October 2026 Medium/Long Range

[MDSnow93]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z euro ai = woweeee

About 90 hours of rain if taken verbatim 

[AlexD1990]

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z euro ai = woweeee

guess its time for me to renew aguacero for models, lol. but in the meantime, can you drop a hint? 

[WxUSAF]

34 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

guess its time for me to renew aguacero for models, lol. but in the meantime, can you drop a hint? 

Euro AI basically stalls it between OBX and OCMD from late Tuesday through Saturday before bringing it onshore and dissipating. Sharp gradient of rainfall. But 3”+ for the eastern shore and VA beach areas. 
 

Op euro keeps it offshore the whole time. Just a beach erosion concern.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro AI basically stalls it between OBX and OCMD from late Tuesday through Saturday before bringing it onshore and dissipating. Sharp gradient of rainfall. But 3”+ for the eastern shore and VA beach areas. 
 

Op euro keeps it offshore the whole time. Just a beach erosion concern.

@CAPE gets his revenge for missing out on Isaias

[CAPE]

The strength/position of HP to the north will largely determine the impacts in our area from the developing coastal low. Looks like areas right along the coast would bear the brunt, with maybe some showers along and east of I-95. Looks breezy and coolish at the least- pretty Fall-like.

[frd]

 

Ryan Kane

 

@ryankanerWX

 

https://x.com/ryankanerWX/status/2111481037033296266/photo/1

 

 

The latest Euro weeklies run with the troughiness over the western US slowly pushing westward into the pacific makes sense to me. This would allow a more poleward flow at times into CONUS, increasing the chances for cold air intrusions for mid-late November. For now the cold likely stays bottled up through early November. A more typical, strong +ENSO pattern is beginning to take shape come November into December. For snow lovers across the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast, this will be a high boom/bust winter which will all be determined from Jan 15-Feb 15th. I'll have my full synopsis in my winter forecast on Sunday, November 1st. #EcWx #MdWx

 

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS; looks like the coastal will stay offshore on the latest runs.  Cool and dry week ahead for most of us.

[frd]

16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS; looks like the coastal will stay offshore on the latest runs.  Cool and dry week ahead for most of us.

WPC has shifted most of the rainfall off the coast even in areas to our Southeast and South.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, frd said:

 

Ryan Kane

 

@ryankanerWX

 

https://x.com/ryankanerWX/status/2111481037033296266/photo/1

 

 

The latest Euro weeklies run with the troughiness over the western US slowly pushing westward into the pacific makes sense to me. This would allow a more poleward flow at times into CONUS, increasing the chances for cold air intrusions for mid-late November. For now the cold likely stays bottled up through early November. A more typical, strong +ENSO pattern is beginning to take shape come November into December. For snow lovers across the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast, this will be a high boom/bust winter which will all be determined from Jan 15-Feb 15th. I'll have my full synopsis in my winter forecast on Sunday, November 1st. #EcWx #MdWx

 

 

 

Never heard of this guy. Working his own gig or what?

[stormy]

Latest guidance keeps us very dry thru the remainder of October.

Freeze tonight for many western locations !!!

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Never heard of this guy. Working his own gig or what?

Works for weather consulting firm.   Weeklies are interesting.