foggy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 E030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 New NAM is in and, as of 12h, it has trended east with the surface low as compared to the 6z run. Still fairly similar at 500 mb. The low is still in the same area (maybe 10 miles east), but the gradient has tightened up. Not good news N&W, but it is what it is. Only expecting 4-6" in the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The low is still in the same area (maybe 10 miles east), but the gradient has tightened up. Not good news N&W, but it is what it is. Only expecting 4-6" in the Lehigh Valley. 4 - 6" is being generous. I honestly do not see more than 2 - 4". 2" on the western fringes where as 3 - 4" closer to the Delaware River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The low is still in the same area (maybe 10 miles east), but the gradient has tightened up. Not good news N&W, but it is what it is. Only expecting 4-6" in the Lehigh Valley. many board members feel you should not even look at the nam of GFS in this time period. Now casting time. I personally don't believe this but many folks hammer the awsome short range models. Overall poor run for anyone west of the Del river. Almost comical how the NAM switches precip totals down to the GFS levels in the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Saw this in post #612, can someone fill me in on what this is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 many board members feel you should not even look at the nam of GFS in this time period. Now casting time. I personally don't believe this but many folks hammer the awsome short range models. Overall poor run for anyone west of the Del river. Almost comical how the NAM switches precip totals down to the GFS levels in the last run This season they seem to have been pulling back east more with the systems within 12 - 24 hours of the ETA. By tonight it's all eyes to the radar and seeing what kind of banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like 2-4" for eastern PA northwest of I-78 and 3-6" southeast of I-78. All the models have been consistent in throwing a little extra precip. back into the Delaware Valley as the storm gets it act together between 00z-06z Wednesday. Then it ends quickly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hope you are right, I'll play the conservative role and hope to be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's really at nowcasting time and glance at the short range models (WRF, MM5, RUC). Models have for the past year or so, been tucking the storms in closer until about 12-24 hours before the event, then sliding them back to the east. West of I-476, don't except more then 4" and that's only because the ULL might save you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Saw this in post #612, can someone fill me in on what this is... take a look at the post again, and you will see the 700mb vv's (vertical velocities) depicted in our general neck of the woods (not shown in your snippet), indicating significant lift in the atmosphere underneath which there would be enhanced snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is the precip heading into SE PA right now? Will this event start now and continue very slowly through day? If flurries start, people will freak out(especially schools) since all forecasts have it starting late pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is the precip heading into SE PA right now? Will this event start now and continue very slowly through day? If flurries start, people will freak out(especially schools) since all forecasts have it starting late pm... It's more than likely Virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's more than likely Virga. i dunno, baltimore reported snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i'm guessing this is all V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder if the coastal low is going to have a hard time getting juiced up and leave everyone south of NYC in the < 3" range. The radar at this point does not look organized at all along the south coass. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nobody is reporting anything northeast of Louisa, VA. It's virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i dunno, baltimore reported snow? I dunno, did they? If so then this thing looks to be moving in a tad faster than originally forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 i dunno, baltimore reported snow? KBWI 111354Z 03004KT 10SM SCT045 BKN080 OVC100 M02/M09 A3026 RMK AO2 SNB13E32 SLP247 VCSH N P0000 T10171089 KBWI 111332Z VRB03KT 9SM SCT045 BKN080 OVC100 M02/M08 A3025 RMK AO2 SNB13E32 P0000 KBWI 111313Z 00000KT 10SM -SN SCT045 BKN080 OVC100 M02/M09 A3024 RMK AO2 SNB13 P0000 KBWI 111254Z 00000KT 10SM SCT085 BKN100 OVC140 M02/M09 A3024 RMK AO2 SLP241 T10221089 KBWI 111154Z 00000KT 10SM OVC085 M02/M09 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP238 T10221089 11022 21056 58010 KBWI 111054Z 00000KT 10SM FEW070 OVC090 M03/M08 A3025 RMK AO2 SLP245 T10281083 KBWI 110954Z 00000KT 10SM FEW070 BKN110 OVC150 M03/M08 A3025 RMK AO2 SLP246 T10331083 KBWI 110854Z 00000KT 10SM BKN110 OVC200 M03/M09 A3026 RMK AO2 SLP248 T10331089 53002 One 19 min report. Nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder if the coastal low is going to have a hard time getting juiced up and leave everyone south of NYC in the < 3" range. The radar at this point does not look organized at all along the south coass. D I think you are looking at 2-4 west of philly but those numbers may have to come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The energy hasn't even transferred yet. Relax guys, give this thing a little time to build up. Most of what you are seeing is Virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbama99 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry bout the troll, but flurries were reported from Annapolis to Perry Hall. No coatings yet, good luck up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The models are handling the midwestern closed low quite well and the surface low passed just to east of buoy 41013, so its tucked in along the western periphery of solutions, don't know what would amount to as a bust in your eyes, but I feel pretty confident about us reaching warning criteria in most of our counties. At least the 6z NAM can be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder if the coastal low is going to have a hard time getting juiced up and leave everyone south of NYC in the < 3" range. The radar at this point does not look organized at all along the south coass. D I think you are looking at 2-4 west of philly but those numbers may have to come down. It's the northern stream feature digging that enhances the coastal. It's what a Miller B does. