Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

32 degrees this morning. Yesterday was brutal…10 degrees below normal with 32 mph wind gust and the wind was 9mph.

Normal temperature is supposed to be 45 degrees. The river is blowed out agin with high water. 
 I did get out Friday, the water Temperature was 42 degrees. Caught 1 fish 16.5” smallmouth.

This spring we’re getting a little bit of everything thrown at us.

 

Smallie fishings has made such a great comeback around here. Last year was epic. My son has really started on a heater this year. I never specifically targeted them until last year , and that was only when my buddy came home from Maui . Even though I never specifically targeted them ,  I used to routinely catch them while bait fishing  until around 2010ish then i rarely caught any until maybe about 4 or 5 years ago . By Last year I couldn't quit catching them while bait fishing. I caught and lost several absolute pigs last year, and over my life  because I only use 3 pound test while bait fishing.  

I

 

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

32 as I leave the house, may go lower. Happy Tuesday. 

32 here.

[ChescoWx]

This morning was the 100th below freezing low of the season here in East Nantmeal. Here in EN we average 97 such days. This is the most below freezing days since 2018-19 when we had 104 days. With records here since 2004 the most were 120 days in 2013-14 and the least only 72 days in 2015-16. We will see below normal temperatures today before we moderate to near normal (low 50's) tomorrow. Thursday we should warm well into the 60's before rain arrives by Friday morning. Much colder this weekend with nighttime lows again below freezing.

[pawatch]

4 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Smallie fishings has made such a great comeback around here. Last year was epic. My son has really started on a heater this year. I never specifically targeted them until last year , and that was only when my buddy came home from Maui . Even though I never specifically targeted them ,  I used to routinely catch them while bait fishing  until around 2010ish then i rarely caught any until maybe about 4 or 5 years ago . By Last year I couldn't quit catching them while bait fishing. I caught and lost several absolute pigs last year, and over my life  because I only use 3 pound test while bait fishing.  

I

 

Fishing for smallmouths for years on the river. Use 6lb and 12lb Fluorocarbon mostly .

Currently 44 degrees. Looks like some more rain Friday.

[Voyager]

Today's mid 30's feels SO much better than yesterday's mid 30's.

Sunshine changes everything.

[mahantango#1]

22 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Today's mid 30's feels SO much better than yesterday's mid 30's.

Sunshine changes everything.

Yes I'm out shoveling stone to put in my lane  came in now for lunch and I see the temperature is only 39. I thought it was warmer then that. That March sun is doing wonders. Today despite the temperature and virtually no wind is turning into a beautiful day. To me yesterday sucked with that cold and wind. Better days with heat and humidity are coming...sometime.

[Jns2183]

I’ve been looking back at the January 25, 2026 storm where MDT pulled in about 11" of snow. One of the most frustrating parts of that event was the "yo-yo" effect: we went from heavy snow to sleet, back to snow, and then back to sleet again.
We often talk about Dynamic Cooling (where heavy precip "drags" cold air down or uses melting/evaporation to zero out a warm layer), but in this storm, it felt like the heavy rates were also doing the opposite.
I’d love to get some thoughts on the Latent Heat Paradox from this event:
The Cooling Phase: At what point does the "Melting Tax" (energy absorbed to turn snow to rain) lose the battle to the Latent Heat of Fusion (energy released when rain freezes into sleet pellets)? It felt like the very act of creating sleet was releasing enough heat to "insulate" the warm nose aloft.
Altitude of Condensation: Did the transition back to snow mid-storm happen because the best lift/condensation shifted into the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), or did we just finally "exhaust" the warm nose through pure melting cooling?
The Disconnect: How do we reconcile the massive negative anomalies we saw on the 850mb maps with the persistent sleet pings we heard on the windows? Was this a case of the storm "cooking its own environment" through condensation warming at the mid-levels?
Would love to see some sounding analysis or thoughts on which latent process were dominant at which times

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Yardstickgozinya]

4 hours ago, pawatch said:

Fishing for smallmouths for years on the river. Use 6lb and 12lb Fluorocarbon mostly .

Currently 44 degrees. Looks like some more rain Friday.

