Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Segment from July 25th blog:

Alternative Scenarios....AKA "What can Go 'Wrong' "

Lagged North Atlantic Climate Response to Solar Variability

 

There has been a primary emphasis within this writing to adequately portray the sun as the both the omnipotent and omnipresent figure that it is as it pertains to the earth's atmosphere. Indeed, from it's influence on the polar domain via the modulation of ENSO by the degree of solar irradiance emitted, it's modulation of the arctic via the transmission of geomagnetic energy via the solar wind throughout the stratosphere, it's reach around the globe is boundless. It has also been established that the atmosphere in largely governed by the oft delayed feedback between the land, sea and air that serves to budget the immense degree of solar energy that is concentrated around the equator by redistributing it upward. First in altitude via the convergence and upward ascent of air due to convection, which is a term referring to concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms. Then eventually poleward by both major storms such as hurricanes, which are essentially spinning gyres of convection, as well as ocean currents and oscillations. This epitomizes how the cycle of ocean and air processes act to budget heat around the globe, which was touched upon in an oblique manner when referencing the interplay between the sun and the poles at work in the "bottom-up" theory. The work of Sciafe et al, 2013 is revolutionary in that it ostensibly bridges the previously discussed works concerning polar sensitivity to the solar cycle with prior research (Czaja, 2002) positing a 6 month lag between the leading of the NAO by the 500mb pattern over the Atlantic. The work posits the Atlantic also has a sensitivity to solar UV variability that triggers an immediate atmospheric signature that takes several years to accumulate in the subsurface of the ocean, during which time the atmospheric response progressively increases as part of a coupled feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The response continuously projects onto the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the familiar tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature, as referenced by Cjaza et al (2002), with a lag time of 2-4 years (Sciafe et al 2013). Thus is it is reasonable to conclude from the preponderance of evidence owed to a multitude of varied research efforts that changes in solar irradiance along the progression of the solar cycle trigger instant surface responses that subsequently progress through the subsurface, and then ultimately resurface through a process of meridional overturning. This reemergence fosters a delayed feedback (6 months) between the sea and air that can be self-sustaining. Member stormchaserchuck1 at Americanwx.com weather forum has put this theory into practice. His index consists of a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the

 

  North Atlantic (blue box - red box). Because the northern area has more volatility, the total dataset, SSTs and NAOwere normalized by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. 

When blue box is cold SSTs, a negative NAO is implied for Winter.

 When red box in warm SSTs, a negative NAO Winter. For comparison, and red box is 65%

 value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa.

Thus far, through July 15, which is about 50% of the way through the identified May 1st- September 30th period, it is estimated that the index currently signals approximately a -0.40 for DJFM NAO predictor. Since the standard deviation is .50, there is it a 50% chance of having the DJFM NAO calculate between -0.90 and +.10.

The .40 mean of the polar analog composite would rival the 2012-2013 season and would be the most negative NAO season since 2009-2010. Unsurprisingly, both of these seasons occurred during the easterly phase of the QBO and coincided with the ascending portion of the solar cycle. Given the previously discussed westerly phase of the QBO that is ongoing in conjunction with the pending peak geomagnetic energy, it is expected that this formula will normalize over the course of the next two+ months. In the event that it does not, it should be interpreted as a nod towards the increased volatility within the polar domain relative to the classic east-based seasons that has been advertised. The fact that ample evidence has been provided for increased volatility during the second half of the DJFM winter season also implies that this may represent a feasible plausibility that will need to be evaluated over between now and the onset of boreal winter

Great stuff.

I am curious as to what influence the northern Pacific will have on the Arctic domain this winter. Obviously the are backing off the vast -PDO regime we had been in, with help to the developing EL Nino but we are in unique territory regarding the state of the PDO. This is a situation where I don't think a raw numerical values tells the entire story here. Clearly we're heading towards more in the way of a +PDO structure but those absurdly warm anomalies from Japan across the north Pacific IMO still reflect which is by large a -PDO. 

Based on how the EL Nino has developed, combined with the state of the Pacific, my anticipation would be an significantly far north sub tropical jet this winter and once that is very juiced. Now, that is something that could bode well for us if the cards align but we'd also be talking about a raging jet and it may be very difficult to get surges of Arctic air to displace southwards. I would have to think we would need to see a -NAO/AO of historic territory to give any shot. Even if we did get a -NAO during the winter, it may not be much help and if anything could increase potential for warmth if its structured in a way where the above average heights connect with the jet and propels it even further north. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one.

I know some people will say well it will just supercharge whatever we had for a strong or super Niño. I’m not sure you can apply that linear logic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you could tell me that the GOA low will be just west enough or perhaps not as strong as some are anticipating so that if we do get a negative NAO, there’s a little bit of a cold source in Canada, I would definitely have a change in attitude.

 

We obviously do not need Canada to be an icebox, I think we all agree on that. But what I worry about  is that we have this split flow totally void of any money in the bank in Canada and raging STJ that basically combines up with any negative NAO ridging. 
 

if I would make a call, I would have BN snowfall, but I’m not anticipating a massive skunk in terms of snowfall. Especially the interior.

