Thunderhead Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The NWS keeps saying that the dry slot is going to limit us to advisory type totals for this next system. Are they trying to say that if we don't get dry slotted that we could see better than advisory type totals? The way I see it, I really don't see us getting dry slotted, but I still don't think we see more than 4 or 5 inches out of this anyway. Maybe I'm reading too much into what they are saying. Just sounded to me like they're saying it's the possible dry slot itself that keeps our totals down. "Dry slot" in its most classical definition is the area on the southwestern side of the mid-level (say 700 mb) low that experiences drying due to drier air getting wrapped into the cyclone. In this setup, I think "dry slot" is a bit misleading because the system has not been projected to have a well-defined mid-level low. What we are seeing is more of a potent shortwave trough quickly moving across the region. East of the mid-level trough axis, upward vertical motion is favored. Once the trough axis moves eastward past your location, precip is basically over. Also, re: lake-effect/enhancement ... some is possible but keep in mind that Lake Erie is freezing up. Would probably make a Huron connection even more important for meaningful lake-effect/enhancement in SW PA. (I'm not saying a Huron connection will occur with this system ... just that it would be more important in any possible future LES events.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why is it "good" to "slicken things"? I'm guessing he forgot to put a period after "hours". I hope that's the case anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Also, ratios should be good with this system. Perhaps 15:1 based on projected soundings. Given the current consensus QPF among various models, am thinking about 0.3" liquid equivalent should fall at KPIT. That converts to 4.5" snow, the arithmetic average of NWS PIT's 3-6" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm guessing he forgot to put a period after "hours". I hope that's the case anyway. I did.. Sorry! I never wish for Ice, I have as long of a commute as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ok sooo Jeff V, on the 6 o'clock newscast, says...."there's reports of icy roads, but NOTHING to do with the weather except when it's cold-anything wet will freeze."....as I walked down the street just now I'm being hit with frozen precip and street is an ice rink!....is he REALLY that concerned with not alarming anyone when, in fact, there IS a reason to be alarmed...and not just because of cold temps but THERE IS FROZEN PRECIP FALLING!!!!..... how damn annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OPEN AND RATHER PROGRESSIVE...THINK SNOW TOTALS FROM THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL BE KEPT DOWN A BIT. POST SYSTEM NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH DEEP NW FLOW LIMITED TO ABOUT 12 HOURS IN DURATION AND A RELATIVE SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASED MIXED LAYER DEPTH...THINK LAKE/UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY TIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS...AND 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR/RIDGES. OVERALL...EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE TROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES FROM THE POST SYSTEM LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND VERY COLD AIR...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE LOWEST READINGS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...WITH SUBZERO POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. WITH SOME RESIDUAL WINDS OF 4-8 MPH...WIND CHILL READINGS OF -4 TO -8 WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE PIT METRO AREA...WITH -10 TO -15 FOR THE RIDGES. DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ok sooo Jeff V, on the 6 o'clock newscast, says...."there's reports of icy roads, but NOTHING to do with the weather except when it's cold-anything wet will freeze."....as I walked down the street just now I'm being hit with frozen precip and street is an ice rink!....is he REALLY that concerned with not alarming anyone when, in fact, there IS a reason to be alarmed...and not just because of cold temps but THERE IS FROZEN PRECIP FALLING!!!!..... how damn annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 "Dry slot" in its most classical definition is the area on the southwestern side of the mid-level (say 700 mb) low that experiences drying due to drier air getting wrapped into the cyclone. In this setup, I think "dry slot" is a bit misleading because the system has not been projected to have a well-defined mid-level low. What we are seeing is more of a potent shortwave trough quickly moving across the region. East of the mid-level trough axis, upward vertical motion is favored. Once the trough axis moves eastward past your location, precip is basically over. Also, re: lake-effect/enhancement ... some is possible but keep in mind that Lake Erie is freezing up. Would probably make a Huron connection even more important for meaningful lake-effect/enhancement in SW PA. (I'm not saying a Huron connection will occur with this system ... just that it would be more important in any possible future LES events.) Also, ratios should be good with this system. Perhaps 15:1 based on projected soundings. Given the current consensus QPF among various models, am thinking about 0.3" liquid equivalent should fall at KPIT. That converts to 4.5" snow, the arithmetic average of NWS PIT's 3-6" forecast. Thanks for the explanation. Also helps to understand why it is important to be on the NW side of the 700mb low which on Eastern I believe I remember you saying Joe Denardo always used in determining if a snowfall was going to be more significant for the Pittsburgh area. Seems pretty reasonable for qpf / ratios as you mentioned for a sold 3-5 inch snowfall. How about Todays 12z Euro for the system early next week, decent track to bad the flow is so convoluted with different short waves that that particular solution doesn't have much merit to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ok i will go with a snowfall general with be 4-8 inches, some areas will get 8+ in ridges!