the models & observations and not deal with some massive NW or SE trend. Being and the sweet spot and staying in the sweet spot and getting the sweet spot.

Actually not so sure about this storm staying constant. Though it wont be significant, any slight deviation in track is huge for northern MI. (And like any snow this winter the snow areas is not exactly huge lol). Im a little nervous being in Grayling right now, NWS saying might be tracking a bit west, and if I was in the Alpena area Id be a nervous wreck right now. They are saying some counties in far eastern northern MI may only get 1-3" after 0.75" rain, and 30 miles may be the difference between 3/4 inch rain and 8" snow.

[dmc76]

 michsnowfreak, on 2 March 2012 - 05:26 PM, said:

Actually not so sure about this storm staying constant. Though it wont be significant, any slight deviation in track is huge for northern MI. (And like any snow this winter the snow areas is not exactly huge lol). Im a little nervous being in Grayling right now, NWS saying might be tracking a bit west, and if I was in the Alpena area Id be a nervous wreck right now. They are saying some counties in far eastern northern MI may only get 1-3" after 0.75" rain, and 30 miles may be the difference between 3/4 inch rain and 8" snow.

Agree all ready took amounts away from a line HTL to ALP. 3-11" versus 8-15" earlier

[weatherpsycho]

 michsnowfreak, on 2 March 2012 - 05:26 PM, said:

Actually not so sure about this storm staying constant. Though it wont be significant, any slight deviation in track is huge for northern MI. (And like any snow this winter the snow areas is not exactly huge lol). Im a little nervous being in Grayling right now, NWS saying might be tracking a bit west, and if I was in the Alpena area Id be a nervous wreck right now. They are saying some counties in far eastern northern MI may only get 1-3" after 0.75" rain, and 30 miles may be the difference between 3/4 inch rain and 8" snow.

 dmc76, on 2 March 2012 - 05:28 PM, said:

Agree all ready took amounts away from a line HTL to ALP. 3-11" versus 8-15" earlier

These places you are mentioning have been shown to be on the southern edge of the models for the past 24 hours. If you are replying to my post I didn't say there would not be minor adjustments (as with every storm there screw zones). My point was about significant adjustments and for the past 24 hours the track has been pretty much nailed down (it is just about on Lansing right now and if you look at last nights posts about on Lansing is what it was showing). The models and my target if I could have had the weekend off would have been TC, Gaylord, Boyne City to Indian River. Looking at radar that remains the best target. Grayling was expected to be southern edge while it still can do well it would not have been my choice. Thing have remained relatively 'constant' with only minor shifts. This is something I would love to see happen IMBY with one of the major snowstorms. For whatever reason when the models target MBY it ends up with some major shift.

Again I not saying MBY is always missed by storms. That would be an incorrect statement for sure as I have seen several 12-16" storms. I think the closest I have seen model perfection IMBY is the Dec 2000 or April 2005 (this one had a NW trend but the NAM nailed it if I recall correctly 24-36 hours while the other models played catch-up).

[michsnowfreak]

 weatherpsycho, on 2 March 2012 - 09:51 PM, said:

These places you are mentioning have been shown to be on the southern edge of the models for the past 24 hours. If you are replying to my post I didn't say there would not be minor adjustments (as with every storm there screw zones). My point was about significant adjustments and for the past 24 hours the track has been pretty much nailed down (it is just about on Lansing right now and if you look at last nights posts about on Lansing is what it was showing). The models and my target if I could have had the weekend off would have been TC, Gaylord, Boyne City to Indian River. Looking at radar that remains the best target. Grayling was expected to be southern edge while it still can do well it would not have been my choice. Thing have remained relatively 'constant' with only minor shifts. This is something I would love to see happen IMBY with one of the major snowstorms. For whatever reason when the models target MBY it ends up with some major shift.

Again I not saying MBY is always missed by storms. That would be an incorrect statement for sure as I have seen several 12-16" storms. I think the closest I have seen model perfection IMBY is the Dec 2000 or April 2005 (this one had a NW trend but the NAM nailed it if I recall correctly 24-36 hours while the other models played catch-up).

Oh yeah I know you said its pretty much been nailed down, not that there wouldnt be minor changes. Thats why I said, though no significant variances in track, minor ones would create big sensible weather differences. Will have to see final snow totals, but Im thinking this was a typical storm where models way overdid qpf at first, they had blobs of 2"+ qpf in NW lower...again dont want to speak til totals come out, but I doubt that we will see any crazy totals like that. I gambled on where to go, I still like my choice. Wont be NEAR the jackpot for storm, but WAS near jackpot for snowdepth so tomorrow should be great!

EDIT looks like Leelenau is raking it in! may be some places WILL have insane totals, just not so widespread.

