Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Wow Ian, I just said exactly what you said over at 40S a few minutes ago-even crediting you with a comment about the models. yeah lol.. i saw. i guess we just have too much time on our hands these days? if nothing else we can recall that the blizzard was an overruning 2' of snow around this range.. which became a "gauranteed" smaller overruning event, then, well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 just to clarify, that is all from the storm at 168+ hrs Then dgex said no to the dec 26 event every day. It did nail the Feb 5 storm one week in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the pattern is actually developing into a pretty good one. Tons of blocking and cold, its not perfect and the Nina is making it difficult to model but unless we are monumentally unlucky we will probably do alright and one of these storms will eventually give us snow. I agree worrying about the specifics at time ranges like this is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Slower evolution the better. We need some crushing help from a 1060MB HP in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I looked for a 12Z model thread and didn't see it. If this has been posted, then sorry for the double post. If not, then in my daily quest to be harbinger of hope: A significant number of the ECE members are west of the OP from forecast hour 174 through 198. From looking at the spaghetti I'd say about 15 are much closer to the coast. Of course there are 50 members so 15 doesn't actually do much to the ECE mean. Now I should add that about five of those "more westerly" solutions are the result of a primary low tracking up into the OV region and an eventual secondary forming somewhere north of the DE/VA border. Not exactly idea for us, but if we had enough cold air wedged in then we could see several hours of moderate snow due to WAA. That's not, however, the most reliable of expectations when one sees an OV track. EDIT: I see that 1/4 of the 18Z GEFS show a similar disaster as that which would be implied by the handful of ECE members that go into the OV. The GFS OP is sort'a a "best case" version of those as it takes the primary along the eastern edge of the "western most" cluster and therefore begins the transfer of energy when the primary gets to eastern KY. This results in a secondary forming in SE NC. Honestly not all that common a scenario, but I'll stop there since it'll undermine the whole "hope" part of my agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ugh...the trend among the rest of the global guidance isn't all encouraging. Oh well, Wisconsin could use some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z GFS Vs 12Z GGEM. Major differences with the S/W coming out of Mexico. This pulls a lot more warm air up with it on the GGEM probably the main issue! Differences with the S/W in the northeast as well, there is a lingering vortex over the lakes on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ugh...the trend among the rest of the global guidance isn't all encouraging. Oh well, Wisconsin could use some snow... You went from hopeful to dismal in a matter of 2 paragraphs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ugh...the trend among the rest of the global guidance isn't all encouraging. Oh well, Wisconsin could use some snow... im definitely a seasonal trend guy, so i think what mitch and some others say about a bigger worry being missed to the south and east carries some weight. we all know we sorta need a 'fluke' -- though arent they all really? -- but after yrs of model watching, in this case i fear we already saw our best runs and this ends up going west. then again it's so far out there i have no real clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Individual ensemble members for the past few days have shown a cutter or Apps runner, now there are just more. And by more, like 3 or 4 more members. Also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z gfs did look a bit better at 500 but the m/u lvls are troubling lately.. even with an OK surface solution. i've seen multiple instances like this around this range where the coastal forms in time, but just in time, for a decent solution. however as we moved in closer the interior low eventually became more dominant. it's really much too early to say either way but it should be in the back of the mind for sure even if it doesnt seem to match what we've seen lately. the euro solution is perhaps perplexing but the way it comes together is weird so in some ways, and especially after it's recent performance, i'd be willing to toss the euro for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z gfs did look a bit better at 500 but the m/u lvls are troubling lately.. even with an OK surface solution. i've seen multiple instances like this around this range where the coastal forms in time, but just in time, for a decent solution. however as we moved in closer the interior low eventually became more dominant. it's really much too early to say either way but it should be in the back of the mind for sure even if it doesnt seem to match what we've seen lately. the euro solution is perhaps perplexing but the way it comes together is weird so in some ways, and especially after it's recent performance, i'd be willing to toss the euro for now. The other factor, and you have touched on it, that is playing in here is the tendency for robust blocking. One thing we have seen since this time last year and earlier is the tendency for the models to sometimes misread the blocking. There is some precedence for the GFS not really seeing it. Cutters have not been very prevalent, frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm also going to toss all of the Ensemble members with an OV primary. When in doubt throw them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The other factor, and you have touched on it, that is playing in here is the tendency for robust blocking. One thing we have seen since this time last year and earlier is the tendency for the models to sometimes misread the blocking. There is some precedence for the GFS not really seeing it. Cutters have not been very prevalent, frankly. im not sure i know enough about blocking to get far into it but it's probably among the main reasons this is even 'in play' right now. how much it's helped us thus far is questionable i guess.. seems the main factor is helping keep cold around in between storm threats. there have been a handful of interior (mid west) events i think, though some of those were clippers that also impacted the east eventually. for sure there were a few earlier in the cold season even with blocking around. most yrs seem to have a handful of each. this might be more than a cutter (at least an eastern lakes one) depending on how it shifts going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 if you can't trust the operational GFS, which is supposed to be the superior product, why would we want to put any faith in the ensembles at a time frame that make JI look like Nostradamus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 