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is a short quick fun event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Only gives us 10% chance for 4" Mountains get 40% chance for 4" and 10% for 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Only gives us 10% chance for 4" Mountains get 40% chance for 4" and 10% for 8" Now, I have a question about those HPC Prob. Maps. It says on that map, valid 00z Fri thru 00z Sat. Does that mean it is showing the percentages of how much snow is going to fall in that time period? If that is the case, then that map isn't including what we receive Thurday night before it hits midnight Friday. We'll probably have approximately 6 hours of snowfall Thursday night before midnight Friday comes. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pa polar bear Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Now, I have a question about those HPC Prob. Maps. It says on that map, valid 00z Fri thru 00z Sat. Does that mean it is showing the percentages of how much snow is going to fall in that time period? If that is the case, then that map isn't including what we receive Thurday night before it hits midnight Friday. We'll probably have approximately 6 hours of snowfall Thursday night before midnight Friday comes. Just curious. Hello all. My first post on this board. 00z is 7:00 pm Eastern Standard Time. The time period mentioned by the HPC is 7:00 pm Thursday thru 7:00 pm Friday Eastern Standard Time.. Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Now, I have a question about those HPC Prob. Maps. It says on that map, valid 00z Fri thru 00z Sat. Does that mean it is showing the percentages of how much snow is going to fall in that time period? If that is the case, then that map isn't including what we receive Thurday night before it hits midnight Friday. We'll probably have approximately 6 hours of snowfall Thursday night before midnight Friday comes. Just curious. Black, I posted those maps for the LES Snow that we are forecasted to get after the system. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM still giving KPIT near 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looking at the radar , we will have some snow way before 5:00pm. it's already creeping into Columbus, Oh. I think earlier this afternoon. We may have an early release day for our schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 No early release... This will get cranking around 2-3.... Not much before so no time for it to cause problems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 No early release... This will get cranking around 2-3.... Not much before so no time for it to cause problems... In Peters they told my Son who is in 4th grade , that today AM they would make that determinaton. I mean most parents can just drop what they are doing to pick up their kid 1-2 hours early right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Be Gentle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 In Peters they told my Son who is in 4th grade , that today AM they would make that determinaton. I mean most parents can just drop what they are doing to pick up their kid 1-2 hours early right? This area gets so crazy.. By looks of this, the heaviest snows will start well after sunset. I think will the possibility of closings tomorrow for alot of areas, they should be able to hammer it out today. By 5PM, Areas on the extreme Western side of PA should only have a dusting, Most areas won't see snow until like 3-4 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As caution for LES forecasts... http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Be Gentle.. Well I had a conference call this AM, we have a client in Tulsa at the tail end of this and they were told 1-3" and they are at 4" with a few more hours left to go. We read models and God laughs. I know you are sticking to your guns here but 2-4" is kinda low. I would use 4" as a baseline not a max. But we will see by this time tommorrow who guessed right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well I had a conference call this AM, we have a client in Tulsa at the tail end of this and they were told 1-3" and they are at 4" with a few more hours left to go. We read models and God laughs. I know you are sticking to your guns here but 2-4" is kinda low. I would use 4" as a baseline not a max. But we will see by this time tommorrow who guessed right. We can't use Tulsa weather for what will happen here. Tulsa is south of KPIT and has been in a WSW throughout.. ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THISEVENING... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT... FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... * IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS... MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG AND NOWATA. IN ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...MADISON...BENTON AND CARROLL. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. * 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE COMMON IN THE WARNED AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Be Gentle.. Well I would very much like that being in the 4-8 I must say, I truly enjoy reading everyone trying to dissect maps etc. I wish I could sit and learn how to do this and get in on the discussion/debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We can't use Tulsa weather for what will happen here. Tulsa is south of KPIT and has been in a WSW throughout.. The snowfall criteria for a WSWarning is lower in Tulsa. Actually even as close as the Charleston WV CWA, the criteria for a WSWarning is lower than the PIT CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We can't use Tulsa weather for what will happen here. Tulsa is south of KPIT and has been in a WSW throughout.. MIssed point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 4-8+ (8+ areas in the ridges) inch snowfall for us is a good bet right, well did you see the snow totals in Illinois and Missouri of 7-10 inches of snow from a 12 hour storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Dude, I made a map for fun.. geez I will never do that again. BTW, The local news IS always right? Like I said, I used the model soundings when I did my map. http://www.meteor.ia...data/index.html It's just common knowledge you post a snowfall map you should expect the abuse. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 4-8+ (8+ areas in the ridges) inch snowfall for us is a good bet right, well did you see the snow totals in Illinois and Missouri of 7-10 inches of snow from a 12 hour storm I have no problem with you putting your guesses for storms but here is what I think is wrong with them. You have too big of a spread. I have seen 12-18 back around Christmas. 6-12 recently. And this one of 4-8. I have not seen a model or discussion of 8 inches for Pittsburgh area. Why have it? That is why you see the NWS and local mets with 3-5 or 3-6 in some cases. Average people out there will always take the higher number and run with it. Example: If you say 6-12, everyone goes around saying we are getting a foot. Then when you get 6 inches they think you overreacted. If you do this too many times than people won't believe you and you here the stories of weathermen being wrong all the time. You do not want to underestimate the situation but you also do not want to scare people as well. I remember back around the Christmas storm when Philly and New York had blizzard watches. You said you thought Pittsburgh was going to get 12-18 inches and should issue a blizzard watch. What did we get? Nothing I believe. Could you imagine if the NWS took your advice and issued a blizzard watch. The tv stations would be nuts and the supermarkets would go crazy. Then 2 days later we have nothing and the NWS is crucified for blowing it. I am not a met. I am interested in weather and always learning. Most times the mets know what they are doing and do a good job. Like I said before, I have no problem with people making predictions all over these forums but you need to tone it down. And don't forecast model to model. Those that have been on here as long as I have know that Western Pa. always has several 12-20 inch long range snowfalls on the models and we actually end up with 1 of these every 5 years or so. I do believe that we will still get a good 3-5 inches and things will get bad here quickly tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I have no problem with you putting your guesses for storms but here is what I think is wrong with them. You have too big of a spread. I have seen 12-18 back around Christmas. 6-12 recently. And this one of 4-8. I have not seen a model or discussion of 8 inches for Pittsburgh area. Why have it? That is why you see the NWS and local mets with 3-5 or 3-6 in some cases. Average people out there will always take the higher number and run with it. Example: If you say 6-12, everyone goes around saying we are getting a foot. Then when you get 6 inches they think you overreacted. If you do this too many times than people won't believe you and you here the stories of weathermen being wrong all the time. You do not want to underestimate the situation but you also do not want to scare people as well. I remember back around the Christmas storm when Philly and New York had blizzard watches. You said you thought Pittsburgh was going to get 12-18 inches and should issue a blizzard watch. What did we get? Nothing I believe. Could you imagine if the NWS took your advice and issued a blizzard watch. The tv stations would be nuts and the supermarkets would go crazy. Then 2 days later we have nothing and the NWS is crucified for blowing it. I am not a met. I am interested in weather and always learning. Most times the mets know what they are doing and do a good job. Like I said before, I have no problem with people making predictions all over these forums but you need to tone it down. And don't forecast model to model. Those that have been on here as long as I have know that Western Pa. always has several 12-20 inch long range snowfalls on the models and we actually end up with 1 of these every 5 years or so. I do believe that we will still get a good 3-5 inches and things will get bad here quickly tonight. Good Post North and you are 100% right.. Why I hate even doing maps. I tried to keep mine on a 2-3" spread. I could have easily had 2-8" for KPIT and 4-12" for KLBE. Either way I could go around saying I guessed right. Like I said, I am not a paid red tag, if someone does better then me and guesses better thats awesome, but nobody here should be gloating. We all had hits and misses. I have said 2-4" three days ago and I will stick with it, If I am wrong, then I am wrong. I could just continue to change my predictions with every post, but what fun would that be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm in Washington, PA and it's already starting to snow here. It's a very light snow, but nonetheless, it's just the start of what's to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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