I use 20lb braid, tied off to a 15lb Fluorocarbon leader when i'm targeting Smallies. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I’ve been looking back at the January 25, 2026 storm where MDT pulled in about 11" of snow. One of the most frustrating parts of that event was the "yo-yo" effect: we went from heavy snow to sleet, back to snow, and then back to sleet again.
We often talk about Dynamic Cooling (where heavy precip "drags" cold air down or uses melting/evaporation to zero out a warm layer), but in this storm, it felt like the heavy rates were also doing the opposite.
I’d love to get some thoughts on the Latent Heat Paradox from this event:
The Cooling Phase: At what point does the "Melting Tax" (energy absorbed to turn snow to rain) lose the battle to the Latent Heat of Fusion (energy released when rain freezes into sleet pellets)? It felt like the very act of creating sleet was releasing enough heat to "insulate" the warm nose aloft.
Altitude of Condensation: Did the transition back to snow mid-storm happen because the best lift/condensation shifted into the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), or did we just finally "exhaust" the warm nose through pure melting cooling?
The Disconnect: How do we reconcile the massive negative anomalies we saw on the 850mb maps with the persistent sleet pings we heard on the windows? Was this a case of the storm "cooking its own environment" through condensation warming at the mid-levels?
Would love to see some sounding analysis or thoughts on which latent process were dominant at which times

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

I certainly can't answer any of your questions about the science. What I can tell you, is thst you're absolutely correct In you're  observations. I actually brought this up in one of my posts during a storm this year.. I'm sure some people were quite confused by my statement, because of its goes against everything we've been taught and told. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

32 as I leave the house, may go lower. Happy Tuesday. 

My temp dropped an additional 3 degrees to 29 after I left the house this morning. 

[canderson]

Got bit by a mosquito today. I already hate summer. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

My temp dropped an additional 3 degrees to 29 after I left the house this morning. 

32.6 was my low. Currently a pleasant 62 inside and 43 outside.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I’ve been looking back at the January 25, 2026 storm where MDT pulled in about 11" of snow. One of the most frustrating parts of that event was the "yo-yo" effect: we went from heavy snow to sleet, back to snow, and then back to sleet again.
We often talk about Dynamic Cooling (where heavy precip "drags" cold air down or uses melting/evaporation to zero out a warm layer), but in this storm, it felt like the heavy rates were also doing the opposite.
I’d love to get some thoughts on the Latent Heat Paradox from this event:
The Cooling Phase: At what point does the "Melting Tax" (energy absorbed to turn snow to rain) lose the battle to the Latent Heat of Fusion (energy released when rain freezes into sleet pellets)? It felt like the very act of creating sleet was releasing enough heat to "insulate" the warm nose aloft.
Altitude of Condensation: Did the transition back to snow mid-storm happen because the best lift/condensation shifted into the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), or did we just finally "exhaust" the warm nose through pure melting cooling?
The Disconnect: How do we reconcile the massive negative anomalies we saw on the 850mb maps with the persistent sleet pings we heard on the windows? Was this a case of the storm "cooking its own environment" through condensation warming at the mid-levels?
Would love to see some sounding analysis or thoughts on which latent process were dominant at which times

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

The problem was a weak low traveled a bit too far for us into West Virginia. The secondary coastal low took its time developing & was very weak off of the DelMarVa. Despite the super cold Arctic air mass in place, there was a sneaky very small warm layer at 925 that did just enough to mix & flip us to sleet for awhile. If we did not mix or had minimal mix for an hour or two, that storm easily could have brought at least 18 inches of snow to the LSV.

This will be included as part of my Winter grade that will be issued on April 10th.

[Blizzard of 93]

56 minutes ago, canderson said:

Got bit by a mosquito today. I already hate summer. 

Bugs & humidity are the 2 main things that make me yearn for Fall every year.

[Yardstickgozinya]

https://www.tornadotalk.com/roundtop-ski-resort-pa-ef2-tornado-april-28-2011/

 

I was thinking about the last time I ever went to my basement.  The same cell that dropped the F2 at Ski round top tracked directly over my home back on april 28 2011 right around 6:25am. It was one hell of a storm and it's the first and only time water filled up my window wells and flooded my basement.

