E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion

[LVblizzard]

11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Meh heavy rain but that’s it. I will say the thunder got me out of my desk to check was going on though lol looks like LV is initiating now, probably kills their severe threat and might kill ours too to the south 

The HRRR has been adamant about this early activity and it still has severe storms around later. I don’t think it fully kills the severe threat…it does make it a little tougher though.

[LVblizzard]

Some clearing is showing up in southern PA and expanding ENE. Today is still game on from the Lehigh Valley southward.

[RedSky]

Yeah round one is non existent it's all on round #2

 

[Newman]

All of the parameters are solid across eastern PA right now and will probably keep improving through the afternoon. But, just like Saturday, there just seems to be too much going on. Will see if that activity in western PA is able to tap into the favorable environment in eastern PA or not, the cloud coverage is really suppressing low level lapse rates rn. Which is ironic because mid level lapse rates, which are usually paltry, are great.

[enpawx_observer]

83/73.

Sun just starting to peek through a little bit, but still a pretty good cloud deck here.

[Newman]

"The leading edge of a 50 knot mid-level jet (centered around 5-6km) has been sampled by the CCX VWP within the last half an hour. As this overspreads the warm sector, shear will be in place for storm organization,  including supercells. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but  some large hail and a few tornadoes will also be possible. 

The greatest threat will be across southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey, where the greater instability is in place. However, as the warm front lifts northeastward, the threat could extend into southeast New York and Connecticut this afternoon."

[The Iceman]

The NJ Governor just closed the state at 2 PM, I guess this is going to be bad 

[Newman]

Tornado warnings popping off in NE PA. Supercell trying to develop in Berks right now

[The Iceman]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Tornado warnings popping off in NE PA. Supercell trying to develop in Berks right now

The cell in NW Jersey has a nice couplet on it right now. Another cell popping in burl co going into a good environment, debating crossing the river and intercepting

[WxUnit]

Tornado watch out for the area, goes until 9pm. 40% Tornado, 40% hail, 70% wind probabilities.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Tornado Watches up for the area (plus a TOR in north Jersey) -

Quote

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

TORNADO WATCH 507 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-071-075-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-
107-115-127-131-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0507.260721T1805Z-260722T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS                BUCKS               CARBON
CHESTER              DELAWARE            LACKAWANNA
LANCASTER            LEBANON             LEHIGH
LUZERNE              MONROE              MONTGOMERY
NORTHAMPTON          PHILADELPHIA        PIKE
SCHUYLKILL           SUSQUEHANNA         WAYNE
WYOMING
$$

 

Quote

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

TORNADO WATCH 507 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0507.260721T1805Z-260722T0100Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BERGEN              BURLINGTON
CAMDEN               CAPE MAY            CUMBERLAND
ESSEX                GLOUCESTER          HUDSON
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             MORRIS              OCEAN
PASSAIC              SALEM               SOMERSET
SUSSEX               UNION               WARREN
$$

 

Quote

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

TORNADO WATCH 507 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC003-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0507.260721T1805Z-260722T0100Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

NEW CASTLE
$$

 

 

[Violentweatherfan]

Insert here “Well that escalated rather quickly “

[LVblizzard]

Figures…the one day my car is in the shop is the one that has tornadic supercells everywhere. Would have loved to chase today.

[BBasile]

3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Figures…the one day my car is in the shop is the one that has tornadic supercells everywhere. Would have loved to chase today.

Used to try to chase around these parts.  Breaking the speed limit would just end up with me watching the storms run away.  Could sometimes get it right by picking an area I thought might be good.  Now, I stay put and just send up the drone.  lol.  Population density is too much.  

[BBasile]

Have some partial sun and blue skies here.  The atmosphere is juicy. Maybe I'll get more than a short downpour and 0.3" this time?  

[LVblizzard]

6 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Used to try to chase around these parts.  Breaking the speed limit would just end up with me watching the storms run away.  Could sometimes get it right by picking an area I thought might be good.  Now, I stay put and just send up the drone.  lol.  Population density is too much.  

Yeah this is a tough area to chase in. Might not matter though…that little supercell is making a beeline directly towards me. Hearing lots of distant thunder. If it does try to tornado it’ll happen very close to my house, likely just south.

[RedSky]

A gully washer something that has been near impossible this year although brief

 

 

[The Iceman]

Stuff in SE PA having a tough time getting going. 

[RedSky]

.80" in ten minutes  lol one fast tiny shower 

[BBasile]

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Stuff in SE PA having a tough time getting going. 

Have some popcorn to the SW now.  

[RedSky]

Radar is sparse with all this juice and an excellent trigger what is going on

[The Iceman]

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Radar is sparse with all this juice and an excellent trigger what is going on

My guess is the Berks cell and and the supe to the SW are causing interference… as is though you and I are going to split the upright 

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

My guess is the Berks cell and and the supe to the SW are causing interference… as is though you and I are going to split the upright 

I got my needed rain finally no need to sweat receiving the later action

 

[enpawx_observer]

Looks like some rotation out by West Chester

[Albedoman]

Less than .50 in western lehigh county- no drought buster thats for sure. Btween outflow boundaries-- looks like crap the rest of the day.  The outflow boundaries from this individual cells to the south and north are just crushing redevelopmnet or training t- storms in the LV.  I think we are done for the day now

[The Iceman]

10 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Less than .50 in western lehigh county- no drought buster thats for sure. Btween outflow boundaries-- looks like crap the rest of the day.  The outflow boundaries from this individual cells to the south and north are just crushing redevelopmnet or training t- storms in the LV.  I think we are done for the day now

Lower bucks and montco have gotten literally nothing… be thankful for .5”… 

[Violentweatherfan]

Rain train looks to be rolling in now for SEPA

[Violentweatherfan]

6 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Lower bucks and montco have gotten literally nothing… be thankful for .5”… 

That cell early afternoon had about a half inch in it

[RedSky]

Another micro shower

After this it does not look good for anything significant to the west

[The Iceman]

28 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

That cell early afternoon had about a half inch in it

Not even close near me. .1” tops. Lasted 5 mins