October 2026

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

29..we froze

 

RIP growing season

34 here this morning. The peppers and pole lima beans in my garden look fine. The growing season continues here. 

[SACRUS]

From 30 - 64 now blue skies, great late october day

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Monday will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach 70° on Monday. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday before temperatures again warm into the lower and middle 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was +6.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.543 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

39 this morning on top of the hill. High of 63

[FPizz]

29 to 61.  Felt nice taking the dogs for a walk.  Trees really popping now

[jm1220]

We’ll crash fast outside the city-winds are pretty calm and dewpoints around 30. I’m pretty confident many drop into the 30s again and maybe near freezing (of course outside the city). 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/23/2026 at 3:01 PM, winterwx21 said:

Looks like mid 30s here tonight, so I think we'll be ok. The vegetable garden will likely continue for quite awhile. 

As others have pointed out, the fall foliage season this year has been strange with some trees early and some late. Overall not as nice as last year too. I was up at Swartwood State Park in Sussex County yesterday, and trees that were a brilliant red/orange at the same time last year didn't have that color yesterday. The color was very muted. Still some nice trees here and there, but nothing like last year. Kind of a surprise too because it was supposed to be a spectacular foliage season due to the fact that we got plenty of rain in summer. Strange that last season was better after the summer drought. 

First of all that drought talk was way overblown. l admit we had a wonderful drought in late 2024 October 2024 was my favorite October of all time. Last year was NOT a drought.  I dont subscribe to inflated averages for rain any more than I do for snow. Last year we had the ideal amount of rain for fall foliage.  This year we had way too much. What the flood mongers and raininistas won't tell you is that TOO MUCH RAIN IS JUST AS BAD FOR FALL FOLIAGE AS TOO LITTLE RAIN.  It's simple science extra water dilutes the color producing chemicals in the leaves and thats why you see muted colors. It's the same reason that drier years produce far better and vintage wines. If we had had this nice dry period a month ago the story would have been different,  the fall foliage season would have been much better.

 

 

12 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

29..we froze

 

RIP growing season

Same 29 here.

 

12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Crazy warmth showing later this week into November.  Multiple days of low to mid 70s, maybe upper 70s. Wow

80 would be crazy warm. 70s is not that warm.

 

11 hours ago, FPizz said:

29 here as well

29 was the most common low.

 

10 hours ago, MANDA said:

34 was the low here this morning on top of the hill.  Walpack bottomed out at 22.  High Point got down to 32.

Low lying / valley locations the clear winners this morning on overnight mins.  Perfect conditions for radiational cooling overnight.

Quiet weather continues for the coming week with still no rainfall for the next 7 days at least.

29 here so in between you and Walpack.

 

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Verification:

Allentown: 32°; Actual: 30°
Bridgeport: 38°; Actual: 39°
Danbury: 31°; Actual: 30°
Islip: 40°; Actual: 36°
New York City-Central Park: 43°; Actual: 44°
New York City-JFK Airport: 44°; Actual: 42°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45°; Actual: 48°
Newark: 41°; Actual: 39°
Poughkeepsie: 30°; Actual: 28°
Westhampton: 34°; Actual: 28°
White Plains: 37°; Actual: 39° 

Average Error: 2.4°

Mount Pocono Don?

Here are my lows across four sensors:

28.8, 29.1, 29.3 and 29.9

ilI'll say the low was 29 here.  The high was 58.

Don what's the average first 20s low here? Also do you remember what year it was between 2014 and 2019 I remember it was in the teens here with snow squalls around here all day that covered the back deck on or even just before October 20th and even JFK reached freezing on that morning and some reporting stations on the south shore of Nassau County were as low as 28? It was either on a Saturday or Sunday.

 

12 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

30 here; nearby sensors seem to depict local temp inversions between the higher locals and valleys. 

It would be interesting to see if secind story sensors recorded higher temperatures than first story sensors. 

 

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

51 / 36 and another onshore but dry day.  Hit 30.5 here this morning. Overall at or above normal the next week with a few days pushing into the 70s in the warm spots Mon / Thu - Sat and continued dry. Next shot at meaningful rain if something else doesnt materialize this week, would be towars 11/1-11/4 period as trough digs and moves into the MW.

