triadwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I thought this was neat, but when I was looking at the Long-Range forecasts in the Farmers Almanac for January, they had a Major East coast storm, for the dates of January 20-23. Since then they haven't changed it. Looks like the Farmers Almanac could hit this one on the head. I have also been looking at some less popular models for about the past 30 minutes. Looks like the Euro isn't the only one wanting to bring in a major east coast winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 it would be neat to say we lived in a period thats so rare. In my mind, I've always thought the ultimate pattern overall in the last 100 years was probably the Feb/Mar 1960 pattern for the Southest. Here's a photo I downloaded a few years back...it's from the Boone area in 1960... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The theory about the volcanoes was what I thought as many on this board did in the fall, that the volcanoes were the wild card. I know the NAO, AO, La Nina , all have a big part in the grand scheme for things but, you have to admit there is now proof that volcanoes have a bigger effect than most of us thought. Only thing is now someone who can possibly find the data, and find a correlation with volcanos and time of year, frequency, and location, and it's effects on our winters. Just my rambling thoughts. Now bring on the next storm,after all we need to make up for lost years to get back to a constant average! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The theory about the volcanoes was what I thought as many on this board did in the fall, that the volcanoes were the wild card. I know the NAO, AO, La Nina , all have a big part in the grand scheme for things but, you have to admit there is now proof that volcanoes have a bigger effect than most of us thought. Only thing is now someone who can possibly find the data, and find a correlation with volcanos and time of year, frequency, and location, and it's effects on our winters. Just my rambling thoughts. Now bring on the next storm,after all we need to make up for lost years to get back to a constant average! just emailed you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 We just moved to Knightdale and it was a mess for 2 weeks no power for 11 days like to went broke buying gas for the generator... I love my wood boiler... I have 5 or 6 chainsaws, pole saws, and a bucket truck so bring the ice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I have backtracked through the thread. The Euro looks wild. Looks like Part III in what has already been an amazing winter is about a week away. KTRI is around 13.1 inches of snow for the year. What's crazy is it has been w/ mostly small events. We only need two more inches to go normal - I think. W/ the pattern on the Euro, this could be the second straight winter that we go normal for snow. Well, it has geen a busy night. Been installing a new wireless router. Done. Since we are talking b-days. I was born in '70. How do you all think the MJO will play into the upcoming pattern? That seems to have been missing during the first few events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Here's a photo I downloaded a few years back...it's from the Boone area in 1960... its bad when you have to use shovels to dig your way to find your mailbox. We had 30 something inches in just Feb-March that year , I can only imagine what Boone got those 4 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the 00z GFS has maybe a 1 to 2 inch snowfall Monday in AVL to Boone but otherwise a cold rain for most. It also has no southwest low late next week, but does have -18 air into NC which would be our coldest yet. Later in the run it has another Winter type storm, so obviously the Winter pattern is here , or coming, irregardless of it not matching Euro at this time. We'll see if the Euro has the SW system this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the 00z GFS has maybe a 1 to 2 inch snowfall Monday in AVL to Boone but otherwise a cold rain for most. It also has no southwest low late next week, but does have -18 air into NC which would be our coldest yet. Later in the run it has another Winter type storm, so obviously the Winter pattern is here , or coming, irregardless of it not matching Euro at this time. We'll see if the Euro has the SW system this run. Beat me to it haha but yeah. I for one know that it will start becoming more interesting if the Euro shows a similar solution in regard with our shortwave for this run and the next 12z. Hopefully it doesn't keep showing ice as the possible event, and I'm aware that no one should focus on specifics at this point. Just keeping my eye out is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GGEM looks very interesting @ 144. Moisture gathering rapidly over the southeast. Not sure on temps. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Beat me to it haha but yeah. I for one know that it will start becoming more interesting if the Euro shows a similar solution in regard with our shortwave for this run and the next 12z. Hopefully it doesn't keep showing ice as the possible event, and I'm aware that no one should focus on specifics at this point. Just keeping my eye out is all. I am sure many have already noticed this, but the Euro is doing a much better job at getting the pattern right this winter. It seems that at 4-7 days out, it has been amazingly close to verifying. I am not going to worry about the ice storm set-up just yet, but if it shows a similar solution in a few days, I will begin to prepare. This has been a wild ride so far and it is not over with by any means. The MLK event looks to be light rain for most, but I don't believe we have seen the final solution yet. I believe the Euro will be interesting tonight. One thing I have noticed in this winter, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I will certainly be interested in the Euro, because the GFS and GGEM are so vastly different than the 12Z run- the closed low the Euro developed in the SW is nowhere to be found on the other models- this will really be a test for the Euro since the it is really an outlier right now. Will it flip or stick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I will certainly be interested in the Euro, because the GFS and GGEM are so vastly different than the 12Z run- the closed low the Euro developed in the SW is nowhere to be found on the other models- this will really be a test for the Euro since the it is really an outlier right now. Will it flip or stick? You got the PBP? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 You got the PBP? TW Sorry, PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Sorry, PBP? Play-By-Play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Play-By-Play On the Euro of course. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GGEM looks very interesting @ 144. Moisture gathering rapidly over the southeast. Not sure on temps. TW Looks a little too warm. But 1035mb high to the north with LP forming in the gulf. Hmmmmm.... http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 On the Euro of course. TW Kinda busy, but I will give a few updates..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Kinda busy, but I will give a few updates..... Thanks. Mainly interested in the 6-10 range (wonder why?). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The Euro takes the east coast storm and make it strong in eastern Maine, while dropping the next s/w not so far west, through the central Plains at 120. This run is suspect early on with its sudden eastern NC deepening , looks like convective bulleseye off ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The Euro blinked- complete reversal. Looks like the GFS and GGEM. No SW closed low- just a broad trough in the central 138 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 144 1008 low se ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 at 144, theres a sig. storm in the Southeast but rain. Except maybe NW NC and points west where its ending as snow. The trough is def. further east and not as cold air damming ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hr 144 1008 low se ga. More like central GA- rain for everyone except maybe far northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 On Day 7, that low has shot up the East Coast to become the next Nor'easter while the 1031mb high settles into the Midwest some more and brings in much colder air into the Southeast. Looks like 850s range from -14 to -16 for WNC, N GA and AL, and even colder for central TN around -22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Big Nor'easter Friday- upslope snow in the mtns of NC and pretty cold air coming in. This may all be moot as when a model, even the Euro, does this big of a change, it cannot be trusted. This fast zonal flow is playing havoc with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Does this show anything for the Valley,sorry about the MBY question? Never mind,i see it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalejr88 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I am glad we are back up and running i was getting bored. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 And we are back! Was getting worried for a second that it was just my computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.