lwg8tr0514 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Winter Storm Watch is needed soon, and also like to point out is i don't compare every storm to those big events, maybe you could get your facts straight!!!!!!!!!!!! 5-10 inch snowfall is likely, and there is no dry slot issue for us, plain and simple I admire you sticking your neck out there North Pitt and taking the abuse. I hope you are right here. The 6z NAM shows 5 inches or so you maybe right on the low end. 2-4" now that is a silly utterance by Government Weather. They always hedge once the flakes start flying, so expect a 180 or a 90 from them by tommmorrow as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow guys chill. Seriously, most of us know realistic totals, and writing 20 posts calling someone out when we all know its wishcasting, or bittercasting, is just as annoying as the person calling for 93 every storm. I'm sure pretty much everyone else in here is getting as sick of it as me, lets just discuss the weather, and maturely disagree so that maybe some people can learn a thing or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 All I am going to say and be done with it is Wish casting is against forum rules. And, we have two posters who work/intern at the NWS, and one red tag who pops in. Lets have some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Low please come back!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Winter Storm Watch is needed soon, and also like to point out is i don't compare every storm to those big events, maybe you could get your facts straight!!!!!!!!!!!! <LI style="LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; LIST-STYLE-IMAGE: none"> <LI style="LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; LIST-STYLE-IMAGE: none"><H4> </H4> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAM has sliced our snowfall totals and QPF Looks like heaviest snow will fall between 1AM and about 5AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow guys chill. Seriously, most of us know realistic totals, and writing 20 posts calling someone out when we all know its wishcasting, or bittercasting, is just as annoying as the person calling for 93 every storm. I'm sure pretty much everyone else in here is getting as sick of it as me, lets just discuss the weather, and maturely disagree so that maybe some people can learn a thing or two. Yeah, it's kinda embarrassing to read such emotional disco. over a 3-5" clipper. But seriously though, this will probably be a solid fast moving system. 3-5" over only a 8-10 hr period is still a good bit of snow, especially if you gotta be somewhere. The energy still looks good, and although the moisture won't be abundant, the angle of the trough might squeeze out a few more inches for the area. I am probably way off base with this, but it cracks me up to see, no matter how hard they try to hide it, a person's true face eventually starts to show itself. And at this point all you can do is laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah, it's kinda embarrassing to read such emotional disco. over a 3-5" clipper. But seriously though, this will probably be a solid fast moving system. 3-5" over only a 8-10 hr period is still a good bit of snow, especially if you gotta be somewhere. The energy still looks good, and although the moisture won't be abundant, the angle of the trough might squeeze out a few more inches for the area. I am probably way off base with this, but it cracks me up to see, no matter how hard they try to hide it, a person's true face eventually starts to show itself. And at this point all you can do is laugh. You're not off base... It's arguing by.....or caused by.... the same people who have been previously banned multiple times by either here or Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You're not off base... It's arguing by.....or caused by.... the same people who have been previously banned multiple times by either here or Eastern. ya know, i belong in the central pa thread, but i come over and read about whats happening to my west. It didn't take me long to wonder about some of these posters which was way off of what everyone else had ops wise. etc. I don't blame you guys for gettin piised off. I'd have them down to 5 posts a day, maybe that would curb their "enthusiasm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Interesting that accuweather has it snowing in Pittsburgh for basically a 7 hour area from 5PM-Midnight Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I admire you sticking your neck out there North Pitt and taking the abuse. I hope you are right here. The 6z NAM shows 5 inches or so you maybe right on the low end. 2-4" now that is a silly utterance by Government Weather. They always hedge once the flakes start flying, so expect a 180 or a 90 from them by tommmorrow as the storm approaches. That's fine....just give us some technical details on why you see that as a silly call. This looks every bit like a 3 to 5" type storm. The NWS has been excellent lately. Again....we do not get 10" synoptic snowstorms in Pittsburgh off of an OPEN WAVE, PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. In times where QPF blows up at the last minute, there are features which are driving that. Also, the GFS's so called "dry and SE bias" is not that in every situatuation....just situations where rapid cyclogenesis is taking place. That is NOT the case here, and thus QPF is not going to magically double. . We are better served learning the upper air setups analogous with major Pittsburgh snowstorms, and spend less time theorizing about government agendas, and inspiring a mega weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 In a storm like this, if you say 3-5" Thats fine, I agree with that call, but to rip another person/organization for going 2-4" just seems picky and silly.. BTW, Looks like all models are starting to come together for one solution. looks like a overall a 2-4" swap for us, with some 5" totals not out of the question. I think looks at GFS and NAM you will need to go by past I-80 and East Mountains to get about 5-6" and even that looks pretty close to 5-6".