Confuzzled Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Post them here. Mine is really only for CT because I just focus IMBY more or less and I post it for friends and family on facebook You can extrapolate it if you want I suppose.... South Eastern NE gets hit hardest..... Barring naything crazy with the rest of the 00z models that is it....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Post them here. Mine is really only for CT because I just focus IMBY more or less and I post it for friends and family on facebook You can extrapolate it if you want I suppose.... South Eastern NE gets hit hardest..... Barring naything crazy with the rest of the 00z models that is it....... not so sure I agree.. your 3-6 area for me would be a 6-12 with areas east of 91 (in ct staying in the theme of your map) being 8-16" with another 6-12 area near groton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 rough, preliminary thinking for now...will post more detailed information about those highest amounts later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Kevin BETTER say I'm not too low Discussion: Well folks the weather pattern continues to be very active and after a weekend which featured two snowfall events, which turned out to be pretty significant for some, we look right ahead to our next threat, which will be tomorrow night through much of the afternoon on Wednesday, and this storm looks like it will be a massive hit. There has been some excellent model agreement going on over the past few days in regards to this storm, all models show a hit and show a pretty big hit, some even show an absolute pounding. At this stage I think it's pretty much fair to say that we are going to get a storm and we are going to get a big one, in fact this storm has potential to produce much higher widespread snowfall totals than the blizzard did just a day after Christmas. A strong negatively tilted trough will be swinging through the Northeast over the next couple of days with lots of energy, given the upper-level pattern we will see favorable development for rapid cyclogenesis occur right along the coast just south of our region, as this system moves northward it will continue to rapidly strengthen and draw in a great deal of moisture. Given how the storm track will be to the south and east out our region this should be an all snow event, however, it's still possible this storm tracks far enough to the west to where parts of eastern MA (mainly the Cape area) experience a period of mixing. This will have to be watched as we get closer to the event. With such rapid deepening and a negatively tilted trough there will be an incredible amount of lift over the region, this coupled with excellent moisture convergence and surface convergence will lead to a period of extremely heavy snowfall, given how strong the lift is coupled with great moisture advection and warm air advection into the storm the potential does exist for thundersnow as well, if this occurs we will see further enhancement of the snowfall rates. It's possible some of the snowfall rates in the heaviest banding could exceed 3-5''/HR rates. This would dump a great deal of snow in a small time frame as well as causing whiteout conditions at times. This system should also feature some strong winds, although nothing like we saw in the blizzard, however, with the potential for strong winds and heavy snowfall some locations may experience blizzard conditions at times. Forecast: I pretty much think the hardest hit areas will be from most of CT out through all of RI and up through NE MA...the track of the system is VERY favorable for these areas to get pounded and pounded hard. Somewhere in this area is where we are likely to see a strong band setup, this band will lead to produce the highest snowfall totals and whoever gets under this banding could potentially see close to 24'' of snow...possibly a few inches more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Kevin BETTER say I'm not too low Discussion: Well folks the weather pattern continues to be very active and after a weekend which featured two snowfall events, which turned out to be pretty significant for some, we look right ahead to our next threat, which will be tomorrow night through much of the afternoon on Wednesday, and this storm looks like it will be a massive hit. There has been some excellent model agreement going on over the past few days in regards to this storm, all models show a hit and show a pretty big hit, some even show an absolute pounding. At this stage I think it's pretty much fair to say that we are going to get a storm and we are going to get a big one, in fact this storm has potential to produce much higher widespread snowfall totals than the blizzard did just a day after Christmas. A strong negatively tilted trough will be swinging through the Northeast over the next couple of days with lots of energy, given the upper-level pattern we will see favorable development for rapid cyclogenesis occur right along the coast just south of our region, as this system moves northward it will continue to rapidly strengthen and draw in a great deal of moisture. Given how the storm track will be to the south and east out our region this should be an all snow event, however, it's still possible this storm tracks far enough to the west to where parts of eastern MA (mainly the Cape area) experience a period of mixing. This will have to be watched as we get closer to the event. With such rapid deepening and a negatively tilted trough there will be an incredible amount of lift over the region, this coupled with excellent moisture convergence and surface convergence will lead to a period of extremely heavy snowfall, given how strong the lift is coupled with great moisture advection and warm air advection into the storm the potential does exist for thundersnow as well, if this occurs we will see further enhancement of the snowfall rates. It's possible some of the snowfall rates in the heaviest banding could exceed 3-5''/HR rates. This would dump a great deal of snow in a small time frame as well as causing whiteout conditions at times. This system should also feature some strong winds, although nothing like we saw in the blizzard, however, with the potential for strong winds and heavy snowfall some locations may experience blizzard conditions at times. Forecast: I pretty much think the hardest hit areas will be from most of CT out through all of RI and up through NE MA...the track of the system is VERY favorable for these areas to get pounded and pounded hard. Somewhere in this area is where we are likely to see a strong band setup, this band will lead to produce the highest snowfall totals and whoever gets under this banding could potentially see close to 24'' of snow...possibly a few inches more. Now that's how you grab a handful of your friends balls and slam them into the wall. Nice Job!