[weatherpsycho]

 michsnowfreak, on 2 March 2012 - 10:11 PM, said:

Oh yeah I know you said its pretty much been nailed down, not that there wouldnt be minor changes. Thats why I said, though no significant variances in track, minor ones would create big sensible weather differences. Will have to see final snow totals, but Im thinking this was a typical storm where models way overdid qpf at first, they had blobs of 2"+ qpf in NW lower...again dont want to speak til totals come out, but I doubt that we will see any crazy totals like that. I gambled on where to go, I still like my choice. Wont be NEAR the jackpot for storm, but WAS near jackpot for snowdepth so tomorrow should be great!

You are still in a great spot to enjoy this storm bulleyes will be near you and sightseeing is in your future tomorrow. Oh yeah I know QPF is overdone on the models with these major storms. I wasn't expecting 2'+ snow totals out of this.

[Hoosier]

Yeah, I know it's technically spring.  GFS took a big step toward the Euro with next week's storm.  Could be a crappy outcome here...too far west for the storm but too far east for the warmth. At least it will be quick.

[frostfern]

Mmmm... At this point I think it's pretty safe to say winter is officially over. A couple days ago I thought we might be able to add at least a dusting or so to the seasonal total today. That didn't pan out. Just virga overhead and a few cold rain sprinkles today.

[IWXwx]

frostfern, on 28 April 2012 - 12:39 PM, said:

Mmmm... At this point I think it's pretty safe to say winter is officially over. A couple days ago I thought we might be able to add at least a dusting or so to the seasonal total today. That didn't pan out. Just virga overhead and a few cold rain sprinkles today.

Over? The winter of 2011-'12 was dead on arrival. It was preceded by pundits proclaiming anticipation of joy, hope and widespread pleasurable fulfillment for all who lusts after and loves winter. Instead, it's decomposing body emitted a horrendous stench for months as mourners cried and gnashed their teeth, hoping for a miraculous revival. The least we can do is now give it a decent burial (using a snow shovel).

[michsnowfreak]

IWXwx, on 28 April 2012 - 01:35 PM, said:

Over? The winter of 2011-'12 was dead on arrival. It was preceded by pundits proclaiming anticipation of joy, hope and widespread pleasurable fulfillment for all who lusts after and loves winter. Instead, it's decomposing body emitted a horrendous stench for months as mourners cried and gnashed their teeth, hoping for a miraculous revival. The least we can do is now give it a decent burial (using a snow shovel).

Whats funny is your area had near normal snowfall Funny how it can work out in a winter that seems so...not there! We were well below normal here, but also well out of futility mark. At 26", looking at 132 years of records, we were about 15" below average but 13" above the grand futility mark, not even making the top 20 least snowy list. This is definitely one winter to bury and move on.

[frostfern]

michsnowfreak, on 28 April 2012 - 07:06 PM, said:

Whats funny is your area had near normal snowfall Funny how it can work out in a winter that seems so...not there! We were well below normal here, but also well out of futility mark. At 26", looking at 132 years of records, we were about 15" below average but 13" above the grand futility mark, not even making the top 20 least snowy list. This is definitely one winter to bury and move on.

Yea. It seems like there was just enough snow to make for some deceptively treacherous commutes. Most of this winter's "storms" were rain followed by 1-2" of slush and a flash-freeze that turns every untreated surface into an instant skating rink. It was the worst of all possible winters. Incredibly dull and unremarkable in every way but still managing to be a pain in the ass. I've also noticed that people no longer seem to know how to drive on snow and ice around here.

[michsnowfreak]

frostfern, on 29 April 2012 - 07:22 PM, said:

Yea. It seems like there was just enough snow to make for some deceptively treacherous commutes. Most of this winter's "storms" were rain followed by 1-2" of slush and a flash-freeze that turns every untreated surface into an instant skating rink. It was the worst of all possible winters. Incredibly dull and unremarkable in every way but still managing to be a pain in the ass. I've also noticed that people no longer seem to know how to drive on snow and ice around here.

Meh, people never seem to know how to drive in snow . Yes, many of our snows left the roads just slushy or wet, yet the few snows we had that were very cold and required adequate road care (Jan 15, Jan 20, Feb 10), the plows were quite late and road conditions a mess. It was completely understandable in the past 4 winters when they went WAY overbudget on snow-removal, but there was NO excuse this winter, the few cold snows we had the road crews should have had the roads pristine.

[frostfern]

michsnowfreak, on 30 April 2012 - 02:47 PM, said:

Meh, people never seem to know how to drive in snow . Yes, many of our snows left the roads just slushy or wet, yet the few snows we had that were very cold and required adequate road care (Jan 15, Jan 20, Feb 10), the plows were quite late and road conditions a mess. It was completely understandable in the past 4 winters when they went WAY overbudget on snow-removal, but there was NO excuse this winter, the few cold snows we had the road crews should have had the roads pristine.

