Potential winter threats

[tombo82685]

nothing much on the euro till the day 10 mark, where it shows the same storm the gfs does but a couple days later.

[nzucker]

nothing much on the euro till the day 10 mark, where it shows the same storm the gfs does but a couple days later.

Looks moderately cold after the cutter: 850s are -12C for Day 7, then around -5C for Day 8+9, then -2C for Day 10 with some very cold air moving into the Plains and a trough amplifying towards the East. Looks like we stay below normal in temperatures and may have a storm threat from overrunning, then perhaps a clipper coming down and bringing the colder air. I'm wondering if we see the coldest air of the winter around January 15-20 with the stratospheric warming currently occurring, and before the period when I expect a SE ridge to set it. I wouldn't be surprised if we had an arctic spell in the third week of January.

[SnowGoose69]

The event on the 2nd I think is low risk right now, but the chance would be for New England for sure...the event on the 4th the GFS has been showing consistently near 192 hours would favor the MA a bit more given the blocking is back on both models with the dual vortexes in southern Canada...if it weren't for the snowpack there would probably be some record highs on the 1st or 2nd but I think it will be tough with all this snow around and alot of it should still be present by the 1st.

[nzucker]

The event on the 2nd I think is low risk right now, but the chance would be for New England for sure...the event on the 4th the GFS has been showing consistently near 192 hours would favor the MA a bit more given the blocking is back on both models with the dual vortexes in southern Canada...if it weren't for the snowpack there would probably be some record highs on the 1st or 2nd but I think it will be tough with all this snow around and alot of it should still be present by the 1st.

Record highs? Are you kidding me? NYC doesn't get out of the 40s ahead of the cutter...there's low level flow off the ocean at like 72 hours and a strong high pressure anchored to the north. I could see Central Park getting up to low 50s but that's not unusual for a mid-winter cutter. Look at the damming high and low 2m temps on the 0z GFS:

72:

96:

[earthlight]

Record highs? Are you kidding me? NYC doesn't get out of the 40s ahead of the cutter...there's low level flow off the ocean at like 72 hours and a strong high pressure anchored to the north. I could see Central Park getting up to low 50s but that's not unusual for a mid-winter cutter. Look at the damming high and low 2m temps on the 0z GFS:

Yeah...I think the low 50's is even a stretch.

[nzucker]

Yeah...I think the low 50's is even a stretch.

Models have been muting this warm-up over the last few days with 850s not rising as much and low-level cold air holding tougher especially with a huge snowpack. NWS has lowered the forecast highs for Wednesday and Thursday to 37F here in Westchester as opposed to the original prediction of 40F, and we've consistently been running colder than guidance. It basically looks like a run-of-the-mill thaw with temperatures in the mid 40s outside downtown Manhattan and then a stiff cold front with 850s dropping back to -12C as per 0z ECM. I don't think this should totally destroy our snowpack especially because the low pressure cuts too far west to bring heavy rain into the region; I think this will be basically showery precipitation maybe mixing with snow as the cold air bleeds in behind the frontal passage.

[earthlight]

Models have been muting this warm-up over the last few days with 850s not rising as much and low-level cold air holding tougher especially with a huge snowpack. NWS has lowered the forecast highs for Wednesday and Thursday to 37F here in Westchester as opposed to the original prediction of 40F, and we've consistently been running colder than guidance. It basically looks like a run-of-the-mill thaw with temperatures in the mid 40s outside downtown Manhattan and then a stiff cold front with 850s dropping back to -12C as per 0z ECM. I don't think this should totally destroy our snowpack especially because the low pressure cuts too far west to bring heavy rain into the region; I think this will be basically showery precipitation maybe mixing with snow as the cold air bleeds in behind the frontal passage.

I went with low to mid 40's for highs on the blog...and a slower timing of the frontal passage. There is snowpack..and it's not like we're going to have a million and a half days to melt it. I really don't think the lower to mid 50 highs are going to come close to verifying.

I'm actually getting pretty stoked for the potential after the cutter. If the -NAO block can set up as modeled..we will have a good shot.

[nzucker]

I went with low to mid 40's for highs on the blog...and a slower timing of the frontal passage. There is snowpack..and it's not like we're going to have a million and a half days to melt it. I really don't think the lower to mid 50 highs are going to come close to verifying.

I'm actually getting pretty stoked for the potential after the cutter. If the -NAO block can set up as modeled..we will have a good shot.

Definitely agree on the LR....ECM has a good overrunning look at Day 8:

0z GFS ENS show major positive height anomalies over Greenland at Day 8:

We also have an AK block trying to develop on the LR GFS, and those tend to produce a lot of low-level arctic air, so I think we can stay below normal for the 1st half of January despite a mild cutter.

