Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Wednesday

Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central
   Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding
   westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level
   impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this
   week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the
   end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe
   thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing
   the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly
   during the middle of the week. 

   ...Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic...
   Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower
   Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance
   consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough
   overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a
   convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with
   appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted
   that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may
   stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms
   becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the 
   exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be
   adjusted accordingly.

   Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will
   traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the
   Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in
   place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with
   the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in
   future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic
   zones occurs.

   Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level
   impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy,
   impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support
   at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests
   that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a
   potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding
   days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated
   by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically
   pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva
   may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

[Yardstickgozinya]

And Thursday. 

 

[mahantango#1]

11 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

And Thursday. 

 

Wow 3 days in a row of possible severe weather.

[Yardstickgozinya]

19 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wow 3 days in a row of possible severe weather.

 I'm pretty sure that you already knew that was likely this week. I apologize if i'm stepping on your toes. Maybe i'm overthinking things.

[Yardstickgozinya]

40 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wow 3 days in a row of possible severe weather.

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I want to clarify that the Count is directed at myself. I found some wild s*** in the back of my medicine cabinet last night and i'm still having a good time.