Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[CAPE]

On 8/23/2026 at 12:51 PM, GaWx said:

 

 Thanks for posting these. I see these are based on just one run, 8/22/26 at 0Z, as opposed to being based on a mean of multiple runs. To compare, the 3 day/12 run means on Tropical Tidbits and even the 10 day/40 run means directly from the CFSv2 (which I’ve posted here), are of limited value, especially considering how jumpy they often are from one run to the next due to essentially no forecasting value that far out.

 So, this X-post being based on just one run is essentially of no value and was likely chosen by whoever that X-poster is due to how cold it is late in the winter.

 For example, here are the last two single runs from WxBell for Feb ‘27:

6Z 8/23/26: cold in E, warm in W

 

0Z 8/23/26: not surprisingly nearly the exact opposite!

 Here’s that x-post’s Feb. ‘27 map again:

 To help emphasize how laughably frigid this post’s Feb CFSv2 map is in the E US, check out how much colder it is vs the record coldest (in degrees F):

-DC ~20 vs coldest 24.6 (1934)

-Richmond ~22 vs coldest 28.2 (1934)

-Chattanooga ~19 vs coldest 33.8 (1958)

-Atlanta ~25F vs coldest 34.4 (1895)

Cities’ coldest from here:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate

@Terpeast

Yeah the WB single run CFS is completely useless. I used to mention it whenever someone posted it but it keeps happening so I give up lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah the WB singe run CFS is completely useless. I used to mention it whenever someone posted it but it keeps happening so I give up lol.

It runs 4 times a day, 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. So when you post last 12 runs, you are only posting 3-days. Like I said I was somewhat following it the last 2 years and they had 1 run of -38F for the month of Dec in the NW, US both 2024 and 2025. Here's what happened lol

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[Stormchaserchuck1]

Something to consider as models show nearly a 6000dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands in 4-5 days, here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:

[mitchnick]

22 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something to consider as models show nearly a 6000dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands in 4-5 days, here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:

I luv ya' Chuck, but come on. A few days of weather the end of August/early September really can't be tied to the upcoming winter. Coincidence? ...at best, but nothing more. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I luv ya' Chuck, but come on. A few days of weather the end of August/early September really can't be tied to the upcoming winter. Coincidence? ...at best, but nothing more. 

We haven't had a +PNA month in 7 months. Recent winters have skewed very ridgey in the N. Pacific relative to ENSO. I mean I don't think this winter will have a la nina pattern but I would definitely not expect a N. Pacific vortex like 97-98, 82-83, 15-16 in the mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I luv ya' Chuck, but come on. A few days of weather the end of August/early September really can't be tied to the upcoming winter. Coincidence? ...at best, but nothing more. 

My position is in between both of you....I don't think it's merely a coincidence, as there are plenty of signs that El Nino has not yet coupled with the mid latitudes throughout the N Hem....however, Chuck seems more resigned to the fact that that won't change for winter than I am.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We haven't had a +PNA month in 7 months. Recent winters have skewed very ridgey in the N. Pacific relative to ENSO. I mean I don't think this winter will have a la nina pattern but I would definitely not expect a N. Pacific vortex like 97-98, 82-83, 15-16 in the mean. 

I think 15-16 is possible...97 and 82 is unlikely. That being said, I think in the absence of a N Pac vortex, assuming that is the case, the range of potential outcomes this winter would expand because we maybe less prone to an overwhelming Pac jet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/23/2026 at 2:22 PM, CAPE said:

Yeah the WB single run CFS is completely useless. I used to mention it whenever someone posted it but it keeps happening so I give up lol.

Nothing wrong with posting data....I just  mentioned it looks just like 2023. Is that likely? Not IMO, but possible if Chuck is right about the N Pacific.

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My position is in between both of you....I don't think it's merely a coincidence, as there are plenty of signs that El Nino has not yet coupled with the mid latitudes throughout the N Hem....however, Chuck seems more resigned to the fact that that won't change for winter than I am.

Actually, I'm  with you. I get Chuck's position as he's expressed his concern several times over the the main Enso thread. But I just think it's a little early to be concerned about it. We need to see how the Niño develops and when it starts to fade, then we can worry...and with the best of them too! Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

July and August near records for US warmth. Completely different from El Nino analogs, which are typically cool. 

All El Nino minus all La Nina analogs for August before this year

[soadforecasterx]

Maybe we get the moisture from the El Nino but the cold and blocking from the La Nina. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Actually, I'm  with you. I get Chuck's position as he's expressed his concern several times over the the main Enso thread. But I just think it's a little early to be concerned about it. We need to see how the Niño develops and when it starts to fade, then we can worry...and with the best of them too! Lol

The El Nino is currently +2.4c, which is higher than any La Nina ever on record at any time of year. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The El Nino is currently +2.4c, which is higher than any La Nina ever on record at any time of year. 

This doesn't seem to make much sense. Maybe reword it?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This doesn't seem to make much sense. Maybe reword it?

El Nino is higher than any other El Nino at this time by +17%

There has never been a La Nina that has made it to -2.4c. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino is higher than any other El Nino at this time by +17%

There has never been a La Nina that has made it to -2.4c. 

