north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS seems to agree, only 0.01 qpf and not even all of that is likely ice. Could cause slick spots on untreated surfaces though but may not even qualify for advisory criteria. GFS does still show some decent snow chance ~.25 over 24 hours from panel 54 on. Both GFS and Nam showing a swatch of snow on Wed am behind the front. We may be surprised by a nice 1-3 event. Then next storm Friday looks to bring some snow in. Something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MODELS NOW SUPPORT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. NO CHANGES TO LATER FORECAST PERIODS AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPER SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Both GFS and Nam showing a swatch of snow on Wed am behind the front. We may be surprised by a nice 1-3 event. Then next storm Friday looks to bring some snow in. Something to watch anyway. Meh, nothing all that exciting on the models right now, some clippy clips which we know have a tendency to disappoint. I am hoping February and early March ratchet up the excitement. Seems like every system is traversing up the EC , sitting over Cape Cod and then up to maritimes with little or no feedback to any low in Ohio Valley. As we approach the middle of meteorological Winter soon, this year has been a little on the disappointing side, well compared to last year which had 4-6 weeks of nice snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ytown1425 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I might be coming to pitt tonight. What time would the freezing rain start, if anything, tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I might be coming to pitt tonight. What time would the freezing rain start, if anything, tonight? If city even gets ice, it won't start til around dawn tomorrow.. Are we still going to get that warm trend come late month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Meh, nothing all that exciting on the models right now, some clippy clips which we know have a tendency to disappoint. I am hoping February and early March ratchet up the excitement. Seems like every system is traversing up the EC , sitting over Cape Cod and then up to maritimes with little or no feedback to any low in Ohio Valley. As we approach the middle of meteorological Winter soon, this year has been a little on the disappointing side, well compared to last year which had 4-6 weeks of nice snow events. I am not so sure. All models are now showing a swath of snow coming in Thursday night. Things can still change but I can see a possible 2-4 inch scenerio out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am not so sure. All models are now showing a swath of snow coming in Thursday night. Things can still change but I can see a possible 2-4 inch scenerio out of this. Now if this was to happen!!!! we would get a 1-2 feet of snow out of this with really high snow ratios with temps in the 10s and 20s Looks like a big system to watch My call would be a safe 4-8 inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Now if this was to happen!!!! we would get a 1-2 feet of snow out of this with really high snow ratios with temps in the 10s and 20s Looks like a big system to watch My call would be a safe 4-8 inch snowfall So your call for Thurs-Friday is 4-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Liking the 12z ggm at hours 75 and on. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So your call for Thurs-Friday is 4-8"? For now, i think a 4-8 inch snowfall is a safe call, most models now have us getting a 4+ inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Now if this was to happen!!!! we would get a 1-2 feet of snow out of this with really high snow ratios with temps in the 10s and 20s Looks like a big system to watch My call would be a safe 4-8 inch snowfall How is that a 12-24" storm? My safe bet would be a 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How is that a 12-24" storm? My safe bet would be a 1-3" ah still possible, , looks at the models and maybe you would see what's happening and also the the recent RUC short range forecast has us getting precip and staying colder some snow and freezing rain, some ice accumulations seem possible also looking at the HRRR Model most runs has us getting freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Now if this was to happen!!!! we would get a 1-2 feet of snow out of this with really high snow ratios with temps in the 10s and 20s Looks like a big system to watch My call would be a safe 4-8 inch snowfall While I am not discounting that solution verifying (especially considering some Mets in other sub forums are talking about a more phased wound up solution) its way to early to even give a first call, unless you meant based on only the GGEM run (with the assumption it verifies verbatim) Will be fun to see how things unfold over the next week or 2 as it looks cold with storm opportunities in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18Z nam has us clocked on hour 84 which would be Thursday night. qpf of .50-.75. In the ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 northpit, don't take this the wrong way, but you are a model hugger. I can do that too, but I know enough to know that a forecast requires more than what a model says. And who relies on the HRRR more than 6 hrs out? It's not really a go-to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18Z nam has us clocked on hour 84 which would be Thursday night. qpf of .50-.75. In the ballgame. Wow! Had no idea we were even tracking a storm other than the small icy situation coming up. When did the models start showing this? I haven't been able to follow them lately, and which ones are showing it because i took a quick glance at the gfs earlier and didn't see anything that stood out but it was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow! Had no idea we were even tracking a storm other than the small icy situation coming up. When did the models start showing this? I haven't been able to follow them lately, and which ones are showing it because i took a quick glance at the gfs earlier and didn't see anything that stood out but it was quick. GFS has it, but it is more of a light clipper front. European models and now Nam are catching on to this. Several days for movement but something to track and the cold air should be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow! Had no idea we were even tracking a storm other than the small icy situation coming up. When did the models start showing this? I haven't been able to follow them lately, and which ones are showing it because i took a quick glance at the gfs earlier and didn't see anything that stood out but it was quick. The 18Z NAM has the 60 hour precip total at hour 84 at .75-1.00; definitely something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18Z nam has us clocked on hour 84 which would be Thursday night. qpf of .50-.75. In the ballgame. Wow, that really does look good. Lets hope it keep getting wetter for us. Also, 18z NAM looks to really minimize the liquid precip as we look to stay a bit colder then get into the dryslot when it really warms up. Hopefully this should let us keep a couple inches of our snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 northpit, don't take this the wrong way, but you are a model hugger. I can do that too, but I know enough to know that a forecast requires more than what a model says. And who relies on the HRRR more than 6 hrs out? It's not really a go-to model. I don't think he is a model hugger.....he just looked at a model above that verbatim shows 2-4" for us and says it shows 2 feet. Random wishcasting is a more appropriate phrase perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Thurs/Fri storm has 4" to 8" written all over it. Not a huge storm as currently depicted but pretty good agreement on the NAM and GFS. NAM looks a little juicier, but that's nothing new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 well even the local METS are saying some significant snow thursday night into friday possible...so that makes me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Thurs/Fri storm has 4" to 8" written all over it. Not a huge storm as currently depicted but pretty good agreement on the NAM and GFS. NAM looks a little juicier, but that's nothing new Could be the best synoptic snowfall of the winter thus far if it stays the course. Could make for a short week for folks, MLK off and Friday off due to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Thurs/Fri storm has 4" to 8" written all over it. Not a huge storm as currently depicted but pretty good agreement on the NAM and GFS. NAM looks a little juicier, but that's nothing new Looks more like 2-4" with higher east and North, Kind of like what we had 5 days ago, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks more like 2-4" with higher east and North, Kind of like what we had 5 days ago, Nah, modeled much further west than the last storm. The amounts are changing but if you took the nam it'd be way over 2-4. I'm not saying its the 3 ft blizzard northpitt predicted but yeah it definitely bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nah, modeled much further west than the last storm. The amounts are changing but if you took the nam it'd be way over 2-4. I'm not saying its the 3 ft blizzard northpitt predicted but yeah it definitely bears watching. The 18Z NAM verbatim would give us about 6-10 inches. I'll be curious if the 00Z model suite continues to show the phasing happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks more like 2-4" with higher east and North, Kind of like what we had 5 days ago, Nam gives us close to .75 qpf..,that's not 2-4 but more like 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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lwg8tr0514 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nam gives us close to .75 qpf..,that's not 2-4 but more like 6-10. Even the GFS has us at .50-.75 QPF. I'll split the difference here and call for 4-6" through Friday afternoon, considering the NAM may back down on the juiciness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even the GFS has us at .50-.75 QPF. I'll split the difference here and call for 4-6" through Friday afternoon, considering the NAM may back down on the juiciness. Lol...I'm not even close to ready to make a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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