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Winter 2026-2027 Speculation


40/70 Benchmark
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26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Even though this winter looks mild , im looking forward to the active STJ.

Yeah could be feast or famine. Hopefully a couple of big boys.  Could have like a +4 month but if you somehow sneak in a MECS or HECS it feels pretty good.  

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3 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Yeah that winter was a pretty bad ratter.  Hopefully not as bad this winter,  although with the projected strength of the Nino it's hard to be overly optimistic about things. 

Yeah I got a feeling this past winter was a Unicorn . Hope it's not too bad for severe n the deep south 

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On 7/1/2026 at 12:00 AM, codfishsnowman said:

Yeah I got a feeling this past winter was a Unicorn . Hope it's not too bad for severe n the deep south 

I do think we have changed to a better north Pacific pattern.....seem to have flipped from predominately +WPO for many years to more negative the past couple.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do think we have changed to a better north Pacific pattern.....seem to have flipped from predominately +WPO for many years to more negative the past couple.

If this sticks, which I feel like it may, we probably pull of a serviceable snowfall season next year....albeit mild.

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5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's hard to assess without Daily Climate Composites page, but right now it looks pretty negative. 

2aaa-A.png

July 15 is 50% of the way through, and I would say it's about ~-0.4 for DJFM NAO predictor. 

 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've come up with 6 Solar analogs and 5/6 averaged positive NAO in the seasonal mean (one was very slightly negative), 3/6 had at least one month between DJFM that averaged -NAO and it looks as though the strongest signal is March.

My money is on Chuck's formula shifting more positive from here on out, but I don't expect it to be an overwhelming signal, like last year.

 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll have a blog update within the next few days, followed by an ENSO update next week.

 

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