WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Those are some pretty extreme differences at 48 hours. Considering that's only 2 days into a run, that's amazing. Where is this energy now? Just coming onshore in BC? Gonna be wild to watch the models for the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks miller b-ish so far at 78hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow...jumping in here; our threads are dead, tonight. GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ... The surface looks more like an incoming clipper at hour 60 than a Miller A in the works.. Same with the 500 mb.... http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_060m.gif But the 500 has no where to go but south because of the big vortex over the maritimes. I doubt it will be as wet as the last two runs but it probably will be wetter than a straight clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow...jumping in here; our threads are dead, tonight. GL. what a coincidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Those are some pretty extreme differences at 48 hours. Considering that's only 2 days into a run, that's amazing. Where is this energy now? Just coming onshore in BC? Gonna be wild to watch the models for the next two days. Still way off the coast south of the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 snow at 84 hr dc 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what a coincidence Huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can you make tha abnoxius, ugly sig, any smaller? terrible forecasting too. Ya'll failed all your forecasts. Pretty sure everyone did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Colder, but drier. 500 track seems fine, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm thinking that trailing s/w still in Canada is going to be a player, and not a good one at that http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_078l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Huh the mention of a Miller B and then your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the mention of a Miller B and then your post Dude, I haven't even looked at the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 so the EURO gives us 3 inches of liquid and the GFS gives us nothing? Are these models forecasting for the same planet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There's virtually no gulf moisture in the storm now. Last night had multiple inches of rain in Dixie. Dart board models again. What's the point of even tracking? This solution is nothing like the socialist models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dude, I haven't even looked at the run. I didn't say you had I said it was a coincidence, didn't I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 meh ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 will the euro fold to the gfs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so the EURO gives us 3 inches of liquid and the GFS gives us nothing? Are these models forecasting for the same planet? GFS is going to give you over .50" at least. oops .25" or more. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I didn't say you had I said it was a coincidence, didn't I? Yes....sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Perhaps DTK can elaborate. I do know the NAM expanded its domain sometime in the recent past--but it still is initialized by older GFS runs along its outer domain as well (0Z NAM would be initialized with the 18Z GFS--if I understand it correctly)--another reason to give it less credence when the system in question is tracking in from the Aleutians. I don't have much to add as I'm not even sure I fully understand why the NAM had (still has?) a drift in the large scale (though there are various hypotheses related to the model itself, various DA aspects including bias correction of satellite data, etc.). The NAM domain nowadays is actually quite large (see below)...so lateral boundary conditions shouldn't be an issue for most of the CONUS part of the domain for most of the integration. I think that we've seen pretty big improvement since going to partial cycling instead of allowing the NAM to cycle on itself. I'm not in the meso-group, so I may not have this exactly right (I don't know exactly what what states they use and how far they go back for partial cycling...but basically before each analysis, the NAM is started from a previous GFS state (from 12 hrs ago all fields, not just the boundaries). Then, a series of analyses and forecasts of the NAM are run leading up to the actual initialization time, at which point the full 84 hour forecast is run (the lateral boundary conditions for this are updated using the previous GFS fcst, from 6 hours ago). I think the cycling is 3 hourly leading up to initialization time (in other words, it starts from a GFS forecast, assimilates obs, runs a short NAM forecast, assimilates more obs, runs another short NAM forecast, etc.). This allows the NAM to start from a large scale that is like the GFS, but try to resolve scales / features at its own resolution and consistent with its own dynamics. This essentially cuts off any possible "drift" in the large scale, at least relative to the GFS, since it's forced to do a complete restart from a global state very so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There's virtually no gulf moisture in the storm now. Last night had multiple inches of rain in Dixie. Dart board models again. What's the point of even tracking? This solution is nothing like the socialist models. I have this copied for just these posts. Yeah exactly. The inevitable "THE MODELS SUCK!" comments are going to come out in these patterns. The models are doing fine. It is a nod to human ingenuity that these models can even suggest these threats 5-7 days in advance. Kudos to them; no kudos to the people who believe models suck if they can't nail down threats a week in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Still way off the coast south of the Aleutians. I'm pretty sure there will be Alaska and/or Hawaii based recon missions as part of WSR 2011 in the coming days. The flight they sent out of Japan this morning (obs made it into 12z) was technically targeted for an Alaskan event, but the more data the better . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Bullseye moves north. It has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the drift north is unmistakable http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p36_102l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Incredible stuff - the globals are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is going to give you over .50" at least. i'll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Bullseye moves north. It has begun. looks like we saw the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 its a complete outlier right now....its a fooking Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i'll take the under I edited when I saw it was under. lol. Time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.