Thanks. Maybe not a valid comparison though, particularly in recent times, given the warming oceans. Seems logical it would be more difficult to achieve anomalous cold of the same magnitude during a La Nina. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

47 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Thanks. Maybe not a valid comparison though, particularly in recent times, given the warming oceans. Seems logical it would be more difficult to achieve anomalous cold of the same magnitude during a La Nina. 

My point is that if mitchnick is saying the El Nino is not yet effecting the pattern, then you can say that no La Nina has effected the pattern ever. 

[frd]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^+QBO/east-based El Nino/-PDO history says could be quite warm in Dec. That type of H5 over Greenland and Alaska would be a record-breaking warm pattern in the NE in this day and age if it verifies (we haven't actually seen that pattern much in the cold season over the past few years, it's a 01-02 pattern). 

[MillvilleWx]

59 minutes ago, frd said:

I said it a while ago, but in a stronger Nino, December is usually not a month to look for snow. Tends to be warmer than normal. Can still happen, but it's not the right time for it. Jan-Early March are your best bets, especially mid-Jan thru mid-Feb. 

[frd]

14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I said it a while ago, but in a stronger Nino, December is usually not a month to look for snow. Tends to be warmer than normal. Can still happen, but it's not the right time for it. Jan-Early March are your best bets, especially mid-Jan thru mid-Feb. 

Exactly, for a Nina Dec usually rocks, but this year with the Nino expecting warmer than normal temps. I like mid Jan to mid Feb as well. Have to see what the signs are as we enter late Fall regarding the potential for HL blocking over NA.,and what the source regions look like as well.    

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My point is that if mitchnick is saying the El Nino is not yet effecting the pattern, then you can say that no La Nina has effected the pattern ever. 

I not talking about effects now. I'm talking about how things go come October  and November which would give a better clue than a few days at the end of August/early September.  That was the original subject of my post.

[mitchnick]

45 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I said it a while ago, but in a stronger Nino, December is usually not a month to look for snow. Tends to be warmer than normal. Can still happen, but it's not the right time for it. Jan-Early March are your best bets, especially mid-Jan thru mid-Feb. 

I'd consider a rain changing to a minor snow accumulation this December a victory. And that's coming from an eternal optimist. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I not talking about effects now. I'm talking about how things go come October  and November which would give a better clue than a few days at the end of August/early September.  That was the original subject of my post.

The El Nino is just stagnant over the Tropics right now? The cold season has much higher effects, but you typically do see some things now, or whenever a +2.4c ENSO event is happening, warm or cold season. That we've seen 7-0 N. Pacific ridges vs troughs since the El Nino officially began is somewhat of a leading indicator.. instead of your usual -120dm winter n. pacific anomaly, I'd say it's more likely to be around -30dm for the DJFM mean. Pacific vs Atlantic hurricane season has been El Nino so far. 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The El Nino is just stagnant over the Tropics right now? The cold season has much higher effects, but you typically do see some things now, or whenever a +2.4c ENSO event is happening, warm or cold season. That we've seen 7-0 N. Pacific ridges vs troughs since the El Nino officially began is somewhat of a leading indicator.. instead of your usual -120dm winter n. pacific anomaly, I'd say it's more likely to be around -30dm for the DJFM mean. Pacific vs Atlantic hurricane season has been El Nino so far. 

The effects are more in the southern hemisphere now. After mid-fall or so, it’ll switch over to the northern hemisphere and thats when we should start seeing some typical nino characteristics like a STJ. Aug and early sept are almost irrelevant, except for the tropics. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The effects are more in the southern hemisphere now. After mid-fall or so, it’ll switch over to the northern hemisphere and thats when we should start seeing some typical nino characteristics like a STJ. Aug and early sept are almost irrelevant, except for the tropics. 

May and August have o-k N Pacific correlations. They were both opposite this year. 3 months US averaged below average temps for El Nino warm season. All 3 months were above average. It's not the strongest, but there are pattern effects that aren't happening since the El Nino developed in April. I agree that it's 3-4x more relevant starting in like Oct-Nov. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

55 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

After mid-fall or so

First it was mid/late summer, then it was September, now it’s mid-late fall. What’s with the can kicking?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Kind of strange to think a +2.4c El Nino has no effect on the N. Pacific and N. America because it isn't winter. We haven't had a strong-prolonged N. Pacific trough in 11 years.. since Winter 15-16. That trend has carried so far in 2026. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^+QBO/east-based El Nino/-PDO history says could be quite warm in Dec. That type of H5 over Greenland and Alaska would be a record-breaking warm pattern in the NE in this day and age if it verifies (we haven't actually seen that pattern much in the cold season over the past few years, it's a 01-02 pattern). 

Ooof, that was a horrid winter for snow lovers.

[Terpeast]

10 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

First it was mid/late summer, then it was September, now it’s mid-late fall. What’s with the can kicking?

Oh are we really doing this? Ok, let’s split hairs.

In another post, I said Sept-Nov is when we should see effects. So what is “mid-fall”? Fall is SON, Winter is DJF. In the middle of SON is October. Where’s the can kick?

 

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of strange to think a +2.4c El Nino has no effect on the N. Pacific and N. America because it isn't winter. We haven't had a strong-prolonged N. Pacific trough in 11 years.. since Winter 15-16. That trend has carried so far in 2026. 

I think the easiest answer is the marine heat wave off japan. +5-8c anoms are going to have an effect there. But once the NH cools, that will get chipped away slowly but surely. Like it did the last couple of years, it may take a few months but we have time