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Carmen You should get your wish with the heavy snow staying south and east of my location...enjoy! Paul Lets keep that banding just south east of your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's the northern stream feature digging that enhances the coastal. It's what a Miller B does. Relax. Exactly. Once the hand-off to the coastal takes place, rapid intensification and a dramtic increase in the precipitation shield should take place. Before then, only those with a strong stomach should monitor the radar, as the images will be less than impressive for some time to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly. Once the hand-off to the coastal takes place, rapid intensification and a dramtic increase in the precipitation shield should take place. Before then, only those with a strong stomach should monitor the radar, as the images will be less than impressive for some time to come. Congrats with the storm don.. posts pic's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly. Once the hand-off to the coastal takes place, rapid intensification and a dramtic increase in the precipitation shield should take place. Before then, only those with a strong stomach should monitor the radar, as the images will be less than impressive for some time to come. Best example of this I ever saw was 12/30/2000. Absolutely nothing on the radar at midnight, a lone shower or two over the ocean east of the Delmarva at 1AM, turning into a plume of showers shortly thereafter, and by sunrise the entire region is getting snow at 2 - 3"/hour. Maybe a little slower rate down toward Philly, but basically the storm seemed to materialize out of thin air if only viewing the radar. EDIT: I posted this before I saw Tiburon's analog post. Not sure how I skipped over it, but somehow missed it before. Hey Tiburon, my brother in law and family lived in your namesake town a few years ago before moving back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For those of you out on the ledge about the storm "going east!" I'd suggest reading Rainshadow's (Tony from NWS-Mt. Holly) recent post, above, as well as their 7:55 am update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --THROUGH THE 12Z OBS, A EURO AND CAN GGEM COMBO IS WORKING THE BEST WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW, TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT 500MB ITS ABOUT THE SAME, NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BUT THE FORMER IS CLOSEST. ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MIDWESTERN CLOSED LOW EQUALLY AND QUITE WELL. LAST WALLOPS IS ALREADY UP TO +1C AT 850MB, ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD WITH THEIR FCST 850MB TEMPS, WITH THE GFS THE CLOSEST. THIS ADDS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE NON SNOW PTYPE ISSUES ALONG OUR COAST. NO CHANGES FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE FIRST 24HRS IN ON BOTH MODELS FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE. IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WARM LAYER SEEN ON THE 0000 UTC KGSO AND KMHX SOUNDINGS HAS SLIPPED NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERNMOST DELMARVA PENINSULA. BASED ON THIS...THE POTENTIAL SLEET WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS THE PRECIPITATION GETS STARTED. PUTTING THE REMAINING PIECES OF THE PUZZLE TOGETHER THIS MORNING... THE REMAINDER OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY CURRENTLY IN THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING...AS WILL NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND COASTAL OCEAN COUNTY NEW JERSEY. THE EASTERN MARYLAND COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN THE WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. EASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE...AS WELL AS COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES WILL BE SWITCHED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...AS WILL THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAK IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN JET STREAK LOCATED OVER MISSOURI. ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A SURFACE LOW IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO THE THE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT GETS TO OUR LATITUDE AND FURTHER NORTHEAST. FOR THE MOST PART...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE PHASING OF THE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL OCCUR JUST AS IT REACHES OUR LATITUDE. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IS A TRANSITION ZONE...AS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MOISTURE...AND NORTHEAST AREAS JUST GETTING INTO THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACES SHOULD SLOW THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING JUST EXITING...SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREAS (PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST) MAY EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLY. AFTER THIS...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOISTENING THE COLUMN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET INTO DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING A KPHL-KACY LINE BY ABOUT 600 PM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER IT STARTS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND AND PORTIONS OF DELAWARE BEFORE DARK. THE AIRMASS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS. THE EXCEPTION HERE IS ALONG THE COAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY GETS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ONSHORE. WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 40...AND AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S...HIGHS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM. AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS SNOW...BUT ONCE THIS IS USED UP...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BACK ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO RAIN.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on One more point: I would imagine that if mixing/rain are issues along the immediate Jersey Shore, then the same may be true for at least the eastern parts of LI. This is not a forecast, just an observation that things often work out that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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