2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity

[GaWx]

Naming a TC after a teletubby? 

[WxWatcher007]

Unfortunately, it looks like there won't be much if any more recon of Lala as recon is flying back to the mainland. 

The storm has struggled to organize a tight inner core, which makes it very hard for any kind of meaningful intensification to happen, but it's trying. We knew that would be an uphill battle. This morning's IR loop shows an attempt to wrap convection around the center, which is necessary for a faster pace of organization and intensification. 

 

Whether it truly gets there however, remains to be seen. Shear in the immediate vicinity doesn't look too bad at the moment. 

Lala remains embedded in a very dry environment, and although today it looks like it has more effectively fended off dry air intrusions, any ingestion of that dry air could disrupt an effort to organize and intensify. Marginal SSTs don't help either. 

All that said, the forecast looks on track. This is a higher end tropical storm, and with time and a somewhat conducive environment for organization and intensification a hurricane is certainly plausible. We're well within radar range now and can now watch for lower level organizational trends. 

Compared to this morning where there was a well defined but broad and ragged center, now we have what looks like a tightening inner core trying to form. Still, we don't have deep convection wrapping fully, but it's trying. 

Notice the wobble south too. As a chaser, once you get to this stage every wobble matters (even though you care about the long term movement still). It's still not a guarantee that we see an official landfall here, though impacts will be significant regardless. 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Seems like the center will pass well south of the big island,  but with elevation I’m sure some very strong winds will occur on land 

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If anyone’s followed models or honestly just looked at the system and avoided social media it’s been very apparent for days this will be an upper-tier TS or bottom line cat 1 hurricane when it makes its closest approach. Based on what I’ve seen it likely skirts just south of the big island. Nothing shocking or surprising has happened this system has largely followed the forecast, though I agree at present it would seem to be unlikely this reaches hurricane intensity before its closest approach 

Yes, i agree. and yes, avoid social media w/ all its hype and gloom and doom rhetoric!

Looking at radar, you'd think that Lala is easily a min hurricane, but it shows how things can be misleading.  A less apparent mitigating factor is that Lala started out as a monsoonal system, so it already had a broad pressure field and center.  Monsoonal TCs generally do not tighten up much, esp. for its inner core, so I think that why you have a clear eye feature on radar, but the winds are less than what you would expect.

The eye is now apparent on IR, but it is very ragged and the convection is not smoothly banded around it.  That indicates shear and dry air still present.  Recon not since last night, so the one en route now will be interesting, but Doppler velocities suggest little change through 15z.

The overall point I was conveying from the start is that Lala is not you typical TC, and had more against it than for from the start, so odds of RI were low and it intensity curve would not be like many TC evolution we see for one moving W in the deep tropics.  These kind of details count.  I see far too many "social-meteorologists" and hype-masters gloss over things and treat all TCs the same as if it is "one-size fits all."  Nothing could be further from the truth!  For example, I bet there are some out there that are saying, "radar shows a clear eye, and now there is an eye on satellite, why isn't it upgraded to a hurricane?!"  And yes, I can see why.  Say Lala was far at sea.  In the absence of in situ recon data, going by satellite estimates alone, when an eye is present, even if ragged, that usually mean min hurricane strength (Dvorak Technique says this).  But again, one needs to examine all data available and the details for a proper assessment.  

My hope contributing to this forum is point out the finer details of TCs and their nuances/idiosyncrasies b/c the variance from TC to TC can be very large.
 

[Chinook]

Hurricane Lala (65kt) at 6:30PM Aug 15

Quote

Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
Lala's radar and satellite presentation has improved since earlier
this morning, including a ragged eye appearing in visible and
infrared satellite images. The Dvorak intensity estimate from WFO
Honolulu increased to T4.0/65 kt at 1800 UTC, and radar data from
the South Point, Hawaii, site have been showing patches of 
winds around 70 kt at 8,000 to 10,000 ft to the northeast of 
the center. Based on this data, Lala was upgraded to a hurricane on 
the 9 AM HST (1900 UTC) Tropical Cyclone Update, and the initial 
intensity is still estimated to be 65 kt.

[WxWatcher007]

G140 reported at Mauna Kea Summit!!

Likely to be a close miss with regard to official landfall for the big island but some significant impacts showing up on damage reports across Hawaii. 

[Diggiebot]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

G140 reported at Mauna Kea Summit!!

Likely to be a close miss with regard to official landfall for the big island but some significant impacts showing up on damage reports across Hawaii. 

Missing landfall by inches is worse. The big island is square in the right front quad and not much weakening happens. 

[WxWatcher007]

58 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Missing landfall by inches is worse. The big island is square in the right front quad and not much weakening happens. 

I’m a sucker for center passes but you are right. The RFQ is hitting dead on. It’s going to be a rough ride for them. 

[mob1]

Not too shabby considering how far that is from the center (maybe it's gradient induced)

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Not too shabby considering how far that is from the center (maybe it's gradient induced)

Southern end of the island is ganna get continuous eye wall for the whole storm 

[Windspeed]

Crazy total rain accumulations have occurred over the eastward facing volcanic slopes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa massifs. Not unexpected, but hopefully more populated residential areas have avoided high water this morning.

[Windspeed]

Radar coverage for the eastern half of the island is down at present. Unfortunately, a strong backside circulation feeder band with enhanced southerly flow is aligned and curving upslope right over the Big Island. Radar would most likely show an ongoing firehouse if it were still operational. You will notice the lightning showing where the deepest cells are likely training under the deepest convection.

[Windspeed]

A PDS is currently out for the ongoing flooding emergency:

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NAALEHU IN KAU DISTRICT

FFWHFO

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
The island of Hawaii in Hawaii County

* Until 100 AM HST.

* At 953 PM HST, local law enforcement reported 2 homes swept away due to intense rainfall over Naalehu. Rain was falling at a rate of 3 to 5 inches per hour. Flash flooding is ongoing with additional heavy rain bands expected over the next several hours

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Naalehu in Kau District. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Wood Valley, Pahala, Punaluu Beach, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, Kawa Flats, Volcano, Naalehu, Glenwood, Hawaiian Ocean View, Mountain View and Waiohinu.

[olafminesaw]

Insane range of totals around the lsland