2026-2027 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Tyler Penland]

36 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

My low was 41 degrees and my high was 74 today. Beautiful. 

We had our first 30s of the season at 39. Was 38 down on the river below me and 45 a few hundred yards up the hill. Wild how big a swing you can get with radiational cooling in the valleys this time of year.

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

We had our first 30s of the season at 39. Was 38 down on the river below me and 45 a few hundred yards up the hill. Wild how big a swing you can get with radiational cooling in the valleys this time of year.

Yeah no kidding.  These microclimates around here are fun to watch.

[Buckethead]

Yeah no kidding.  These microclimates around here are fun to watch.

I was at 53 at 7am at the house at 4360 while 1.5 miles away it was 41 at my office at the bottom of the mountain at 3200'. Never ceases to amaze me.

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

45 at the house this morning. TS Isaias is strengthening fairly quickly overnight ahead of schedule and the forecast track has shifted E to near Mobile Bay. NHC in their 5 AM discussion stated that the track could shift further E later today and Hurricane Watches are likely this afternoon along portions of the Northern Gulf Coast. Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft will begin low level sampling missions today. 

[Met1985]

When I left the house my temp was 45 degrees.  I'm really hoping we at least get an inch of rainfall this weekend. 

[Met1985]

42 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

45 at the house this morning. TS Isaias is strengthening fairly quickly overnight ahead of schedule and the forecast track has shifted E to near Mobile Bay. NHC in their 5 AM discussion stated that the track could shift further E later today and Hurricane Watches are likely this afternoon along portions of the Northern Gulf Coast. Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft will begin low level sampling missions today. 

Yeah I think this thing comes East on the inland track as well. Should bring us some very beneficial rains.

[Tyler Penland]

HWRF slams the escarpment on rainfall. A further east track sets up nearly perfect enhanced southeast flow. It bumps PWATs up to nearly 2" with 30-40kt southeast winds at 925mb. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Afternoon updated 5 Day QPF forecast is out.

[Met1985]

38 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Afternoon updated 5 Day QPF forecast is out.

Honestly I hope this thing moves east. We need the rainfall.  May cause minor flooding but it is what it is.

[Moonhowl]

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Honestly I hope this thing moves east. We need the rainfall.  May cause minor flooding but it is what it is.

A bit different antecedent moisture conditions now than before the last tropical system that came this way to say the least.  Scary dry IMBY, definitely want the rain but not the wind.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

I'm not to concerned about a significant wind threat at this time as Isaias will likely have transitioned to Extra Tropical by the time it makes it to our latitude. Looks like less than an inch near the border and 1 to 3 inches along the Escarpment with a couple of isolated total of 4 to 6 inches in upslope areas. A weak cold front arrives Friday setting up CAD that actually could reduce rainfall amounts. The highest gusts I'm currently seeing are in to 30 to 35 range. I'll take a closer look in the morning for our local Region.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

The 5PM Update shows Isaias stronger with sustained winds of 65. Tropical Storm Force wind extend out 60 miles from the center. The track was adjusted further E giving a nod to the AI guidance.

[Met1985]

32 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

The 5PM Update shows Isaias stronger with sustained winds of 65. Tropical Storm Force wind extend out 60 miles from the center. The track was adjusted further E giving a nod to the AI guidance.

Good signs for us.

[Met1985]

Well this thing has trended west so we may not get much rain at all around here 

[Tyler Penland]

20 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Well this thing has trended west so we may not get much rain at all around here 

I've been looking for a late season analog that jumped NNW/NW after landfall and I haven't been able to find one. I think we see a slight eastward adjustment today to account for the trough coming in. 

[Met1985]

27 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I've been looking for a late season analog that jumped NNW/NW after landfall and I haven't been able to find one. I think we see a slight eastward adjustment today to account for the trough coming in. 

I hope so. You'd think it would push it more eastward. 

[Tyler Penland]

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I hope so. You'd think it would push it more eastward. 

I mean you can see the trough shearing it off on the left side this morning. It's not just going to bulldoze into that, and even if the "center" does technically move I don't think it will matter much after landfall- going to be a rapidly expanding moisture envelope. My biggest concern about rain is coastal convection cutting us off. I've noticed a weak low type thing on the hurricane models and now the globals a little bit trying to pop off the SC/GA coast. Could cut moisture flow off some.