I will say that @Typhoon Tipwere musing just yesterday about a theoretical "unicorn-scenario" in which the residual cool ENSO residue retards the development of said GOA low in such a manner as to allow for that. Said impact would need to be both more subtle than 2023 and more apparent than 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know some people will say well it will just supercharge whatever we had for a strong or super Niño. I’m not sure you can apply that linear logic.

That is exactly what I am grappling with. If your thinking is fixed firmly within the box with respect to seasonal forecasting, then your final forecast product is likely to suffer a large degree of error.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Great stuff.

I am curious as to what influence the northern Pacific will have on the Arctic domain this winter. Obviously the are backing off the vast -PDO regime we had been in, with help to the developing EL Nino but we are in unique territory regarding the state of the PDO. This is a situation where I don't think a raw numerical values tells the entire story here. Clearly we're heading towards more in the way of a +PDO structure but those absurdly warm anomalies from Japan across the north Pacific IMO still reflect which is by large a -PDO. 

Based on how the EL Nino has developed, combined with the state of the Pacific, my anticipation would be an significantly far north sub tropical jet this winter and once that is very juiced. Now, that is something that could bode well for us if the cards align but we'd also be talking about a raging jet and it may be very difficult to get surges of Arctic air to displace southwards. I would have to think we would need to see a -NAO/AO of historic territory to give any shot. Even if we did get a -NAO during the winter, it may not be much help and if anything could increase potential for warmth if its structured in a way where the above average heights connect with the jet and propels it even further north. 

Get out of my head.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We literally are the only area of the country that didn’t crushed with severe this summer . Just gouging eyes out with grapefruit spoon 

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve never seen anything like it. 

For CT at least, July 4th was a pretty big widespread severe event day. Otherwise, pretty much crickets. It's not that it's quiet, it's that north south and west of us have had big years. Hell, even the fish have seen better storms than some of us. 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Only chance of an interesting fall is home brew a stuff off SE coast. 

 

46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The upper-level pattern has done wonders to really warm the waters too in recent weeks. +28C to +29C up to the NC/VA border

Speaking of water temperatures, where all the people freaking out about that "cold blob" in the north Atlantic that is no longer really there  

Going to need a lot more than warm SSTs for something off the coast. Tropical waves can't get to the western Atlantic because shear is absolutely obliterating them. Dolly formed, ran into a buzzsaw, and even when it found a favorable environment off the SE coast it couldn't do anything because there was nothing left. 

Going to need either a well-timed wave to make it through the gauntlet into the Bahamas late September or a CAG system yanked north in October. Anything popping off a stalled front is just going to pass well OTS.  

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah I don't get what all that hype and "doomsday" view on that was all about. At least IMO, a part of me believes too its part of the decline of the +AMO regime as we strive towards a -AMO regime. 

20-30 years of a quiet(er) Atlantic...

[40/70 Benchmark]

My feeling is that more often than not, we are going to struggle with precip type, but the region still may very well score climo snowfall from the couple of events in which we do not have that issue.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

For CT at least, July 4th was a pretty big widespread severe event day. Otherwise, pretty much crickets. It's not that it's quiet, it's that north south and west of us have had big years. Hell, even the fish have seen better storms than some of us. 

 

Going to need a lot more than warm SSTs for something off the coast. Tropical waves can't get to the western Atlantic because shear is absolutely obliterating them. Dolly formed, ran into a buzzsaw, and even when it found a favorable environment off the SE coast it couldn't do anything because there was nothing left. 

Going to need either a well-timed wave to make it through the gauntlet into the Bahamas late September or a CAG system yanked north in October. Anything popping off a stalled front is just going to pass well OTS.  

20-30 years of a quiet(er) Atlantic...

Agreed. The prospects for anything seem super slim...would need something to probably form along a stalled front...no waves are going to make it that far west, especially considering the shear should only continue strengthening through the MDR

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

For CT at least, July 4th was a pretty big widespread severe event day. Otherwise, pretty much crickets. It's not that it's quiet, it's that north south and west of us have had big years. Hell, even the fish have seen better storms than some of us. 

 

Going to need a lot more than warm SSTs for something off the coast. Tropical waves can't get to the western Atlantic because shear is absolutely obliterating them. Dolly formed, ran into a buzzsaw, and even when it found a favorable environment off the SE coast it couldn't do anything because there was nothing left. 

Going to need either a well-timed wave to make it through the gauntlet into the Bahamas late September or a CAG system yanked north in October. Anything popping off a stalled front is just going to pass well OTS.  

20-30 years of a quiet(er) Atlantic...

I was thinking like some sort of tropical-thingy zipping NW. AKA October 2021.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is exactly what I am grappling with. If your thinking is fixed firmly within the box with respect to seasonal forecasting, then your final forecast product is likely to suffer a large degree of error.

Maybe it is as simple as that, who knows. But it’s such a huge expanse of warm water. Just a little hesitant in applying that thinking.