1003 replies to this topic

[Steve]

Here we go again..another winter..another forum for our viewing pleasure..Let's keep it fun and clean and civil!!

[Steve]

!!

[Hoosier]

We already have a winter speculation thread. This seems a little redundant unless I'm missing something.

[Steve]

Hoosier, on 25 October 2011 - 04:20 PM, said:

We already have a winter speculation thread. This seems a little redundant unless I'm missing something.

I have made this thread 4 years now..We all in Ohio like it.. Plus i am always asked to keep it going..

[Alek]

Hoosier, on 25 October 2011 - 04:20 PM, said:

We already have a winter speculation thread. This seems a little redundant unless I'm missing something.

If it contains OH posters I'm all for it.

[Hoosier]

Steve, on 25 October 2011 - 04:22 PM, said:

I have made this thread 4 years now..We all in Ohio like it.. Plus i am always asked to keep it going..

If the OV folks want their own general winter thread then that is ok. I wasn't sure if you meant this to be a winter forecast thread which we already have. Guess I had a temporary brain freeze.

[Steve]

Hoosier, on 25 October 2011 - 04:33 PM, said:

If the OV folks want their own general winter thread then that is ok. I wasn't sure if you meant this to be a winter forecast thread which we already have. Guess I had a temporary brain freeze.

Just a general talk all about the winter thread..

[Thundersnow12]

Alek, on 25 October 2011 - 04:32 PM, said:

If it contains OH posters I'm all for it.

Agreed.

[snowstormcanuck]

Alek, on 25 October 2011 - 04:32 PM, said:

If it contains OH posters I'm all for it.

Thundersnow12, on 25 October 2011 - 05:23 PM, said:

Agreed.

Seriously guys, can we keep the flame fanning in OT.

[Stebo48858]

snowstormcanuck, on 25 October 2011 - 05:31 PM, said:

Seriously guys, can we keep the flame fanning in OT.

Done.

[Chambana]

Let's talk winter?! We still need our first freeze here

[Trent]

snowstormcanuck, on 25 October 2011 - 05:31 PM, said:

Seriously guys, can we keep the flame fanning in OT.

Agreed.

I don't even know why I post on this board anymore. Yes, there is a poster or two from somewhere in Ohio who trolls, but the constant blame all Ohio posters is getting old after several seasons. Enough so that it's pushed several posters who offer great analysis and even a pro met off the boards for good.


Thanks guys!

[OHweather]

Have seen frost 2/3 nights here to the southeast of Cleveland. October 23rd is a little late for our first frost as a lot of areas typically freeze by then around here, but it's a start.

CLE still has some snow mixing in Thursday-Saturday nights mainly in the higher elevations to the east of Cleveland. Nothing significant, but enough to get us in the mood, which is all you can ask in October. The graphical forecasts show that NWS Pittsburgh is also expecting some light snows over southeast OH Friday night as a wave rides along the front well to the south, could be cold enough that parts of Wilmington's CWA might also see some mangled flakes mix in.

[pondo1000]

Steve, on 25 October 2011 - 04:08 PM, said:

Here we go again..another winter..another forum for our viewing pleasure..Let's keep it fun and clean and civil!!

Good to see everyone again. Looking forward to the posts and chatter this winter. I am excited about all the winter forecasts out there, but am trying to temper that excitement b/c as we all know, they can BUST!

[NEOH]

OHweather, on 25 October 2011 - 07:59 PM, said:

Have seen frost 2/3 nights here to the southeast of Cleveland. October 23rd is a little late for our first frost as a lot of areas typically freeze by then around here, but it's a start.

CLE still has some snow mixing in Thursday-Saturday nights mainly in the higher elevations to the east of Cleveland. Nothing significant, but enough to get us in the mood, which is all you can ask in October. The graphical forecasts show that NWS Pittsburgh is also expecting some light snows over southeast OH Friday night as a wave rides along the front well to the south, could be cold enough that parts of Wilmington's CWA might also see some mangled flakes mix in.

There has been some frost on the rooftops but that's been it. This doesn't seem too out of the ordinary... but I'm a little closer to the lake than you. Hopefully we'll see a few flakes later in the week. I wouldn't mind seeing a front loaded winter for a change... it's been awhile since we've had a snowy Nov/Dec. Early season LES events are always interesting.