[Weathergun]

I see some potential for a significant overrunning event sometime between Jan 5th and 7th. But many models keep it south now. I think we need to ridge over the East Pacific to build faster, for a deeper system to eject out of the SW US. So it can it come further north, under the -NAO block.

[IsentropicLift]

I think everyone here is dismissing the heavy rain threat too soon. We all saw how much the models changed with the last event...everything from a bowling ball over running event to a miller A type event...and everything in between.

[Feb]

12z GFS after the warm up this coming weekend is dry and cold through the period.

[IsentropicLift]

lots of potential in the medium to long range...in any event its not even worth looking at past day 10.

[tombo82685]

ggem is showing the potential for an overrunning event during this time frame...

[KEITH L.I]

one thing we learned from this past event.-nao and -pna eventually will lead to a event of some kind. the negative nao this years has been quite impressive..it's making this winter a memorable one

[IsentropicLift]

Tombo...what is the 12z EC showing?

[tombo82685]

Tombo...what is the 12z EC showing?

only out to hr 36...i'll let you know what happens when it gets into the potential threat....

[earthlight]

only out to hr 36...i'll let you know what happens when it gets into the potential threat....

Probably kind of mundane watching it come out after this last exhilarating week or so, huh?

[tombo82685]

Probably kind of mundane watching it come out after this last exhilarating week or so, huh?

Lol yes. I had no real reason to stay up late last night. There isn't really any threats within 7 days right now, so it was just blah. That overrunning does look interesting early next week. The ggem looks pretty interesting at hr 180, but again thats 8 days away.

[IsentropicLift]

It's quite funny actually that even though most of us just saw an event that only occurs a few times each century were already looking for more...that ridge to the SE looks like its going to stick around for the near future.

[Stormlover74]

Is anyone else going through model watching withdrawal symptoms like me? :-). I'm perfectly content with waiting til the end of January or February for more snow. Although I like back to back storms like we used to get in the 80s

Lol yes. I had no real reason to stay up late last night. There isn't really any threats within 7 days right now, so it was just blah. That overrunning does look interesting early next week. The ggem looks pretty interesting at hr 180, but again thats 8 days away.

[tombo82685]

It's quite funny actually that even though most of us just saw an event that only occurs a few times each century were already looking for more...that ridge to the SE looks like its going to stick around for the near future.

i actually think the se ridge as progged is a good thing as long as its not overwhelming. If we didn't have that i think the nao would just crush any potential.

[IsentropicLift]

Is anyone else going through model watching withdrawal symptoms like me? :-). I'm perfectly content with waiting til the end of January or February for more snow. Although I like back to back storms like we used to get in the 80s

For me...part of what made the last system so great was that we had been tracking it for so long...and then it looked as if it was dead. Most of us resorted to watching the models for any glimmer of hope only to get it out of the GFS and have HPC declare it contaminated. What a roller coaster ride of events. I wonder if when the book is written on this one. whether the poor modeling will be overshadowed by the effects of the storm itself.

[Boreal]

For me...part of what made the last system so great was that we had been tracking it for so long...and then it looked as if it was dead. Most of us resorted to watching the models for any glimmer of hope only to get it out of the GFS and have HPC declare it contaminated. What a roller coaster ride of events. I wonder if when the book is written on this one. whether the poor modeling will be overshadowed by the effects of the storm itself.

This is the type of storm that will keep us all up late tracking a clipper from 8 days out in late January. It will make it harder for the die-hards to lose hope on any given storm.

[Ji]

anything good on the euro?

[tombo82685]

anything good on the euro?

it has the overrunning system to a degree but it warms it up to much out ahead of the system. Hr 198 has precip from nyc to dc but the 850s are west and the 2m temps are in the low to mid 40s

[Ji]

it has the overrunning system to a degree but it warms it up to much out ahead of the system. Hr 198 has precip from nyc to dc but the 850s are west and the 2m temps are in the low to mid 40s

plenty of time for it to get warmer:)

[SnowGoose69]

it has the overrunning system to a degree but it warms it up to much out ahead of the system. Hr 198 has precip from nyc to dc but the 850s are west and the 2m temps are in the low to mid 40s

The Euro has a tendency to like getting rid of the -NAO in the long range, there really is a sudden warming there from 190-240 on the 12Z Euro

[Inudaw]

The Euro has a tendency to like getting rid of the -NAO in the long range, there really is a sudden warming there from 190-240 on the 12Z Euro

Indeed.. the 850's are in full retreat in that time range.

[hazwoper]

Maybe we'll see an event just in time to have the Eagles home playoff game postponed

[SnoSki14]

The Euro tends to suck as much as the other models Day 8-10, I'm betting on another huge storm towards the end of the first week of January, maybe will get our 96 repeat.