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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji
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It would have to be near perfect to snow like that, here is what I think is going against us.

1.No real good source of HP

2.Tomorrow will get up into the 40s which will hurt chances

That 1-2 inches would be on grassy surfaces, shouldnt be a problem for the major cities.

We all know that, weenie. When snow comes down hard enough and melts on contact, the surface gets COOLER. And it keeps getting cooler and cooler until it's cold enough for snow to stick. Once that happens, it doesn't matter if the previous day was 70 degrees.

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The big thing to me is that the NAM and GFS are both advertising less and less precip while we are warm. An ideal scenario would be to miss the first warm slug and then just catch the cold ULL stuff. I think some are still thinking heavy rain for hours and hours before snow and I am starting to think that idea is bunk.

we'll see in the end but i think today has been a move toward the idea of 500 ruling over the surface depiction in any range. the euro could be steadfast in the initial warmth surge and maybe less snwo overall and the american models could be wrong, but it's hard not to like the look the last 48 hrs or so and obviously the idea before that when in more fantasy range.

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The big thing to me is that the NAM and GFS are both advertising less and less precip while we are warm. An ideal scenario would be to miss the first warm slug and then just catch the cold ULL stuff. I think some are still thinking heavy rain for hours and hours before snow and I am starting to think that idea is bunk.

Yes I agree it would be ideal . So what are we looking at for duration of frozen preciptation in our area if this GFS/NAM scenario plays out? It changes over sometime between 48-54 and is outta here by 60 basically. That would imply some impressive rates for a couple hours at least if the GFS qpf is close.

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Also, sun angle and time zone issues.

Because the sun angle is better aligned with the apps this time of year we get a good bit of sun damming and that is a problem. I don't worry about the time zone stuff until daylight savings. That's when you see a serious uptick in temp because of the extra hour of daylight.

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Things are getting very exciting now........for a while I thought I'd be screwed while my home gets a sizable storm, but I like that I 95 is starting to look much better.

But of course there's still reason to be wary but I think I'll at least see something. Heck, I'd love to even see another Feb 2010 type event (Feb 2, that is).

I'll eat my textbooks if we see a Feb 2010-esque event here. Accumulation after rain in an urban environment is never something that I would want to count on. But, you know, last year seemed to thread the needle every time, why not now? Who needs rain?

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Marty Bass isnt a met, hes a wannabe..Bob Turk is he Cheif met there...Not really the place to discuss but if I have to rank Baltimore tv mets it would be 1. Tom T 2. Tony Pann. 3. Justin Berk. 4. John Collins. 5. Vytus Ried 6. Bob Turk then the others

I pretty much only watch WBAL on a regular basis...Anyway, I think the 18z runs are a bit on the top end side...Im thinking around 2-4 in Baltimore myself with 3-6 in the burbs

Marty Bass... :lmao:

Is he still on the air? It was funny when he got busted for propositioning an undercover cop that he thought was a hooker.

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I kinda smile everytime someone mentions the H5 track being the cause. I said a week ago what I liked about this setup was the look at h5 and that it had support from all guidance at that time, GFS/Euro/GGEM. Things started to look very bleak a few days ago when it seemed the timing of the storm was going to be absolutely horrible and come directly between cold shots. This has been the complete opposite of every other storm we have deal with this year. In all those the H5 was crap but the models showed a nice looking surface map from 7 days out. Then we had to watch as it corrected and the surface slowly started to look like sh*t also. This time the H5 has been good consistently for a week, and now we are seeing the surface look better as we move towards gametime. This is why when we do model threads and post graphics I wish the H3, H5, and H7 progs would get posted more and the surface less. The precip and nice drawn in blue line are pretty to look at but total bullsh*t most times from a week out.

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you know, there's a clipper of sorts moving through the GL and that, I believe is going to save our butts

here's links to current slp, 3 hrs pressure drops and wind streamlines off Unysis

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=st&inv=0&t=cur

the front hanging south off the clipper has made it as far east as western Indiana as of 5 PM (go back to previous hours to see its progression)

that should make it through our area by tomorrow at this time

otoh, if you see the wind shift not progress east come tomorrow morning, we could be in trouble

and no, I'm not saying the models don't see this, just mentioning it because I believe it to be an important feature and, possibly, the saving grace y=to us getting snow

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I kinda smile everytime someone mentions the H5 track being the cause. I said a week ago what I liked about this setup was the look at h5 and that it had support from all guidance at that time, GFS/Euro/GGEM. Things started to look very bleak a few days ago when it seemed the timing of the storm was going to be absolutely horrible and come directly between cold shots. This has been the complete opposite of every other storm we have deal with this year. In all those the H5 was crap but the models showed a nice looking surface map from 7 days out. Then we had to watch as it corrected and the surface slowly started to look like sh*t also. This time the H5 has been good consistently for a week, and now we are seeing the surface look better as we move towards gametime. This is why when we do model threads and post graphics I wish the H3, H5, and H7 progs would get posted more and the surface less. The precip and nice drawn in blue line are pretty to look at but total bullsh*t most times from a week out.

im sure you're in heaven.. ;) i think the bigger issue in range was just it's range.

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Because the sun angle is better aligned with the apps this time of year we get a good bit of sun damming and that is a problem. I don't worry about the time zone stuff until daylight savings. That's when you see a serious uptick in temp because of the extra hour of daylight.

who was it that actually asked if the extra hour of sunlight would hurt our chances for snow a few years ago when they moved daylight savings time into early March. That was so classic.

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I'll eat my textbooks if we see a Feb 2010-esque event here. Accumulation after rain in an urban environment is never something that I would want to count on. But, you know, last year seemed to thread the needle every time, why not now? Who needs rain?

When it snows hard enough, it is only a matter of time before it starts sticking. There's no way we get .5"+ of QPF as snow, in a few hours, and have no accumulation.

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I have way too much experience with surface temps killing accumulations down here around DCA to completely discount the idea. I've watched it snow moderately for hours with not a thing to show for it sitting at 34 while a short drive up the Parkway past Rosslyn it's 32 with significant accumulations. I'm cautiously optimistic on this one though.

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Going on record... all snow immediately north and west of IAD. Book it

I would tend to agree with this. Last year Dec 5 IAD saw 5 inches while dc barely got a half an inch. I think there will be a period of light rain even at IAD NW, but it will transition to snow much quicker than DC.

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who was it that actually asked if the extra hour of sunlight would hurt our chances for snow a few years ago when they moved daylight savings time into early March. That was so classic.

Can remember for the life of me but that is exactly why I said it. That was one of the more comical posts since I've been on the board.

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I have way too much experience with surface temps killing accumulations down here around DCA to completely discount the idea. I've watched it snow moderately for hours with not a thing to show for it sitting at 34 while a short drive up the Parkway past Rosslyn it's 32 with significant accumulations. I'm cautiously optimistic on this one though.

Examples?

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I would tend to agree with this. Last year Dec 5 IAD saw 5 inches while dc barely got a half an inch. I think there will be a period of light rain even at IAD NW, but it will transition to snow much quicker than DC.

And somehow Frederick was just about shut out of that event.....maybe a .5'. Areas all around us were 5-8".

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