[Trent]

NEOH, on 26 October 2011 - 08:03 AM, said:

There has been some frost on the rooftops but that's been it. This doesn't seem too out of the ordinary... but I'm a little closer to the lake than you. Hopefully we'll see a few flakes later in the week. I wouldn't mind seeing a front loaded winter for a change... it's been awhile since we've had a snowy Nov/Dec. Early season LES events are always interesting.

A little taste of November 1996 would be nice. The lack of a freeze is nothing unusual close to the lake though, but I suspect that CLE is going to be a bit later than the avg of Oct 25. The latest at the airport is November 12, so a long way to go.

BKL can easily make it to December with just a freeze or two the entire month of November. Sometimes, the lakeshore can have snow before the first feeze.

[NEOH]

Trent, on 26 October 2011 - 11:20 AM, said:

A little taste of November 1996 would be nice. The lack of a freeze is nothing unusual close to the lake though, but I suspect that CLE is going to be a bit later than the avg of Oct 25. The latest at the airport is November 12, so a long way to go.

BKL can easily make it to December with just a freeze or two the entire month of November. Sometimes, the lakeshore can have snow before the first feeze.

I was just looking at info on Nov '96 this morning... that may be a once in a lifetime event. There have a been a few years that I can remember snow without having a frost first.

A lot of the forecasts are calling for it to be cold and snowy in the Ohio Valley. Hopefully this winter delivers. I could certainly see areas from Central MI down to N KY and on Northeast cashing in with big snows.

[Steve]

We have had frost here..1 or 2 nights..We have been down to around 30 here..Looking forward to all the talk this winter!

[OHweather]

It looks like our best shot at snow in OH out of this whole ordeal will probably be late this afternoon and into this evening in the higher elevations to the south and east of Cleveland as the 850mb temps drop to -3 to -4 and while there is still some synoptic moisture in the area. Model skew-ts are showing wetbulb 0's down to around 1800 feet by this evening, so it's not unreasonable to assume that with some steadier or decent precip rates a little frozen precip may make it to the ground above 1000 feet in that relatively short window this evening. There will also be some moisture into the snow growth region through about 0z before the synoptic moisture really pulls out, which means if we do get cold enough some snow may actually fall, instead of just seeing drizzle due to the moisture being trapped/limited to the lowest part of the atmosphere.

 skew-t.png   55.73K   0 downloads

Overnight, the atmosphere will really dry out. There will be enough instability for lake effect processes as the NAM skew-t above shows, but my guess is any precipitation will be widely scattered in nature, although I suppose a widely scattered rain/snow shower will be possible in north-central to northeast OH overnight given some decent lake induced instability.

Temperatures will already be in the lower 40s over the northern portions of the state by sundown, so where things can clear overnight there should easily be a freeze. CLE will probably need freeze warnings for the vast majority of its CWA, with the only possible exceptions being the lake shore and perhaps the Snow Belt where some cloud cover may hang on overnight, although it will only take a few hours of clearing for temps there to fall below freezing given the airmass in place and high pressure overhead, meaning a very light boundary layer flow. My guess is areas outside of Columbus, Dayton and maybe even the northern/eastern suburbs of Cincinnati will get cold enough for frost as well, so a cold night for much of the state.

[NEOH]

OHweather, on 27 October 2011 - 06:56 AM, said:

It looks like our best shot at snow in OH out of this whole ordeal will probably be late this afternoon and into this evening in the higher elevations to the south and east of Cleveland as the 850mb temps drop to -3 to -4 and while there is still some synoptic moisture in the area. Model skew-ts are showing wetbulb 0's down to around 1800 feet by this evening, so it's not unreasonable to assume that with some steadier or decent precip rates a little frozen precip may make it to the ground above 1000 feet in that relatively short window this evening. There will also be some moisture into the snow growth region through about 0z before the synoptic moisture really pulls out, which means if we do get cold enough some snow may actually fall, instead of just seeing drizzle due to the moisture being trapped/limited to the lowest part of the atmosphere.

