May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[kdxken]

Not sure where AI is taking us , but it sure is easier to just ask a question than fiddling around with the NOWdata interface. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

So much hype so much Stein 

[powderfreak]

Looks like a nice day.

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin seems way too optimistic about everything.

He’s drunk! 

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like a nice day.

I’ll enjoy the 40s in Tolland 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

He’s drunk! 

Quite possible 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Quite possible 

Lmao…I just caught up…what a bunch of shit!  He’s trying so hard for summer…but it ain’t nowhere around.  Yes..maybe the highest peeks see snow on Saturday. Other than that it’s a crap fest of 40’s and 50’s Saturday.  If this was December 28th, Kev would be trying for 2-4” here .   Can we just be reasonable?  Showers and 50-55 on Saturday in SNE.  Which is garbage. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like a cold day, too warm for snow below 1500

[vortex95]

23 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve seen worse, but I’m not sure next week is all that great either, at least the first half anyways. We might get pretty warm end of the week.

The 18z GFS is the ultimate wheel of misfortune.  The entire week into next weekend is ruined for Scott!  Well, at least his lawn will be happy.  And we do need the rain.  Drought bust-A!!??

[CoastalWx]

Even the ensembles hint at cut off potential after it warms up later next week. With the ridge pushing west into the plains again it does open the potential up. Still early for deep summer pattern. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even the ensembles hint at cut off potential after it warms up later next week. With the ridge pushing west into the plains again it does open the potential up. Still early for deep summer pattern. 

The potential for what?  Pushing the ridge into the plains means not to much warmth here I’d imagine…no? 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Went XC Skiing May 18, 2002... had 2-4" in the Albany area.  Think the airport officially was 2.2".  The hilltowns above 1,000ft had 4-6".

Prattsville NY 8" for the highest for May 18, 2002.

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Total cancel on gfs. Hope it’s wrong.

We do need the rain.  Need to shut up local media acting like the drought is end of days.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The potential for what?  Pushing the ridge into the plains means not to much warmth here I’d imagine…no? 

When it pushes west, there is usually troughing here and the wavelengths aren’t yet mature meaning have not broadened like they do in the summer when temp gradients aren’t significant. So with shorter wavelengths you can risk cutoffs developing. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, vortex95 said:

We do need the rain.  Need to shut up local media acting like the drought is end of days.

 

Hopefully we float away and shut the talk up. 

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even the ensembles hint at cut off potential after it warms up later next week. With the ridge pushing west into the plains again it does open the potential up. Still early for deep summer pattern. 

Sometimes it does not truly break into a solid summer pattern until July 4th!  But you seem surprised what is going on now.  It happens....

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Sometimes it does not truly break into a solid summer pattern until July 4th!  But you seem surprised what is going on now.  It happens....

Agreed. And I’m no MET. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When it pushes west, there is usually troughing here and the wavelengths aren’t yet mature meaning have not broadened like they do in the summer when temp gradients aren’t significant. So with shorter wavelengths you can risk cutoffs developing. 

Yup…so we F’d if that indeed happens.  2020 sucked until very late June, early July..then it snapped. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Sometimes it does not truly break into a solid summer pattern until July 4th!  But you seem surprised what is going on now.  It happens....

I’m not surprised. I’m well aware they can happen….especially in a burgeoning Nino. I’d rather get some severe weather. Bring back that 90s and 00s.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not surprised. I’m well aware they can happen….especially in a burgeoning Nino. I’d rather get some severe weather. Bring back that 90s and 00s.

Maybe we can replicate/repeat some of that?  Bring on a Derecho! 

[powderfreak]

50F and breezy this evening.

Sort of an early October vibe but with twilight until 9:30pm.

[CoastalWx]

Nam gone wild for Brian 

[CoastalWx]

It gone wild period lol. 

[vortex95]

One thing that seems apparent as we get closer to the Fri-Sat event.  Models are ever so slightly trending colder and deeper w/ the sfc low.  We now have 1000-500 thk bottoming out very close to 534 NH/VT/MA and -1 C at 925 extended over parts of MA/CT/RI around 12z Sat on the GFS.  And now the 18z GFS and ECMWF suggest slight accumulation in n-ctnrl MA.  Of course precip intensity is an issue in SNE, but maybe not for far NE MA (18z ECMWF).

Sfc low now peaks at intensity 999 mb just E of BOS and as noted, significant winds ME coast to Cape Cod.  G50 kt psbl according to the HRRR.  Sustained 40 kt fcst just offshore from PWM.

I would not be surprised if there are isolated embedded tstms.  Also, model ptype does not show this, but what about IP?  Such cold 925 temps, a mix w/ IP into SNE is certainly psbl. 

So something to be reckoned w/ and the "surprise" factor is quite high in this case (i.e. snowfall in areas that do not expect it).  No, Scott, it won't be a Dec 9, 2005 "wild turkey surprise!"  LOL.

00z HRRR showing max of 27" at MWN.  Why not?  They had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event.  QPF supports it.

EDIT: Just saw the NAM.  It may not be so far out-to-lunch here, maybe right for the wrong reason, but as I said above the "surprise" factor here is very high IMHO given the borderline temps and strong dynamics.

[CoastalWx]

Some of the soundings are slamming the DGZ. Paste to 1500’ easily if that happens. East slopes of mtn ranges favored. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam gone wild for Brian 

Wonder how Phin fares.  The northeastern side of the Presidentials should be ripe for snow if the upper level low continues to dive like that.

The deep layer flow will be crushing those large scale eastern slopes.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wonder how Phin fares.  The northeastern side of the Presidentials should be ripe for snow if the upper level low continues to dive like that.

The deep layer flow will be crushing those large scale eastern slopes.

Interesting thing with this is that the cold doesn’t come from this ULL. Loop 925-850 temps. It rips in from a leftover ULL to the east. Just wild shit all around. 

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the soundings are slamming the DGZ. Paste to 1500’ easily if that happens. East slopes of mtn ranges favored. 

PT time???  LOL.  I recall how into you got w/  the Gulf Coast S+ last year.  You said something like, "this is some SERIOUS SH**!!!""

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Even the ensembles hint at cut off potential after it warms up later next week. With the ridge pushing west into the plains again it does open the potential up. Still early for deep summer pattern. 

Hopefully next Saturday can be a decent day at least. It’s our only shot at getting out of the house with the baby for a cookout lol

[dendrite]

lol