12z ECMWF shows wintry potential

[Edge Weather]

Yes, and it shows a raging blizzard for NC and SC with a 976 mb low near the NC shore at 210 hrs, and deepens it to a central pressure of 952 mbs. about 400 miles off the coast of NJ. Now, imagine if this really hugs the coast instead? The beaches would be destroyed, and we would have a storm with more problems than the last one.

[weathervswife]

6z GFS is starting to pick up on this storm now. It's a really weak wave, but it's showing up now in the same location.

[needbiggerboat]

if this continues to show up as a threat, i will abide by the following:

• Until 96 hours out, invest a max of 10 minutes of review time each day for the 0z and 12z global model runs, and a scan of the hpc diagnostics
• 96-48 hours out, allow 30 minutes per day to review the model runs and related discussion threads
• Inside 48 hours, butt in seat and eyes glued to screen. Showering and general hygiene will need to wait.

[HoCoSnowBo]

if this continues to show up as a threat, i will abide by the following:

• Until 96 hours out, invest a max of 10 minutes of review time each day for the 0z and 12z global model runs, and a scan of the hpc diagnostics
• 96-48 hours out, allow 30 minutes per day to review the model runs and related discussion threads
• Inside 48 hours, butt in seat and eyes glued to screen. Showering and general hygiene will need to wait.

I laughed out loud.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

if this continues to show up as a threat, i will abide by the following:

• Until 96 hours out, invest a max of 10 minutes of review time each day for the 0z and 12z global model runs, and a scan of the hpc diagnostics
• 96-48 hours out, allow 30 minutes per day to review the model runs and related discussion threads
• Inside 48 hours, butt in seat and eyes glued to screen. Showering and general hygiene will need to wait.

WOW, that is some kind of storm, correct me if i'm wrong, but didnt the ECM almost nail the last one in this timeframe, and showed it consistantly for at least 5 consecutive runs before changing up and coming right back to the same general idea?

[Rib]

Really surpised how there is no huge ridge in the medium range like happens in these kinds of winters. This winter keeps defying la-nina logic.

[Redmorninglight]

WOW, that is some kind of storm, correct me if i'm wrong, but didnt the ECM almost nail the last one in this timeframe, and showed it consistantly for at least 5 consecutive runs before changing up and coming right back to the same general idea?

I believe so. It showed an east coast storm for 5 straight runs in the medium range and then lost it The 0z Christmas morning run picked it back up. After that run I was sold on the big storm idea.

[Ji]

Really surpised how there is no huge ridge in the medium range like happens in these kinds of winters. This winter keeps defying la-nina logic.

Maybe it's really a nino with cold ssts

[mitchnick]

fact that last night's Euro is showing a monster 8-9 days away should be a red flag, especially since we've already had a monster crawl up the coast

this one looks to have a better chance of hitting those areas that missed the last one too

[eduggs]

I suspect that there is potential in likely pattern over the next 7-14 days.

Cool, thx.

It will be interesting to see if the GFS begins to come into agreement with the idea of a possible storm in subsequent runs.

[kurtstack]

fact that last night's Euro is showing a monster 8-9 days away should be a red flag, especially since we've already had a monster crawl up the coast

this one looks to have a better chance of hitting those areas that missed the last one too

The euro spotted the last storm at the same range. We are also in a pattern of plains storms then coastal storms about 6-10 days later. So given the pattern and that the Euro spotted the East Coast storm threat 8-10 days out last time, we should take this seriously, IMHO. Obviously all of the details with this thing won't be worked out until inside 48 hours, but it's probably safe to say a storm is most likely coming to the coast in the 8-10 day timeframe. South or North, weak or strong will be the question as it evolves.

This winter really isn't locking into the great lake runner type of pattern most were expecting.

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

Euro looks real interesting through 120

I know the Euro has a bias of holding back the energy, but it's ejecting it quicker than the GFS/GGEM, why? I'm going to assume it has something to do with the Pac Jet and how the models are digging this underneath it.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

snow into central nc and va. hr 144 1004mb low in southern ga.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

snow goes to rain in nc southern va at hr150 996mb low near ilm, nc

[Midlo Snow Maker]

988mb just east of the outer banks hr 156 snow into dc philly near nyc

[yoda]

162 looks AWFULLY familiar...

hr 162 sub sub 976 low about 75 miles east of ocean city md...mod to hvy precip dc to nyc

[Midlo Snow Maker]

976mb low well east of va capes del. southern nj gettting crushed

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

Buckle up, here we go again

[Ji]

Wow...that sped up fast. From 228 to 162 lolololololo

[mdsnowlover]

976mb low well east of va capes del. southern nj gettting crushed

are we missing it again in cent md

[Midlo Snow Maker]

another huge coastal snow storm up to long island

[mdsnowlover]

another huge coastal snow storm up to long island

can you show a graphic please??

[yoda]

are we missing it again in cent md

I don't think so

[jlewis1111]

what days are this

[Midlo Snow Maker]

are we missing it again in cent md

centreal md 0.50"

DC 0.60"

RIC 0.50"

ALL OF DEL 1"+

NYC 0.50"

ORF NEAR 1"

philly near 1"

central nj south all 1"+

[mdsnowlover]

I don't think so

where are the graphics coming from?? sv

[yoda]

centreal md 0.50"

DC 0.60"

RIC 0.50"

ALL OF DEL 1"+

NYC 0.50"

ORF NEAR 1"

philly near 1"

central nj south all 1"+

qof from this

dc .75-.85

balt .85

nyc .7-.75

phl 1

[ravensrule]

what days are this

This is Thursday into Friday.

[Amped]

Splitting of energy off the pacific coast 36-60 hrs is critical. Euro takes a piece into Washington instead of dropping it south off the California coast like other models. Huge difference inside 72hrs.

But comon sense tells you, a splitting S/W causes more problems for models than a phasing one

[TUweathermanDD]

Look's like its time to potentially track the 2nd HECS in a few weeks here, although I am not going to get excited by any stretch of the imagination. Lots to pay attention to, though the ECM solution is viable and the pattern is favorable for the M/A.