On the Rocks? March 5-6 mess

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

this event actually could be really good and not as minor as some think @HoarfrostHubb 

It’s got some work to do.  

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s got some work to do.  

yup but does have potential 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lets see if 0z we can double-team DIT 

He'd probably be all for it, but you'd probably have to lure Hunchie to participate with at least a ski pass or something...

Damage in certain parts of the anatomy, too...

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He'd probably be all for it, but you'd probably have to lure Hunchie to participate with at least a ski pass or something...

Damage in certain parts of the anatomy, too...

You making a map?   

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Huh?

Wasn’t this you saying you don’t want any more of this mess crap from this morning, and whatever falls tomorrow night? 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s got some work to do.  

How so?

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How so?

Temps.  Dynamics.   Hopefully it hits the juice a bit.     

[JACKASS]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Temps.  Dynamics.   Hopefully it hits the juice a bit.     

He's already done that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wasn’t this you saying you don’t want any more of this mess crap from this morning, and whatever falls tomorrow night? 

Yea...the commute sucked immensely...I guess I didn't follow your post.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You making a map?   

Just did.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Temps.  Dynamics.   Hopefully it hits the juice a bit.     

It’s an inch + primarily frozen . Snow for you ice others 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...the commute sucked immensely...I guess I didn't follow your post.

Ya, that’s all I meant…that you were adamant you don’t want anymore of this.
 

Let’s hope mid month can deliver a siggy event. Then we close the book. 

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr has an insane sleet snow line at the pike. Congrats Ray on the best event since Jan 2024.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s an inch + primarily frozen . Snow for you ice others 

Not trolling you here. But you have to advect this in on NE flow over Wor county. You’re going to need a good low level push to avoid that annoying 31.5° kinda-sorta-not really ZR. I’d feel better on decent accretion in the NW hills. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr has an insane sleet snow line at the pike. Congrats Ray on the best event since Jan 2024.

SREFs?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not trolling you here. But you have to advect this in on NE flow over Wor county. You’re going to need a good low level push to avoid that annoying 31.5° kinda-sorta-not really ZR. I’d feel better on decent accretion in the NW hills. 

My guess is 30.5-31.5 for most of it . Since it’s happening at night that will assist. I don’t know that it will be damaging at all . But I’ve lived here long enough to know there will be some decent accretion . Will this be ORH 2008.. no. But it has the chance to be pretty significant all things considered . I just hope the sleet line stays north of here .

[HoarfrostHubb]

HRRR, GFS, Euro are on crack. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr has an insane sleet snow line at the pike. Congrats Ray on the best event since Jan 2024.

There’s a pretty big area just sitting near 0C between 750-850 for many hours. Tough forecast. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Almost an inch of ZR near Charlton.   
although doesn’t that model do weird things with that? (Hardie HRRR HRRR)

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a pretty big area just sitting near 0C between 750-850 for many hours. Tough forecast. 

Probably intensity dependent too.

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Almost an inch of ZR near Charlton.   
although doesn’t that model do weird things with that? (Hardie HRRR HRRR)

Happens all the time, right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, that’s all I meant…that you were adamant you don’t want anymore of this.
 

Let’s hope mid month can deliver a siggy event. Then we close the book. 

If it's on a weekend, great.....but I'm taking Friday off...fu(k this shit. I work on the only major hill in Chelsea and it's awful in the wintry weather.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

HRRR, GFS, Euro are on crack. 

That’s a lot of models to be on crack…just saying. 

[CCHurricane]

00z HRRR says Boston sees moderate snow accumulations...not buying that at the moment.

Severe gradient just to the south, little to nothing down at the Braintree split. 

[wx2fish]

Nam going wild

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get play dough 

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM arrives at the party

[wx2fish]

3k not nearly as good as 12k. Handling of the convection upstream seems to be jumping around. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I wouldn’t get too hung up on models generating convection, and then using that as QPF distribution

Thing is that these general isenreopic  event types are better handled by the coarser smoothed solutions.  The meth models are going to spuriously trigger convection that is completely driven by chaos in the model and then that’s gonna turn around and fuck up all the works