Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, something interesting is the CPC NAO index has run significantly higher in the wintertime than what the 500mb composite has looked like. We've had all but 1 +NAO Winters since 10-11. And that one was -0.21. 

Yea, cpc uses 1000mb surface pressure patterns for its numerical index calc which throws me off at times too because we always look at 500mb height progs. Surface pressure does correlate to 500mb but things get muddy in that dept. Some of which is due to domain space size. I dont worry too much about the numerical index when 500mb looks tasty lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It certainly feels like Fall the past 2 days. 60s in the evening both times. It seems like since 2024 every Summer has been hot in the beginning then cool at the end. 

Another -400dm low over the Arctic today. Again, every May-Sept has had that pattern 60-90N: 2024, 2025, 2026. 

July-Aug the wettest months of the year again, matching the 2017-2025 pattern. 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It certainly feels like Fall the past 2 days. 60s in the evening both times. It seems like since 2024 every Summer has been hot in the beginning then cool at the end. 

Another -400dm low over the Arctic today. Again, every May-Sept has had that pattern 60-90N: 2024, 2025, 2026. 

July-Aug the wettest months of the year again, matching the 2017-2025 pattern. 

May was my wettest month. July and August have been dry.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

May was my wettest month. July and August have been dry.

My area has been extremely wet. I think in the eastern 40% of US it has matched the trend

Everyone is saying it's because of El Nino, I think it's a 10-year thing happening. The Fall will be a better indicator of how wet the Nino STJ is. 

[stormy]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My area has been extremely wet. I think in the eastern 40% of US it has matched the trend

Everyone is saying it's because of El Nino, I think it's a 10-year thing happening. The Fall will be a better indicator of how wet the Nino STJ is. 

Thanks Chuck!

During July in Augusta County,  I only received 62% of normal rainfall.   During August, I have received 66% of normal thru 8-20.

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My area has been extremely wet. I think in the eastern 40% of US it has matched the trend

Everyone is saying it's because of El Nino, I think it's a 10-year thing happening. The Fall will be a better indicator of how wet the Nino STJ is. 

Yes its too early to attribute warm season patterns to el nino, the coupling shows up better in the fall as the NH cools

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yes its too early to attribute warm season patterns to el nino, the coupling shows up better in the fall as the NH cools

Now did I understand correctly that developing niño summers have more severe weather?

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now did I understand correctly that developing niño summers have more severe weather?

I’m not sure, but I’ve always thought that el ninos have more influence on summers the following year after +enso develops. Could be wrong though

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yes its too early to attribute warm season patterns to el nino, the coupling shows up better in the fall as the NH cools

As a pure snow and cold weenie, what benchmarks should we be looking for and when should they start to emerge that would indicate this could be a legit winter?

[frd]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

As a pure snow and cold weenie, what benchmarks should we be looking for and when should they start to emerge that would indicate this could be a legit winter?

I would speculate - 

the PDO starting to rise in Sept and continuing to rise at a decent clip in Oct./Nov.

A weaker early season PV accompanied by a general cycle trend down with the AO all through the Fall. 

Above normal North American Snow extent through Sept to Dec.  

Signs that might indicate -NAO during the winter, I defer to Chuck on this one  

Watch the East based Nino regions, could overwhelm all 3 above items. 

 

 

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

I would speculate - 

the PDO starting to rise in Sept and continuing to rise at a decent clip in Oct./Nov.

A weaker early season PV accompanied by a general cycle trend down with the AO all through the Fall. 

Above normal North American Snow extent through Sept to Dec.  

Signs that might indicate -NAO during the winter, I defer to Chuck on this one  

Watch the East based Nino regions, could overwhelm all 3 above items. 

 

 

frd did a good job covering what to watch for.

Only thing I would add is the STJ. If we get a decent amount of coastal storms, and we’re AN in precipitation from Sept-Nov, that’s another sign. 

[Terpeast]

Also i wouldn’t be surprised to see an outrageously warm winter month, talking +10. I’m hoping that is December, willing to sacrifice that month for a better Jan-Feb

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Also i wouldn’t be surprised to see an outrageously warm winter month, talking +10. I’m hoping that is December, willing to sacrifice that month for a better Jan-Feb

The CFS has been remarkably consistent in suggesting Feb and March will hold the best chance for cold and a big winter storm. Dec h5 pattern looks very mild with PAC puke look, and Jan might trend colder towards the end. Not surprising that the latter part of winter has the best potential to deliver when the Nino may relax a bit/ max SST anomalies shift more westward. All fwiw ofc.

Pretty nice looks here. Should be just cold enough a time or two as the key features shift/ align in a favorable configuration.

 

[RIC_WX]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Also i wouldn’t be surprised to see an outrageously warm winter month, talking +10. I’m hoping that is December, willing to sacrifice that month for a better Jan-Feb

I have this feeling too, and if you think about it, the warmer December is the colder JFM can be and still the winter can average normal to slightly above overall.  I am almost ready to root for this as it feels close to a lock anyway.