Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies 

I'm not saying I don't enjoy the different perspectives that you show us...but the Luzerne County Weather Authority?  Really?

My question from a few days ago still stands...how many weather blogs do you follow?

[Prismshine Productions]

I'm not saying I don't enjoy the different perspectives that you show us...but the Luzerne County Weather Authority?  Really?
My question from a few days ago still stands...how many weather blogs do you follow?

Mofo using the hr1000 forecast too

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

let's build that snowpack where we need it

Maybe all of NAMER can be the same temp all winter

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Maybe all of NAMER can be the same temp all winter

It almost looks like the temperature variation between Dec and Jan is in stasis ...  like constant straight across while the climate normal dips below.

[JACKASS]

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

Maybe all of NAMER can be the same temp all winter

40’s for everyone?

[cleetussnow]

Yallsnow.com

at least he says he will go back in march and grade his forecast.  My guess is he will bust high in the eastern 3rd of the US.  If anyone in NYC wouldn’t sign up for 24 inches at this stage, they’d have to get their head examined. NYC will be lucky to get 10.

[MJO812]

[leo2000]

 

Midwest Weather 3 hours ago

 ·

 

Another piece to the puzzle behind my high confidence in potential polar vortex impacts overpowering the strong El Niño pattern after the 20th of this month. We continue to see consistent signals for an extended period of negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) phases. The main thing currently fighting against this setup is the positive EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation), which is allowing milder Pacific air to influence the pattern. However, around the 20th, that is expected to trend negative as well, driven by the ongoing Stratospheric Warming Event. This would put all three major teleconnections in favorable phases for Arctic air to spill into the Midwest and Northeast. The image on the left shows a classic negative AO/NAO/EPO pattern associated with a disrupted polar vortex, while the image on the right highlights the negative NAO teleconnection. Interesting times ahead!

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[qg_omega]

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2117313687887171752?a=Zg5oH9FXThn1Pewn078&s=46

[yoda]

23 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

The last run will be 06 UTC tonight. 

OMD has said that they have not done studies on the RRFS / REFS sensitivity to CAD wedges, an area that the NAM excels in. Just to put the icing on top, OMD has pulled the freezing rain and sleet accumulation products from the feed because it sucked so bad.
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-048_Updated_RRFS_and_REFS_Implementation.aaf.pdf

NEW changes as of Oct 15, 2026
Updated to reflect adjustments to post-processing and product
availability within RRFS and REFS, primarily replacing a model-generated,
microphysics-based instantaneous precipitation type product with a
diagnosed thermodynamic-based precipitation type calculation, and also
removing accumulations of freezing rain and frozen rain (sleet) as output
products. These changes are in response to an over-forecasting of
freezing rain and under-forecasting of sleet within RRFS/REFS.

 

Don't know if this was mentioned in here already... but FYI from our forum re REFS/RRFS