tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Well, we just got done with one truly historic storm for portions of the area. Now are there any other potential threats coming up? Gfs and some of its ensemble members are showing potential in the jan 5-7th time frame. Use this thread to discuss upcoming threats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 How does the extended Euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 How does the extended Euro look? It's an extreme outlier compared to its ensemble members, but it shows a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 How does the extended Euro look? Not so great if you want winter threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 any other models hinting at anything around the 5-7th timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 any other models hinting at anything around the 5-7th timeframe? The GEM shows the same overrunning event as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Is the GEM the same as the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Is the GEM the same as the CMC? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Is the GEM the same as the CMC? Which are also synonymous with "GGEM" and "the Canadian" around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Okay thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 FWIW, I'm not all that excited about this event yet. With the ridge retreating westward and WAA out in front, there would be a lot of BL issues with this, even if it plays out close to the 216 hr model solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 It's way too far out to get overly excited about anything. But I think this time frame could have some teeth if things turn out as modeled right now by some of the superensemble forecasts and analogs. There is a nice west based -NAO block into Greenland, with a psuedo PNA ridge on the West coast. There seems to be increasing support for a good amount of cold air north of our area given that telleconnector support. Any shortwave could do the job. The pattern doesn't hold for long, though, so it will have to be done quickly. This last pattern we were in was a ticking time bomb as I said several times. We had every piece in place to an extremely anomalous degree. Something was going to give, and it did. Amazing storm system. This pattern coming up at 192+hrs offers some hope for those already looking for more flakes, though, I will say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 It's way too far out to get overly excited about anything. But I think this time frame could have some teeth if things turn out as modeled right now by some of the superensemble forecasts and analogs. There is a nice west based -NAO block into Greenland, with a psuedo PNA ridge on the West coast. There seems to be increasing support for a good amount of cold air north of our area given that telleconnector support. Any shortwave could do the job. The pattern doesn't hold for long, though, so it will have to be done quickly. This last pattern we were in was a ticking time bomb as I said several times. We had every piece in place to an extremely anomalous degree. Something was going to give, and it did. Amazing storm system. This pattern coming up at 192+hrs offers some hope for those already looking for more flakes, though, I will say that. Doesn't this pattern strike you as more of an icy mess threat than a snow threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Doesn't this pattern strike you as more of an icy mess threat than a snow threat? May very well be dependent on the shortwave ejecting northeast from the Central US, it's strength, and the southeast ridge heights. I think it's going to be interesting. We have a good amount of blocking if the GEFS has a clue--and I think there will be some good cold air in place. We will have to see. Usually I wouldn't be so confident in a shortwave being there, but the Pacific is on steroids this year...there will be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Farther out into fantasyland, the 18z GFS shows another threat...Above freezing for most folks on this run, but its another one to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Several GEFS members from 12z and 18z show a system approaching the west coast or in the SW around day 7, which matches the OP Euro. Haven't seen the GGEM or Euro ensembles however. If that's right, there could be a storm in the gulf or just north by around days 8/9. The OP GFS gets moisture in the SE even earlier than that, so we can watch for a wave moving off the east coast with some possible overrunning in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I think it's going to be tough, there seems to be a battle between the Pacific and the Atlantic. The Atlantic is trying to force blocking but the Pacific is dampening the cold shots/air and has the jet trying to slam into the U.S. as seen in a typical La Nina. I'm not sure if the renewed blocking will be strong enough to counteract the somewhat unfavorable Pacific conditions. There are also some signs of the SE ridge starting to appear, nothing big right now but typically you'd see the SE ridge strengthening throughout Jan and Feb in a La Nina. I just hope we don't see a dramatic 89-90 change from December to the rest of winter. I hope we can get one or two more decent (3-6") events this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I think it's going to be tough, there seems to be a battle between the Pacific and the Atlantic. The Atlantic is trying to force blocking but the Pacific is dampening the cold shots/air and has the jet trying to slam into the U.S. as seen in a typical La Nina. I'm