im not sure i know enough about blocking to get far into it but it's probably among the main reasons this is even 'in play' right now. how much it's helped us thus far is questionable i guess.. seems the main factor is helping keep cold around in between storm threats. there have been a handful of interior (mid west) events i think, though some of those were clippers that also impacted the east eventually. for sure there were a few earlier in the cold season even with blocking around. most yrs seem to have a handful of each. this might be more than a cutter (at least an eastern lakes one) depending on how it shifts going forward. When was the last time we had a legit interior runner? I realize they aren't impossible or anything, but I don't remember a deep-winter cutter from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 if you can't trust the operational GFS, which is supposed to be the superior product, why would we want to put any faith in the ensembles at a time frame that make JI look like Nostradamus? that so many of them are west is probably not totally insignificant. as the gfs plays out past like 138 there is plenty of opportunity for it to end up further northwest than it does. gfs sorta wants to try to get both surface reflections going fairly equally early in that frame, but i think the other levels would tend to want to develop the interior low better. that could still translate east i guess as it runs into the block but that's still likely going to put the 850 low etc to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heh, who needs model support when we got JB on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 30hr NAM like I've been repeating over and over...seasonal trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When was the last time we had a legit interior runner? I realize they aren't impossible or anything, but I don't remember a deep-winter cutter from last winter. i dunno. i mean there was a blizzard a few days ago in the northern plains.. one in minneapolis earlier in the season. one further east? maybe not many recently, though in the fall yes. storms that go west are often cold front passages for us so it's not terribly noteworthy locally. it's far enough you you could have a low pass over chicago or something at verification. too early to flush the keys to the bus tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i dunno. i mean there was a blizzard a few days ago in the northern plains.. one in minneapolis earlier in the season. one further east? maybe not many recently, though in the fall yes. storms that go west are often cold front passages for us so it's not terribly noteworthy locally. it's far enough you you could have a low pass over chicago or something at verification. too early to flush the keys to the bus tho.. I mean one that ran up to buckeye-land or up the Apps and rained hard on us. A storm that cuts up to Minnesota is a totally different beast, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So..what are we saying here....this thing is more likely to cut than ots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So..what are we saying here....this thing is more likely to cut than ots? more likely ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So..what are we saying here....this thing is more likely to cut than ots? I think it will be one of those "close" storms where the R/S line flirts with us and folks SE of DC see some rain. It seems like forever since we have had a storm where being NW of DC/BWI was a good thing. Every storm seems to pound Wes just as well if not better than spots to the NW. I like your area a lot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I mean one that ran up to buckeye-land or up the Apps and rained hard on us. A storm that cuts up to Minnesota is a totally different beast, IMO. no recollection at all on those scenarios. i dont think an apps runner is likely. to me the most likely options are a miller b of some sort that doesnt come together right for us or a larger initial storm that ends up well west of the apps, maybe someone to our north gets saved. different beasts in the end sure but this is a nina season with northern stream dominance. we don't often get a ton of love from that. the block is a factor but i'd be cautious of making it too big a factor, at least till it proves it can still be a friendly one like last yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You went from hopeful to dismal in a matter of 2 paragraphs I'm fickle. im definitely a seasonal trend guy, so i think what mitch and some others say about a bigger worry being missed to the south and east carries some weight. we all know we sorta need a 'fluke' -- though arent they all really? -- but after yrs of model watching, in this case i fear we already saw our best runs and this ends up going west. then again it's so far out there i have no real clue. The ninas I recall tend to oscillate between long stretches of warmth and brief but fairly intense cold outbreaks. The latter have tended to feature clippers that dive well south of us, and deepen too far OTS, and split flow "southern stream" systems that slide right off the coast somewhere between JAX and ILM. The rest of those nina winter's lows seem to track up along the west side of the Apps, the OV or the eastern plains states. This is just based on memory, though, not a careful study. Heights really seem to want to fall out west. Not a good sign. Especially since the cause of those eventual height falls is poorly sampled at this time (being even further back in the data poor PAC). Meanwhile our block, the Friday flurry fest, will be lifting unimpeded. While heights might stay "relatively low" in the east it's definitely a game of chicken. A high stakes one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 no recollection at all on those scenarios. i dont think an apps runner is likely. to me the most likely options are a miller b of some sort that doesnt come together right for us or a storm that ends up well west of the apps. different beasts in the end sure but this is a nina season with northern stream dominance. we don't often get a ton of love from that. the block is a factor but i'd be cautious of making it too big a factor, at least till it proves it can still be a friendly one like last yr. So Ian in your mind there is no positive scenario on the table right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think it will be one of those "close" storms where the R/S line flirts with us and folks SE of DC see some rain. It seems like forever since we have had a storm where being NW of DC/BWI was a good thing. Every storm seems to pound Wes just as well if not better than spots to the NW. I like your area a lot for this one. It's been forever. Dec 2009...Feb 5 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So Ian in your mind there is no positive scenario on the table right now? i guess it's option 3... climo is really important in this range 40/40/20 on west/miller b screwage/good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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