Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All models have something in the day 8-10 range that look like they will be close enough to screw with us but not really give us any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Models have something yea.. however there been no consistency on the push of cold air lately on models beyond day 8. I've seen cutters by some models... out to sea by others... and some with a frontal passage with a low developing on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Models have something yea.. however there been no consistency on the push of cold air lately on models beyond day 8. I've seen cutters by some models... out to sea by others... and some with a frontal passage with a low developing on it. ive seen everything but an actual snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ive seen everything but an actual snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic Why torture yourself with this stuff? Winter 2010-2011 is just not our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why torture yourself with this stuff? Winter 2010-2011 is just not our winter. Ji will never stop... which is why he needs to be 5-posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why torture yourself with this stuff? Winter 2010-2011 is just not our winter. Until it gets warm..we keep tracking. Cold air is needed for snow right Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hang in there. Historically February is the snowiest month for the MA and we have gotten some great March storms in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The day 11 analogs show some promise, for the first time this season. The analog dates are listed in order below and the snowfalls are shown as relative to the analog date (D0= analog date, D+4= four days after the analog date, D-3= three days prior to the analog date). A couple of the dates are essentially duplicates; those are shown as color coded pairs. 01/22/84 D-4 4.6" 02/04/74 D+4 6.1" 02/05/71 D0 .2" 01/14/72 01/14/67 D+5 1.4" 01/24/74 D+14 6.1" 01/27/84 D-9 4.6" 01/08/94 D0 .3", D+9 1.2", D-5 1.4" 01/29/82 D-8 6.2" 02/07/67 D0 11.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Until it gets warm..we keep tracking. Cold air is needed for snow right Ian? Nope, we just need the perfect setup. The storm will create its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The day 11 analogs show some promise, for the first time this season. The analog dates are listed in order below and the snowfalls are shown as relative to the analog date (D0= analog date, D+4= four days after the analog date, D-3= three days prior to the analog date). A couple of the dates are essentially duplicates; those are shown as color coded pairs. 01/22/84 D-4 4.6" 02/04/74 D+4 6.1" 02/05/71 D0 .2" 01/14/72 01/14/67 D+5 1.4" 01/24/74 D+14 6.1" 01/27/84 D-9 4.6" 01/08/94 D0 .3", D+9 1.2", D-5 1.4" 01/29/82 D-8 6.2" 02/07/67 D0 11.8" This method seemed to work well for Wes with tomorrows storm from about 6-7 days out. Not sure how effective it might be over the 11 day period, but certainly something to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i think im in agreement with psuhoffman.. i was thinking about last yr a bit myself. nina's favor some late season action and then there is the general idea that things lift north as the season begins to wind down. that might be our best shot at a secs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS at 162 looks interesting...can cold front make it through in time? probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 here is the hole again. It cant even rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, the MJO should be going into Phase 8 around that time, which means tropical convection near the dateline, and the potential for a +PNA ridge to pop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the gfs looks hot.. too bad truncation is next http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_180m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i want a rain changing to blizzard followed by arctic air storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 the gfs looks hot.. too bad truncation is next http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_180m.gif push through baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 i want a rain changing to blizzard followed by arctic air storm rain changing to ice first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not really concerned about the surface at this point, but you have to love the look of a trough like that at 500h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 blizzard if you take out the truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not really concerned about the surface at this point, but you have to love the look of a trough like that at 500h. It is a pretty map for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 this has potential................. to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 this has potential................. to screw us first wishcast: 5-10 edit: let's be realistic... 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 would of been interesting to see what it would of showed if it didnt truncate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 this has quadruple phaser written all over it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 this has potential................. to screw us still a giant snow hole pretty close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 if this was d2 phineas would be hoping to hear wes say funny things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Somehow this will take the edge off tomorrows screw job. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Rain snow line is awfully close, but better than its looked the passed few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 still a giant snow hole pretty close by In Sioux Falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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