Overnight, the atmosphere will really dry out. There will be enough instability for lake effect processes as the NAM skew-t above shows, but my guess is any precipitation will be widely scattered in nature, although I suppose a widely scattered rain/snow shower will be possible in north-central to northeast OH overnight given some decent lake induced instability.

Temperatures will already be in the lower 40s over the northern portions of the state by sundown, so where things can clear overnight there should easily be a freeze. CLE will probably need freeze warnings for the vast majority of its CWA, with the only possible exceptions being the lake shore and perhaps the Snow Belt where some cloud cover may hang on overnight, although it will only take a few hours of clearing for temps there to fall below freezing given the airmass in place and high pressure overhead, meaning a very light boundary layer flow. My guess is areas outside of Columbus, Dayton and maybe even the northern/eastern suburbs of Cincinnati will get cold enough for frost as well, so a cold night for much of the state.

Yep, definitely looks good for a frost/freeze over much of Ohio the next few nights. NE lakeshore area will probably not clear out tonight however. Everything is pretty much dead/dormant so the official end to the growing season is just a technicality at this point.

[OHweather]

NEOH, on 27 October 2011 - 10:55 AM, said:

Yep, definitely looks good for a frost/freeze over much of Ohio the next few nights. NE lakeshore area will probably not clear out tonight however. Everything is pretty much dead/dormant so the official end to the growing season is just a technicality at this point.

Ya. At this point (with most of the leaves down and not much green, except for lawns which will not be so perky after the next few nights) just want to get snow in here as fast as possible, hate staring at bare vegetation with cloudy, rainy skies and temps in the 40s.

[NEOH]

OHweather, on 27 October 2011 - 12:40 PM, said:

Ya. At this point (with most of the leaves down and not much green, except for lawns which will not be so perky after the next few nights) just want to get snow in here as fast as possible, hate staring at bare vegetation with cloudy, rainy skies and temps in the 40s.

Well, the wait for snow might not be too long looking at the GFS, and to some extent the Euro. The GFS is showing 850's at -6 to -8 later next week. That would certainly support snow.

[Trent]

NEOH, on 27 October 2011 - 10:55 AM, said:

Yep, definitely looks good for a frost/freeze over much of Ohio the next few nights. NE lakeshore area will probably not clear out tonight however. Everything is pretty much dead/dormant so the official end to the growing season is just a technicality at this point.

Yeah. I was quite surprised to see a frost advisory out for tomorrow morning. It's October 28th, does one really need to be warned this late in the season that a frost might occur?

[Trent]

NEOH, on 27 October 2011 - 03:40 PM, said:

Well, the wait for snow might not be too long looking at the GFS, and to some extent the Euro. The GFS is showing 850's at -6 to -8 later next week. That would certainly support snow.

With the impending rare east coast snowstorm this Saturday, I can't help but think there'll be some LES bands developing with snow over the higher terrain or at least some scattered snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will be NW, with 850's around -5, and moisture being thrown back. A slightly more west track up the coast would be better.

[Nic]

Trent, on 27 October 2011 - 05:06 PM, said:

With the impending rare east coast snowstorm this Saturday, I can't help but think there'll be some LES bands developing with snow over the higher terrain or at least some scattered snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will be NW, with 850's around -5, and moisture being thrown back. A slightly more west track up the coast would be better.

You might get that the way the models have trended.

[NEOH]

Trent, on 27 October 2011 - 04:30 PM, said:

Yeah. I was quite surprised to see a frost advisory out for tomorrow morning. It's October 28th, does one really need to be warned this late in the season that a frost might occur?

Good call by OHWeather re: the clearing last night. I was surprised it cleared out so rapidly. Everything was covered in frost this morning. Temp went down to 32 IMBY. I guess that will be the last frost advisory.

[Trent]

Another top ten rainiest month at CLE. Currently we are in 5th place at 5.84", but 4th is 5.85", and 3rd is 5.88" so any passing shower will bump us up.

Some of the high res models are picking up some showers overnight Saturday. I still think places like Chardon will get some flakes out of this.

[NEOH]

Trent, on 28 October 2011 - 08:01 AM, said:

Another top ten rainiest month at CLE. Currently we are in 5th place at 5.84", but 4th is 5.85", and 3rd is 5.88" so any passing shower will bump us up.

