May 16th-May 20th Severe Weather

[MazooWeather]

 

Gonna be a long couple of days, Monday looks particularly like it has a lot of chances for long track tornadoes.

[cyclone77]

MSP area is gonna get smacked pretty hard tomorrow evening.  

[sbnwx85]

00z 3k NAM has a very impressive area of ingredients coming together in Northern Indiana and immediately surrounding areas for Monday afternoon. Nice sounding in South Bend.

The HRRR much less impressive therefore I’m not showing it 

[sbnwx85]

And it’s gone. Realistic hope is to get some action as the boundary reignites just to my west in the early afternoon. 

[frostfern]

There’s a pretty good conditional risk for any cells that pop up near the warm front over central Lower Michigan the next few hours.  A few cells already trying to go. 

[frostfern]

Kind of ominous reminds me of the Gaylord 2022 setup, but a little more south.  It all depends on whether something can fire far enough south to latch onto the warm front.  Best forcing is too far north, but it only takes one cell.

[cyclone77]

On 5/16/2026 at 9:09 PM, cyclone77 said:

MSP area is gonna get smacked pretty hard tomorrow evening.  

Or not lol.

[nwohweather]

Really rooting for severe weather around 4 PM on Tuesday. Golf league in 40 mph winds is less than ideal

[hawkeye_wx]

Models are really crapping this line out as it moves into eastern Iowa later tonight.  Models are also driving tonight's line well south through Missouri, which then leads to everything on Monday developing and staying down there.  This might end up being a big dud of a weekend for areas around here.

[cyclone77]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are really crapping this line out as it moves into eastern Iowa later tonight.  Models are also driving tonight's line well south through Missouri, which then leads to everything on Monday developing and staying down there.  This might end up being a big dud of a weekend for areas around here.

Yeah just a bad overall setup for our areas.  Several days of action in the Missouri Valley, and then it skips over and impacts areas east for Tuesday.