Severe Weather 8/10 - 8/13

[pen_artist]

After yesterday's surprise uptick, figured creating a thread might be good for what models have really highlighted-- consistently-- as being the most active stretch, is warranted. 

[A-L-E-K]

lots of sun this morning, feels juiced af even with the light e winds

 

[pen_artist]

Day 2 Enhanced introduced. The way it is outlooked, has the making of a long term wind event, possible derecho. 

[A-L-E-K]

lots of guidance selling an early morning long track MCS

[A-L-E-K]

klot currently 86/82

dews def pooling along the stationary boundary

[nvck]

severe watch just got expanded WAY west, covering i think all of ILN's FA now. pretty surprising, given neither the hrrr or rrfs develop much (if any) convection here through sunset. 

[Greenwald]

Interesting discrepancy between the CSU and NWS on the area of severity. CSU seems to be leaning more south central IN / southern OH event. I guess we'll see what 00z offers.

 

[pen_artist]

Doubt it verifies verbatim but 18z HRRR sniffing out some max wind gusts of 100 mph in DuPage co. with the midday complex tomorrow. Taking it with a grain of salt but thinking we'll see some 80+ gusts if consistency continues. 

[Possum]

The thunder last night was unbelievable, some of the loudest I can recall hearing.

As for today, sun just started peeking out in Humboldt Park. Feels juicy out there.


.

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, Possum said:

The thunder last night was unbelievable, some of the loudest I can recall hearing.

As for today, sun just started peeking out in Humboldt Park. Feels juicy out there.


.

Yeah banged good

[A-L-E-K]

hot hand

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

klot now @ 90/84 about as juiced as this area gets 

[Chicago Storm]

Had pea size hail at home with yesterday afternoon's round of activity.

The evening/night round of activity didn't amount to much, kind of splitting by north and south.

[MidwestChaser]

The hires Nam was bleh, but that hrr run was nice.

[nvck]

3 hours ago, nvck said:

severe watch just got expanded WAY west, covering i think all of ILN's FA now. pretty surprising, given neither the hrrr or rrfs develop much (if any) convection here through sunset. 

Expired the watch two hours early amidst totally blue skies. 

[King James]

Big towers going up south and east of me with peaks of sun. Skies to the north and west a blanket of gray

[MidwestChaser]

Blue box just issued.

HRRR still coming in hot for tomorrow.

[nvck]

Flooding may end up being the bigger headline around here if the timing doesn't play out right with the rounds of storms

[sbnwx85]

Storms are firing a county or two south of me. And they’re probably going to stay down there most of the night.

[frostfern]

It looks like the mode will be slow moving semi-supercells just like last night.

[MidwestChaser]

What was the point of that watch. Canceled after an hour lmao.

[sbnwx85]

1 hour ago, nvck said:

Flooding may end up being the bigger headline around here if the timing doesn't play out right with the rounds of storms

Look out Fort Wayne. Storms are lined up like a train.

[nvck]

4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Look out Fort Wayne. Storms are lined up like a train.

already a radar estimated 1-1.25" along an axis just south of the city, in about an hour. feel like we'll start to FFWs issued in another hour or so

[sbnwx85]

Really cool seeing the outflow boundary from the storms to the south of me on radar and in person.

side note: it feels so much nicer out here now lol

[Chicago Storm]

i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is.

there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard.

[cyclone77]

Pretty beefy RAOB this evening from DVN.

 

[nvck]

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Pretty beefy RAOB this evening from DVN.

 

good lord

[Greenwald]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is.

there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard.

I'm wondering about that and also in the 2:43 PM IWX AFD they mentioned signs of the boundry pushing south into central Indiana tomorrow. 

[Chicago Storm]

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is.

there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard.

development has occurred. we'll see how it trends the remainder of the night and into the morning.

the bigger issue may end up being upstream, actually. most guidance is doing a fairly bad job regarding the evolution of things across the dakotas and vicinity. most guidance suggested that mcs formation would come from supercells tracking across the dakotas this evening and tonight, paired with additional development as well. not only should that scenario already have been unfolding by now, but it seems to be out the window based on evolution in reality over the past few hours.

if this big mcs is going to come to fruition, it'll have to be from an entirely different process than most guidance had shown.