May 16th-May 20th Severe Weather

[MazooWeather]

 

Gonna be a long couple of days, Monday looks particularly like it has a lot of chances for long track tornadoes.

[cyclone77]

MSP area is gonna get smacked pretty hard tomorrow evening.  

[sbnwx85]

00z 3k NAM has a very impressive area of ingredients coming together in Northern Indiana and immediately surrounding areas for Monday afternoon. Nice sounding in South Bend.

The HRRR much less impressive therefore I’m not showing it 

[sbnwx85]

And it’s gone. Realistic hope is to get some action as the boundary reignites just to my west in the early afternoon. 

[frostfern]

There’s a pretty good conditional risk for any cells that pop up near the warm front over central Lower Michigan the next few hours.  A few cells already trying to go. 

[frostfern]

Kind of ominous reminds me of the Gaylord 2022 setup, but a little more south.  It all depends on whether something can fire far enough south to latch onto the warm front.  Best forcing is too far north, but it only takes one cell.