 

 

We could go through the end of the month without any rain shades of October 2024

 

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2001)
NYC: 79 (2001)
LGA:  80 (2001)
JFK: 74 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 28 (1969)
NYC: 31 (1969)
LGA: 30 (1969)
JFK: 32 (1969)

Historical:

 

1785 - A four day rain swelled the Merrimack River in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to the greatest height of record causing extensive damage to bridges and mills. (David Ludlum)

1878 - A hurricane produced widespread damage across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. At Philadelphia PA, the hurricane was the worst of record. (David Ludlum)

 

1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington - Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851.

1937 - A snow squall in Buffalo NY tied up traffic in six inches of slush. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The Bar Harbor holocaust occurred in Maine when forest fires consumed homes and a medical research institute. The fires claimed 17 lives, and caused thirty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1951 - Sacramento, CA, reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record for October. (The Weather Channel)

1969 - Unseasonably cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Lows of 10 degrees at Concord, NH, and 6 degrees at Albany NY established October records. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Snow fell across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight, with five inches reported at Poplar Lake MN and Gunflint Trail MN. Thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding in south central Arizona, with street flooding reported around Las Vegas NV. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph downed some trees and power lines in western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure centered produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with six inches reported at Ironwood MI. Wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at State College PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains around Lake Tahoe, with 21 inches reported at Donner Summit. Thunderstorms in northern California produced 3.36 inches of rain at Redding to establish a 24 hour record for October, and bring their rainfall total for the month to a record 5.11 inches. Chiefly "Indian Summer" type weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s. Record highs included 74 degrees at International Falls MN, and 86 degrees at Yankton SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Hurricane Wilma reached the U.S. coastline near Everglades City in Florida with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The hurricane accelerated across south Florida and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, exiting the coast later the same day. There were 10 fatalities in Florida, and nearly 6 million people lost power, the most widespread power outage in Florida history. Preliminary estimates of insured losses in Florida were over $6 billion, while uninsured losses were over $12 billion.

1878 storm was that the Saxby Gale? Where did it make landfall?

Note how warm it was around this time in 2001 and how that winter turned out. But it was record cold around this time in 1969 and that winter wasnt snowy either.

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

29 to 61.  Felt nice taking the dogs for a walk.  Trees really popping now

Same 29 low here but the high was 58 here.

 

[Stormlover74]

On 10/23/2026 at 3:01 PM, winterwx21 said:

Looks like mid 30s here tonight, so I think we'll be ok. The vegetable garden will likely continue for quite awhile. 

As others have pointed out, the fall foliage season this year has been strange with some trees early and some late. Overall not as nice as last year too. I was up at Swartwood State Park in Sussex County yesterday, and trees that were a brilliant red/orange at the same time last year didn't have that color yesterday. The color was very muted. Still some nice trees here and there, but nothing like last year. Kind of a surprise too because it was supposed to be a spectacular foliage season due to the fact that we got plenty of rain in summer. Strange that last season was better after the summer drought. 

And I was in Hunterdon county yesterday and there was great color but overall I think its tough to get uniform good or bad color around here. It's usually pretty mixed and seems hard to predict

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Mount Pocono Don?

Here are my lows across four sensors:

28.8, 29.1, 29.3 and 29.9

ilI'll say the low was 29 here.  The high was 58.

Don what's the average first 20s low here? Also do you remember what year it was between 2014 and 2019 I remember it was in the teens here with snow squalls around here all day that covered the back deck on or even just before October 20th and even JFK reached freezing on that morning and some reporting stations on the south shore of Nassau County were as low as 28? It was either on a Saturday or Sunday.

 

This morning's low at Mount Pocono was 27°.

October 17 is the average date for first 20s. Last year's October 10 was earlier than usual.

The only recent year that I recall JFK's reaching 32° in October was 2020 (October 31st). That day, the high-low split for MPO was 39°-22°. That was the coldest October high temperature since 2012 when the high was also 39°. However, since you mentioned a date prior to October 20, that might have been October 19, 2015. The low was 20° but the high reached 49°.

Nothing like that is likely in the near-term. Forecast uncertainty increases toward the end of the forecast period on the NBM:

That's the period that the NBM has recently shown the most warming from its forecast of 12 hours ago.