[Met1985]

49 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I mean you can see the trough shearing it off on the left side this morning. It's not just going to bulldoze into that, and even if the "center" does technically move I don't think it will matter much after landfall- going to be a rapidly expanding moisture envelope. My biggest concern about rain is coastal convection cutting us off. I've noticed a weak low type thing on the hurricane models and now the globals a little bit trying to pop off the SC/GA coast. Could cut moisture flow off some.

Yeah I've been reading that may be the biggest problem with moisture heading this way is that convection along the coast will rob us.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

I don't see that much change in my thinking on rainfall amounts for the Mountains. I am seeing some indication of higher winds, particularly for the Ridgeline and the Valleys as Isaias is absorbed by the trough and transitions into an upper low. Wind gusts to 50 look possible along the Ridges and in the Valley areas gusts to 40 could be possible. 

[strongwxnc]

49 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

I don't see that much change in my thinking on rainfall amounts for the Mountains. I am seeing some indication of higher winds, particularly for the Ridgeline and the Valleys as Isaias is absorbed by the trough and transitions into an upper low. Wind gusts to 50 look possible along the Ridges and in the Valley areas gusts to 40 could be possible. 

 

High end totals out of GSP

Forecast totals

[Maggie Valley Steve]

GSP updated information just posted.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Isaias nearing Major Hurricane status per the NHC 5 AM advisory. They discussed some concerns on when strengthening wind shear actually begin to impact the cyclone. A 6 hour delay on the onset of shear could bring a Major Hurricane landfall near Pensacola/ Ft Walton Beach area late tonight or early tomorrow morning. 

Local impacts forecast has increased rainfall amounts along the Escarpment and winds may be higher in the Mountains than what GSP mentioned yesterday. GSP in their morning disco mentioned that a Flood Watch might be needed later today. Also, there is a possibility of Wind Advisory tomorrow morning for the Mountains. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Isaias is now a Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 120 in and near the eyewall. Tropical Storm Force wind extend out just about 200 miles from the center.

[GoAPPS]

Isaias is now a major hurricane.

7:20 AM CDT Fri Oct 09
Location: 27.0°N 87.6°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

 

[Tyler Penland]

Also seeing it run east of the forecast track a bit. Destin landfall seems likely at this point. HRRR drops the hammer with rain on the escarpment tomorrow night. 

[Tyler Penland]

BTW, has anybody checked on GSP? They have yet to issue a single watch or advisory for this. Getting on my nerves having counties in my area of Georgia under a Flood/High Wind Watch right next door under FFC but nothing at all from GSP.

[ncjoaquin]

2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

BTW, has anybody checked on GSP? They have yet to issue a single watch or advisory for this. Getting on my nerves having counties in my area of Georgia under a Flood/High Wind Watch right next door under FFC but nothing at all from GSP.

I have noticed, too, that GSP never uses the Hazardous Weather outlook. If this doesn't warrant a watch, you would think that they would at least issue a Hazardous Weather outlook. Other forecast offices have. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

BTW, has anybody checked on GSP? They have yet to issue a single watch or advisory for this. Getting on my nerves having counties in my area of Georgia under a Flood/High Wind Watch right next door under FFC but nothing at all from GSP.

They were holding off for another cycle of guidance to address the potential of a Flood Watch. They started that it was too early to address the wind threat with a Wind Advisory in their morning disco. Always too conservative in my opinion, but it is what it is.

[strongwxnc]

11 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

BTW, has anybody checked on GSP? They have yet to issue a single watch or advisory for this. Getting on my nerves having counties in my area of Georgia under a Flood/High Wind Watch right next door under FFC but nothing at all from GSP.

From the AFD at 6:45 from GSP

"In fact, the trend in the model QPF is upward on this cycle, but the question remains if the amounts will be enough to raise more of a flooding threat."

"Confidence is 50/50 as to whether or not this will be enough to trigger flooding to warrant issuing a Watch this early, so we are leaning away from it and prefer to wait one more forecast cycle."

[BooneWX]

6 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

They were holding off for another cycle of guidance to address the potential of a Flood Watch. They started that it was too early to address the wind threat with a Wind Advisory in their morning disco. Always too conservative in my opinion, but it is what it is.

IMO they’ve never been great at PR. I don’t necessarily blame them - that’s a different set of expertise but nonetheless, I think all offices get a bit too caught up in technicalities and splitting hairs. The greater public doesn’t operate with the mindset of what PWAT anomalies might or might not be, lift, probability of winds getting mixed down to the surface etc etc. Sometimes, you just have to look at the system as a whole imo and ask “does it elevate the risk of injury, death or property damage, and would us issuing these warnings make people take the system more seriously?” The answer is yes.