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Now that's how you grab a handful of your friends balls and slam them into the wall. Nice Job!! Thanks! And I must say, you were 100% correct with my last two maps regarding the Friday night/Saturday event...I was way too low. Hats off to you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 great job wiz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 great job wiz! Thanks It's time for us to cash in and cash in BIG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Paul: Can you move the little red line over about 3-4 miles in Southern Litchfield? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Paul: Can you move the little red line over about 3-4 miles in Southern Litchfield? Thanks! I'll cook something up for you with tonight's update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 no need to be afraid of the conn shore on this one its going all the way down there to this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 . . . Call it the truth. All kinds of science that you folks just don't know about, or even understand used to come up with this beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Paul: Can you move the little red line over about 3-4 miles in Southern Litchfield? Thanks! You're FINE for this one... a tad too far west for the heaviest QPF, but orographic enhancement and good ratios will save the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, you just earned the title of King Weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willv28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 . . . Call it the truth. All kinds of science that you folks just don't know about, or even understand used to come up with this beauty. Now that's my kind of map. At least I'm in the 24"+ though our totals at this side of the hill are usually knocked down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 not so sure I agree.. your 3-6 area for me would be a 6-12 with areas east of 91 (in ct staying in the theme of your map) being 8-16" with another 6-12 area near groton Well I made that in the middle of the 12z suite. I would raise pretty much everything on it. It seems all the forecasts have trended towards DT's first guess and consecutive calls a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 . . . Call it the truth. All kinds of science that you folks just don't know about, or even understand used to come up with this beauty. Wow - that's some spectacular work? Who knew Brooklyn was the snow capital. You forgot to expand that a bit to include me and GINX. That brings back memories of folks who used to make similarly childish looking maps on Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just saw the new rgem, all that yellow was in the water the last run..... go big or go home on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are you guys seeing mixing or just bad ratios near Groton? I really can't find anything in the sref, NAM of GFS profiles to find a reason to reduce pcp that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow - that's some spectacular work? Who knew Brooklyn was the snow capital. You forgot to expand that a bit to include me and GINX. That brings back memories of folks who used to make similarly childish looking maps on Eastern. I burned out a belt in my snowblower, so a good dump is almost guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That brings back memories of folks who used to make similarly childish looking maps on Eastern. lol - The difference is those people had the illusion that they knew what they were doing, but with me, it's obvioulsy all in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My first call. Believe a secondary max in snow falls over the hills of W Ct. and W Ma.... could be more snow in ENE than depicted but I'd want to be just W. of Boston to jackpot this one. Also, NE and SW fringes may be off, first time making such a large map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol - The difference is those people had the illusion that they knew what they were doing, but with me, it's obvioulsy all in jest. Right- because clearly the jackpot will be Woodstock, not Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My first call. Believe a secondary max in snow falls over the hills of W Ct. and W Ma.... could be more snow in ENE than depicted but I'd want to be just W. of Boston to jackpot this one. Also, NE and SW fringes may be off, first time making such a large map. I'm going to crack open a beer in homage to Ullr and hope that you are correct sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I like this for now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Per the new 00z Nam with implied Bufkit omega/dendritic snow growth ratios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I like this for now: I think that is about where I am at....I just want to see what the gfs (and the rgem more so) does tonight before issuing a final snow map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1st guess...props to boston winter 08 for the template! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 it is a very nice template! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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