Some of the high res models are picking up some showers overnight Saturday. I still think places like Chardon will get some flakes out of this.

Yep. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few snow showers around Saturday night.

It's way out in lala land... but late next week things could get interesting around here.

[OHweather]

NEOH, on 28 October 2011 - 07:31 AM, said:

Good call by OHWeather re: the clearing last night. I was surprised it cleared out so rapidly. Everything was covered in frost this morning. Temp went down to 32 IMBY. I guess that will be the last frost advisory.

I thought it might take longer, but once the rain shield moved out the clearing was literally right behind it. No real lake response. Their was frost on my car at 9pm when I left, was quite surprised.

[OHweather]

It's snowing lightly at Akron/Canton, with a light rain/snow mix at Youngstown on the backside of the Nor'easter. Very close. I doubt the synoptic snows affect greater Cleveland, although there will be some nice lift as a shortwave moves overhead today. Given the cold air aloft some grauple could fall if some showers pop up like what happened over MI yesterday.

Another fairly widespread freeze as well this morning, I suspect we are done with frost/freeze headlines till spring as was discussed yesterday.

[Trent]

OHweather, on 29 October 2011 - 08:00 AM, said:

It's snowing lightly at Akron/Canton, with a light rain/snow mix at Youngstown on the backside of the Nor'easter. Very close. I doubt the synoptic snows affect greater Cleveland, although there will be some nice lift as a shortwave moves overhead today. Given the cold air aloft some grauple could fall if some showers pop up like what happened over MI yesterday.

Another fairly widespread freeze as well this morning, I suspect we are done with frost/freeze headlines till spring as was discussed yesterday.

Yeah, I even had a freeze here at the coast with a heavy frost. Appears BKL only hit 34, which is literally built on sediment fill a quarter mile from the original shoreline. So it appears most everyone has had a freeze now.

I was hoping that some of the backend snows would have made it this far west. I'm tempted to drive a bit to the east to see the snow, you'd probably only need to drive an hour before you'd see a dusting, but the light accumulations probably aren't worth it.

[OHSnow]

Trent, on 29 October 2011 - 08:58 AM, said:

Yeah, I even had a freeze here at the coast with a heavy frost. Appears BKL only hit 34, which is literally built on sediment fill a quarter mile from the original shoreline. So it appears most everyone has had a freeze now.

I was hoping that some of the backend snows would have made it this far west. I'm tempted to drive a bit to the east to see the snow, you'd probably only need to drive an hour before you'd see a dusting, but the light accumulations probably aren't worth it.

Yeah, it appears pretty much all of CLE's CWA has had a freeze now, with the exception maybe of the immediate shoreline around BKL/downtown Cleveland and the Erie Islands. Also, first snowflakes of the year in the eastern parts of the CWA. Judging by temps in the mid 30s and the fact that the precipitation was very light, I'd imagine there wasn't any accumulation. But you never know with the YNG ruler. LOL.

Pittsburgh has been getting light to moderate snow for the past several hours, though, so I'd imagine they've picked up an inch or two this morning down there.

[jbcmh81]

Trent, on 28 October 2011 - 08:01 AM, said:

Another top ten rainiest month at CLE. Currently we are in 5th place at 5.84", but 4th is 5.85", and 3rd is 5.88" so any passing shower will bump us up.

Some of the high res models are picking up some showers overnight Saturday. I still think places like Chardon will get some flakes out of this.

Both Dayton and Cincinnati have already had their wettest year on record. Columbus is almost 12" above normal for the year, but still several inches below the record.

[Trent]

jbcmh81, on 29 October 2011 - 12:26 PM, said:

Both Dayton and Cincinnati have already had their wettest year on record. Columbus is almost 12" above normal for the year, but still several inches below the record.

It's just been an incredibly wet year for Ohio. Cleveland broke their all time wettest year last week. Looks like it will be a 60"+ year for both CVG and CLE, absolutely incredible.

Any correlation between wet years and the following winter?

[Steve]

We here in Newark OH have been in the mid to upper 20"s the past two nights..So we have had our hard freeze..26 this morning.....I do believe if i am correct, a wet fall leads to a snowy winter..I could be wrong..Anyone with information on that would be great!!