Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Has there been any other occasion with a 10% hatched for tornadoes in New England?

We've had 10% hatched before but this is the first time with the CIG additions which only became operational some months ago 

[CoastalWx]

Lets level Maine and Stein here per 12z hrrr.

[CoastalWx]

Given the nowcast nature of these and the boundary set forth by the initial storms...definitely might want to watch the areas west of where SPC highlights. Just has that look/feel.

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Given the nowcast nature of these and the boundary set forth by the initial storms...definitely might want to watch the areas west of where SPC highlights. Just has that look/feel.

12z NAM supports that idea

[OceanStWx]

24 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Has there been any other occasion with a 10% hatched for tornadoes in New England?

One time?

[Hoth]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

One time?

Why do you feel the need to hurt me like this?

[Chrisrotary12]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

One time?

Did it produce?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Did it produce?

Tornadoes no but I think that was the day of the big microburst or macroburst near Boston...either this day or the next. 

[weatherwiz]

One of those two weekend days had a big microbust in CT and the other was up near Boston 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Did it produce?

Two long tracked supercells that produced swaths of wind damage. Sadly for some, no tornadoes.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Two long tracked supercells that produced swaths of wind damage. Sadly for some, no tornadoes.

I was sitting in the McDonalds parking lot across from BDL when the tornado warning went out and was hoping something would drop 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I was sitting in the McDonalds parking lot across from BDL when the tornado warning went out and was hoping something would drop 

That kind of behavior gets you on neighborhood watch lists. 

[Cyclone-68]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One of those two weekend days had a big microbust in CT and the other was up near Boston 

Not 100% sure but I think that happened within a mile of where I live now 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Not 100% sure but I think that happened within a mile of where I live now 

That was a pike SUP that nailed BOS and Revere. I don't think there was much anywhere else.

[CoastalWx]

KInd of a bust with MDT risk IIRC.

[CoastalWx]

Also, we had putrid lapse rates that day. A ton of shear, but not a lot of instability. You know what that means in SNE.

[OceanStWx]

This kind of event has so much potential in New England for main reason that you rotate the entire flow pattern and create something more akin to what happens in the Midwest.

Around here you typically have much more stable air to the southeast, the complete opposite of central CONUS severe weather. Northwest flow allows stable air to be in the right top quadrant relative to the storms. Check out the line of cumulus marking the surface based instability. Also the forecast for theta-e later today. That marks the warm front, and storm motion is parallel to this. So this is the exact orientation you need for long tracked supercellular storms.

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, we had putrid lapse rates that day. A ton of shear, but not a lot of instability. You know what that means in SNE.

The same can be said anywhere really when it comes to lapse rates. There was a setup in the midwest a few months back which was flagged with higher tornado probabilities and potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes but that never materialized...and it was a setup in which they had relatively weak lapse rates. It truly is hard to get a full fledged higher end severe weather outbreak without the present of steep lapse rates. 

The lapse rates here that day were horrible...but I recall they weren't modeled to be as bad as what actually transpired. 

[Chrisrotary12]

57 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Two long tracked supercells that produced swaths of wind damage. Sadly for some, no tornadoes.

About as useless as today’s event then. An EF3 will probably rip up a few million trees and no one will know.