Well you'd think they'd eventually learn in a place like Grand Rapids MI. In my experience a wet partially sticking snow during the day with temperatures falling well below freezing just as the snow tapers off leads to the worst experience on untreated roads. A cold snow actually provides traction as long as you avoid spinning in place or locking the brakes. It can still get slick where it's been heavily packed by other drivers though. A thick layer of black ice underneath an inadequate amount of snow is the worst though, mainly because drivers always underestimate the lack of traction and go flying off the road into trees and such.

[Powerball]

michsnowfreak, on 30 April 2012 - 02:47 PM, said:

Meh, people never seem to know how to drive in snow . Yes, many of our snows left the roads just slushy or wet, yet the few snows we had that were very cold and required adequate road care (Jan 15, Jan 20, Feb 10), the plows were quite late and road conditions a mess. It was completely understandable in the past 4 winters when they went WAY overbudget on snow-removal, but there was NO excuse this winter, the few cold snows we had the road crews should have had the roads pristine.

It's sort of like when you get the light rains in the summer that accumumlate just enough to make the streets "damp" and "slippery", but not enough to actually flood the streets and force people to slow down.

The funny thing about most snows this season is just enough fell to make the roads a hot mess, but it wasn't enough top force people to drive as if they had some sense.

This is including the events you listed. The only event I'd say was plowable this season was that one powder storm I believe we had on January 15th, where the streets and freeways were completely covered. Even then, a good salting would have melted that off right away on the main streets and highways.

Usually, the streets have to become rutted (which takes 4"+ of powder, maybe more with wet snow) before people will drive like they have some sense.

[michsnowfreak]

Powerball, on 11 May 2012 - 09:25 PM, said:

It's sort of like when you get the light rains in the summer that accumumlate just enough to make the streets "damp" and "slippery", but not enough to actually flood the streets and force people to slow down.

The funny thing about most snows this season is just enough fell to make the roads a hot mess, but it wasn't enough top force people to drive as if they had some sense.

This is including the events you listed. The only event I'd say was plowable this season was that one powder storm I believe we had on January 15th, where the streets and freeways were completely covered. Even then, a good salting would have melted that off right away on the main streets and highways.

Usually, the streets have to become rutted (which takes 4"+ of powder, maybe more with wet snow) before people will drive like they have some sense.

That powder event on Jan 20th was probably the worst for complete freeway coverage because it was 2-3 inches of 8-11:1 ratio sugar with temps in the low-mid teens and no wind. Its ironic that we had a snowfall like this in the 6th warmest winter on record, as many colder, more active winters dont see a synoptic snowfall with temps that cold.

Jan 20, 2012, approx 11pm, sugar snow glued to the roads with temps 15-20F BELOW freezing


The Feb 10/11th event was actually wild once the near 0 visib snow had tapered because thats when the wind picked up, and thats when plows like to start (after the heaviest snow falls). Some roads in more open areas were windswept clean, others had foot+ snowdrifts. It was easily the best snowstorm of the winter here, in both inches and drifts (had a couple foot drifts imby). With a 4.9" fall imby, the first 2 inches or so fell with temps hugging the 32F mark, the last 3 inches fell with temps taking a quick tumble into the teens.

Feb 10, 2012, approx 11pm, snow starting to drift where not packed down.


As cool as the arctic front was, its a shame that it was the only 4"+ snow of the entire winter. The previous 4 winters had tallied 27 storms of 4"+ (11 of which were 6"+)!!! Its now mid-May, the worst of spring allergies have passed (but are certainly not done lol), so putting the winter of 2011-12 to rest, hoping it was just one blip in a snowy cycle.

[frostfern]

I think Grand Rapids got the worst departure from average due to an unusual lack of significant inland lake effect events. The immediate lake shore counties fared much better with a couple good NNW flow dumps in early January.

March 3 was the slush/freeze black ice event I'm recalling. Back edge of the system that created the tornado outbreak.

[Trent]

Just wait until we have a late winter again, e.g. where the majority of snow falls in March and April. With the past handful of winters ending quite abruptly it will be a rude awakening to John Q Public even if the next year has just normal March and April snowfall.

[michsnowfreak]

Trent, on 13 May 2012 - 01:19 PM, said:

Just wait until we have a late winter again, e.g. where the majority of snow falls in March and April. With the past handful of winters ending quite abruptly it will be a rude awakening to John Q Public even if the next year has just normal March and April snowfall.

So true. You have to go back to 2008 for a snowy March here. We had average snow in March 2011, but coming after that wonderful winter, it probably seemed like not much. Then of course March 2009, 2010, and 2012 were near snowless. Something we havent seen in ages but happened several times in the 1930s and 1940s was above normal snow very early and late in the season, with the core of winter (DJF) seeing wayy below normal snow. Lately we have been seeing well above normal snow in DJF, but below in N,M,A, the season still averaging above, so in a way you could say winters tend to be somewhat shorter but noticeably more harsh than they used to be (if I were to make a blanket statement like grandpa going uphill to school). Which quite frankly, Id certainly prefer seeing 150% of seasonal snowfall crammed primarily into 3 months rather than 75% of seasonal snow drawn out over 6 months.