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mid-Next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The NWS keeps saying that the dry slot is going to limit us to advisory type totals for this next system. Are they trying to say that if we don't get dry slotted that we could see better than advisory type totals? The way I see it, I really don't see us getting dry slotted, but I still don't think we see more than 4 or 5 inches out of this anyway. Maybe I'm reading too much into what they are saying. Just sounded to me like they're saying it's the possible dry slot itself that keeps our totals down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 240 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011 PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-200400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0005.110120T2100Z-110121T1100Z/ LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-GREENE- WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA... BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY... LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG... DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY... WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE... LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION... TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE... FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN 240 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. * ACCUMULATION: 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING: LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW COVERED. * VISIBILITIES: REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NWS still calling for 3-5 inches from the synoptic storm. Looks good I think with most of SWPA within the .25qpf range and decent ratios although 2-4 may be what the majority of people see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That looks like a good track for us! Unfortunately it doesn't have a lot of support and some mets were saying the overall evolution does not make a lot of sense. At one point the Southern stream shortwave basically stays put for 24 hours allowing the northern stream to catch up and phase. Obviously this is not likely though with a neutral to slightly positive NAO around that time a more inland solution is plausible.. Still something to track which is what we are all here for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 2:30 PM Disco .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OPEN AND RATHER PROGRESSIVE...THINK SNOW TOTALS FROM THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL BE KEPT DOWN A BIT. POST SYSTEM NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH DEEP NW FLOW LIMITED TO ABOUT 12 HOURS IN DURATION AND A RELATIVE SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASED MIXED LAYER DEPTH...THINK LAKE/UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY TIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS...AND 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR/RIDGES. OVERALL...EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE TROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES FROM THE POST SYSTEM LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE FRIDAY. I like the 1-4 LES mention...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Alright cool, I'm ready for a nice little advisory event that could drop up to 5 inches. Not to mention we have storms to track, that aren't necessarily even fantasy range. I pretty much agree with the Nws 3-5 seems like a good bet, and as was already mentioned, being that this is a fast mover, that is a good amount of snow for a quick storm. It will be nice to build back our snow pack as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Blah on LES.. I do well with it, but its so hit and Miss.. Seems like it follows 422 down to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Alright cool, I'm ready for a nice little advisory event that could drop up to 5 inches. Not to mention we have storms to track, that aren't necessarily even fantasy range. I pretty much agree with the Nws 3-5 seems like a good bet, and as was already mentioned, being that this is a fast mover, that is a good amount of snow for a quick storm. It will be nice to build back our snow pack as well. That Euro track for next week would be great for both of our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That Euro track for next week would be great for both of our areas. Yeah, right now it looks awesome. Def something to travel, but we all need to use some caution with it. How did this look 5-7 days out? As for this event, its always great to snow, but Both NAM and GFS keeps us under 5" for most part. I really don't see LES being a big issue here and neither do those models. NAM has snow coming in for a bit Friday Night, but its very light. Both models show afternoon to be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Great little discussion from NWS State College this afternoon. Wish KPIT went into more detail like this: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SHALLOW BKN- OVC STRATO CU DECK MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WILL BE TOPPED BY A LAYER OF THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ON THURSDAY...AND BEGIN ACROSS THE EAST TWD MIDNIGHT. THE FORCING INITIATING THE SNOWFALL WILL BE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SLUG OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT OF THE UPPER JET THAT WILL BE TIGHTENING UP AND SLIDING OFF JUST TO OUR SOUTH. QPF LOOKS MEAGER SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DUE TO SOME HIGH SNOW-WATER RATIOS WHICH BUF KIT HINTS AT WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEING APPROACHED BY A SHORT LIVED BUT POTENT AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MOST OF THIS SHUD OCCUR THURS NIGHT AND IS ADDRESSED BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Karl, you are definitely rants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 For those of you that have to go out tonight, be careful out there. It's slick in some spots from the freezing drizzle that has been falling today. I almost fell on my ass in a parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 For those of you that have to go out tonight, be careful out there. It's slick in some spots from the freezing drizzle that has been falling today. I almost fell on my ass in a parking lot. Yeah, hit a few patches of ice on 40.. WTAE had some areas, especially east 4-8" Also, according to NAM Looks good for some snow Friday night for a few hours could re slicken things. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kpit.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Great little discussion from NWS State College this afternoon. Wish KPIT went into more detail like this: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SHALLOW BKN- OVC STRATO CU DECK MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WILL BE TOPPED BY A LAYER OF THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ON THURSDAY...AND BEGIN ACROSS THE EAST TWD MIDNIGHT. THE FORCING INITIATING THE SNOWFALL WILL BE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SLUG OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT OF THE UPPER JET THAT WILL BE TIGHTENING UP AND SLIDING OFF JUST TO OUR SOUTH. QPF LOOKS MEAGER SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DUE TO SOME HIGH SNOW-WATER RATIOS WHICH BUF KIT HINTS AT WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEING APPROACHED BY A SHORT LIVED BUT POTENT AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MOST OF THIS SHUD OCCUR THURS NIGHT AND IS ADDRESSED BELOW. They easily have some of the best discussions. They go into great detail and really break stuff down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Also, according to NAM Looks good for some snow Friday night for a few hours could re slicken things. Why is it "good" to "slicken things"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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