not sure if the renewed blocking will be strong enough to counteract the somewhat unfavorable Pacific conditions. There are also some signs of the SE ridge starting to appear, nothing big right now but typically you'd see the SE ridge strengthening throughout Jan and Feb in a La Nina. I just hope we don't see a dramatic 89-90 change from December to the rest of winter. I hope we can get one or two more decent (3-6") events this winter. Good post. I think the problem that some folks are going to have is this. Those of you who got smacked yesterday with 1 to 2' of snow are probably going to be disappointed with the rest of the winter. Nothing is going to compare to what just happened. Those things don't come along to often, especially in a moderate to strong la nina. The problem we are going to have from here on out i believe is that most of our storm threats are going to turn out slop storms. Maybe a couple of inches followed by the sleet and rain crap. I do believe later in the winter folks like ptb and PSU hazelton will be the ones who cash in as their proximity away from the coast will help them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Good post. I think the problem that some folks are going to have is this. Those of you who got smacked yesterday with 1 to 2' of snow are probably going to be disappointed with the rest of the winter. Nothing is going to compare to what just happened. Those things don't come along to often, especially in a moderate to strong la nina. The problem we are going to have from here on out i believe is that most of our storm threats are going to turn out slop storms. Maybe a couple of inches followed by the sleet and rain crap. I do believe later in the winter folks like ptb and PSU hazelton will be the ones who cash in as their proximity away from the coast will help them. Agreed entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 FWIW, I'm not all that excited about this event yet. With the ridge retreating westward and WAA out in front, there would be a lot of BL issues with this, even if it plays out close to the 216 hr model solutions. yup, totally agree. Granted its the 18z gfs way out, but it takes a perfect track and the bl temps are still bad for the i95 cities south and east...this may be a north and west event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 yup, totally agree. Granted its the 18z gfs way out, but it takes a perfect track and the bl temps are still bad for the i95 cities south and east...this may be a north and west event. Hi everyone, first post on this site jumped ship form eastern weather forum. congrates on to everyone who got a big snow. I live in York, pa and really missed out so I hope we get hit soon because it sure does stink watching all that snow around you. for the year so far all I got is a coating ohh well thats all the crying I will do haha sorry guys. Anyways just wanted to say hi and will be along with you guys tracking the next great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 yup, totally agree. Granted its the 18z gfs way out, but it takes a perfect track and the bl temps are still bad for the i95 cities south and east...this may be a north and west event. Good. We got some catching up to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Good. We got some catching up to do! Im with you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 0z gfs slides the storm off hse and ots... precip from m/d line south in form of ice and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 0z gfs slides the storm off hse and ots... precip from m/d line south in form of ice and rain. Where was your pbp on this?!?! I'm disappointed in you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I think the more serious event comes this weekend...the 12z EC today showed low pressure forming on the front over the SE and then races it NE towards New England and OTS. I think their is alot of potential in that setup particulary with regards to coastal rains and interior snows....and dare I say Flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Where was your pbp on this?!?! I'm disappointed in you! lol i have an hr 144 limit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 GFS still shows the overrunning potential at 0z: Brutally cold in the LR; the model has been consistently latching on to the AK block developing and bringing frigid temperatures to the CONUS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 I think the more serious event comes this weekend...the 12z EC today showed low pressure forming on the front over the SE and then races it NE towards New England and OTS. I think their is alot of potential in that setup particulary with regards to coastal rains and interior snows....and dare I say Flooding ggem is going with that kind of system also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 I think the more serious event comes this weekend...the 12z EC today showed low pressure forming on the front over the SE and then races it NE towards New England and OTS. I think their is alot of potential in that setup particulary with regards to coastal rains and interior snows....and dare I say Flooding I don't think there's going to be that much flooding...surface temperatures only get into the mid 40s and the rain isn't that heavy...the low winds up too far west to bring heavy rain into NYC metro. It'll still be a mild cutter but I think it's worth getting the NAO to go mega-negative again and bring some arctic air into the picture for January. Overall, the pattern is looking pretty nice for a colder than expected January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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