Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Wednesday

Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central
   Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding
   westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level
   impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this
   week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the
   end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe
   thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing
   the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly
   during the middle of the week. 

   ...Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic...
   Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower
   Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance
   consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough
   overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a
   convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with
   appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted
   that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may
   stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms
   becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the 
   exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be
   adjusted accordingly.

   Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will
   traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the
   Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in
   place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with
   the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in
   future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic
   zones occurs.

   Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level
   impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy,
   impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support
   at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests
   that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a
   potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding
   days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated
   by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically
   pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva
   may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

[Yardstickgozinya]

And Thursday. 

 

[mahantango#1]

11 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

And Thursday. 

 

Wow 3 days in a row of possible severe weather.

[Yardstickgozinya]

19 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wow 3 days in a row of possible severe weather.

 I'm pretty sure that you already knew that was likely this week. I apologize if i'm stepping on your toes. Maybe i'm overthinking things.

[Yardstickgozinya]

40 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wow 3 days in a row of possible severe weather.

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I want to clarify that the Count is directed at myself. I found some wild s*** in the back of my medicine cabinet last night and i'm still having a good time.  

[ChescoWx]

We turn warmer and more humid today through much of the upcoming week with shower and thunderstorm chances each day. The best chances of any rain would be later this evening and again on Wednesday into Thursday. Our warmest day looks to be Tuesday with some lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We turn much cooler and drier for Labor Day Weekend.

[ChescoWx]

From April through Yesterday most locations are not too far from normal rainfall for the spring and summer to date.

[canderson]

Back into the 90s all week. Mid to upper for some of it. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 62 last night and 56 Friday night. Good stuff. Now we heat up again for a bit. 

[mahantango#1]

24 minutes ago, canderson said:

Back into the 90s all week. Mid to upper for some of it. 

[Superstorm]

Back into the 90s all week. Mid to upper for some of it. 

Hopefully with clouds and shower chances, most heat will be kept at bay (south of M/D).

Depends on where boundary sets up. West of river has best chances of 90+.


.

[mahantango#1]

3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 I'm pretty sure that you already knew that was likely this week. I apologize if i'm stepping on your toes. Maybe i'm overthinking things.

Let's see if it come to fruition. 

[Superstorm]

Nice storm in Lanco.


.

[Yardstickgozinya]

 I just got home from quite another adventurous trip down to Colombia area. It's night's like this that truly make me feel alive. I sat on the river bank down there, listening to thunder and watching lightning with my son's girlfriend for hours before I decided we needed to wrap it up. Unfortunately, I waited a little too long for the comfort of my son's girlfriend, but once she felt safe all she could talk about was her catfish. That said, I hope everything's alright for the areas that have been sitting under these Storms. I've had four of my last five catfishing trips in Lancaster, cut short by thunderstorms. 

 

[mahantango#1]

 

US National Weather Service State College PA

 

 

CTP Warning Counts So Far in 2026

SEVERE: 292 warnings is most EVER in a calendar year

TORNADO: 30 warnings year-to-date ranks 4th behind 1996 (34), 2011 (40), and 1998 (58)

FLASH FLOOD: 80 warnings year-to-date ranks 4th behind 1995 (82), 1998 (105), and 1996 (246)

#PAwx

[pawatch]

68 degrees looks like a few showers on the way.

[ChescoWx]

Warm, humid with some showers possible for much of the week before we turn much cooler and clearer by the end of the work week and the start of Labor Day Weekend. The warmest day of the week looks to be tomorrow with highs well into the 80's. The best chance of rain will be tomorrow night into Wednesday.

[ChescoWx]

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

[Yardstickgozinya]

 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 311810
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
210 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Adjusted POP/Wx to better align with Day 2-4 SPC SLGT risk

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Late summer surge of heat and humidity brings multiday severe
thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat to kickoff September

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:

A series of mid level impulses tracking eastward along the
northern periphery of an expansive 500mb ridge will interact
with anomalous moisture/instability and strong WNW flow aloft
to promote a multiday severe storm and excessive rain risk
across portions of CPA Tuesday-Thursday. A surge of late summer
heat (max temps 80-90F range) with dewpoints in upper 60s to low
70s will result in a very moist boundary layer with impressive
MLCAPE values in the neighborhood of 2-3k J/kg given mid level
lapse rates around 7 C/km. Forecast soundings also show robust
deep layer/effective shear values and appreciably curved,
sizable low level hodographs. As such, a couple of supercells
will be possible. Severe wind and hail are the main threats,
though a tornado or two may also occur. On balance, the
environmental parameters are quite bullish for severe storm
potential. However, timing (time of day), speed, and location
of each mid level impulse will be key factors that could
modulate the bullish severe setup to some extent. Increasing
MUCAPE values late tonight through Tuesday morning suggest
storms/severe risk likely won`t be tied to the typical diurnal
cycle. The severe risk will shift to the south of CPA by
Friday, but an upper trough passage suggests some lingering
shower activity into the weekend.

The late summer heat is forecast to peak Tuesday and Wednesday
with very warm nights +10-20F above the historical average and
max heat indices approaching advisory levels/century mark
across parts of south central PA. The upper ridge is forecast to
retrograde by the end of the week which allows for increased
troughing and a return to more seasonal temperatures for early
September.