Novtorcher Disco Thread

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI shows overwise

It backed waaayy off . Had 2-3” earlier runs 

[Typhoon Tip]

it's like Indian Summer used to come after a period of substantial frosts and/or even a snow fall back in the days of lore... Now?  all we have to be is relatively cooler, than we get near 80

[Damage In Tolland]

Noticed one of the Azaleas in backyard had some new flowers blooming today . 

[forkyfork]

novemborch 

[Elim72]

35 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

novemborch 

 

[powderfreak]

6 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

It'd be a miracle at this point if NNE gets even close to seasonal snowfall. We can already see a preview of the winter pattern next week with the screaming pac jet and arctic air bottled up to nunavut.

I don’t like hyperbole early on, but I think I would be fairly shocked if the mountains get near normal snowfall this winter on composite super Nino years.

Thats not to say it won’t snow, heck 235” on Mansfield is below normal.  But it feels like the deck is stacked a bit, especially if it’s a slow start.

It takes making up some good ground to catch up for struggles in even Nov/Dec when you need to hit bigger monthly normal totals in Jan/Feb/Mar.

Now, for NNE as a whole?  The lower climo snowfall areas near population centers can rely more on several good synoptic events to get closer to normal.  I think my fear up here is the daily light events struggle if it’s warm, and the 2-6” type stuff that adds up over time creates a good-sized deficit.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

novemborch 

Ha!!! Let's see where we are at the end of this month. 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noticed one of the Azaleas in backyard had some new flowers blooming today . 

Will you go below 50° this week after tomorrow AM?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Will you go below 50° this week after tomorrow AM?

Are your hydrangeas looking similar to that ? Fresh, flowering , ready 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Will you go below 50° this week after tomorrow AM?

absolutely wild for November

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

absolutely wild for November

I think I started posting about a no frost/ freeze thru Tgiving here back in early September 

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are your hydrangeas looking similar to that ? Fresh, flowering , ready 

It was 24° this morning so no.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was 24° this morning so no.

Well apparently my Davis is broken and has issues and it’s been below freezing here .. so I’m told by a few posters 

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Will you go below 50° this week after tomorrow AM?

Damn, ha. Those mins are hilarious.

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think I started posting about a no frost/ freeze thru Tgiving here back in early September 

You know your climate, plus above normal heights… the mixed layer stays mild for a long time in this regime.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You know your climate, plus above normal heights… the mixed layer stays mild for a long time in this regime.

I’ve said it before but it’s far easier to drop below freezing here in Mayorch than Octorcher . Both are uncommon , but one is still more likely than the other 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve said it before but it’s far easier to drop below freezing here in Mayorch than Octorcher . Both are uncommon , but one is still more likely than the other 

This time of year seems to max out radiational cooling with the low surface moisture.  Dry leaf litter under bare trees, absolutely zero evapotranspiration because everything is dormant.

Frequent high pressure and low sun angle.

This evening locally is classic.  Edge of Stowe Country Club station is 39F while just up West Hill is 46F.  I’m at 40F north of there.

Stowe Hollow has a 52F vs 40F over a half a mile.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve said it before but it’s far easier to drop below freezing here in Mayorch than Octorcher . Both are uncommon , but one is still more likely than the other 

it'll be November eventually :x 

[FlashFreeze]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well apparently my Davis is broken and has issues and it’s been below freezing here .. so I’m told by a few posters 

I was in Lennox MA for most of the last two weeks and on six days the low was in the 20s and the rest except for Friday weren’t far from freezing.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t like hyperbole early on, but I think I would be fairly shocked if the mountains get near normal snowfall this winter on composite super Nino years.

Thats not to say it won’t snow, heck 235” on Mansfield is below normal.  But it feels like the deck is stacked a bit, especially if it’s a slow start.

It takes making up some good ground to catch up for struggles in even Nov/Dec when you need to hit bigger monthly normal totals in Jan/Feb/Mar.

Now, for NNE as a whole?  The lower climo snowfall areas near population centers can rely more on several good synoptic events to get closer to normal.  I think my fear up here is the daily light events struggle if it’s warm, and the 2-6” type stuff that adds up over time creates a good-sized deficit.

You will be snowing on Mansfield by next weekend and clean up in Dec. Watch