I just found this article, put together about it on tornado talk from 2021 With images and videos of the damage. 

[Jns2183]

here is a gif i made while working on a project that I think people might enjoy.  It shows weather station density in PA, NY, NJ from 1930's to present day.

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r4BDH1gMlgvlXgP7s1zNFQnUv9bTeEhS/view?usp=sharing

[Jns2183]

Some more fun things

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[mahantango#1]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 32. Looking like a chilly day for the neighborhood easter egg hunt on saturday. 

[mahantango#1]

27 this morning.

[ChescoWx]

We should be close to normal temperatures today (low to mid 50's) before a brief spike to well above normal for The Phillies Opener (upper 60's). Then back to below normal temperatures Friday through the weekend. Shower chances increase tomorrow night into Friday morning with a cold front.

[Jns2183]

We should be close to normal temperatures today (low to mid 50's) before a brief spike to well above normal for The Phillies Opener (upper 60's). Then back to below normal temperatures Friday through the weekend. Shower chances increase tomorrow night into Friday morning with a cold front.

What network are all the sites you post about on, co-op or cocorahs? When I was doing a spatial analysis of reporting stations I ran head first into Chester County, an enigma into itself with at ones being an incredibly densley observed county, yet parts are no better than the hinterlands of the north.

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

What network are all the sites you post about on, co-op or cocorahs? When I was doing a spatial analysis of reporting stations I ran head first into Chester County, an enigma into itself with at ones being an incredibly densley observed county, yet parts are no better than the hinterlands of the north. 
Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Hi Jns, Attached is a link to my website with the site descriptions. They are a combination of NWS COOP / CRN / AWOS / DEOS stations. No Cocorahs are included - but I may in the future.

Let me know if any other questions. Thanks! Paul

 https://chescowx.com/detailed-station-data/

[Yardstickgozinya]

I apologize if it's already been mentioned. Looks like many of us around the area could be racking up those rain totals tomorrow night.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Some hassles dealing with keeping my debris tarp, open today, but all in all, not a bad spring day and afternoon for putting in some work. 

[Voyager]

Over the past few days, my Saturday high went from 44 to 42 to 41 to now 39.

Ridiculous...

[mahantango#1]

43 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Over the past few days, my Saturday high went from 44 to 42 to 41 to now 39.

Ridiculous...

Yea I took notice too that the high on Saturday is getting lower. Hang in there warmer days are ahead. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Slight risk expanded into Western Pennsylvania Marginal Expanded well into central pennsylvania. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Yardstickgozinya]

Nws forecast discussion concerning this evening and tonight's thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain.

Highlight Changed Discussion --

755
FXUS61 KCTP 260823
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
423 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Leaning warmer with max temperature forecast today
* SPC severe t-storm and WPC excessive rain outlooks expanded

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms
this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of
the week into the last weekend of March

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and
thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down
for the end of the week into the last weekend of March

Partly to mostly cloudy and relatively mild start today as
south to southwest flow ramps up ahead of strong cold front
moving southeast from the Lower Great Lakes. We still expect
rain free conditions in most places to last into the afternoon
(through 18Z) although can`t rule out a passing shower in the
increasingly moist warm air advection pattern.

Breaks in the clouds combined with the southwest breeze will
support a very warm day relative to late March climo - with
fcst max temps in the 65-75F range or +15-25 degrees above the
historical average/within 5 degrees or so of daily record highs
(see climate section).

The aforementioned strong cold front will provide the primary
forcing for a band of rain and thunderstorms to track from NW to
SE across central PA this evening through tonight. SPC has
extended the MRGL and SLGT risk convective outlooks farther
eastward into western and central PA, however calibrated severe
storm probs continue to focus the greatest hail/wind/tor risk in
the Ohio Valley where CAPE and shear profiles are more insync.
Influx of 1-1.5" pwats brings the prospect of locally heavy
rainfall more into play and fcst QPF amounts have increased a
bit particularly over southwest PA. It`s not clear how much fast
movement and average soil moisture can be offset by training
storms and orographics, but like the severe t-storm risk, the
probability of runoff issues has increased on the margin and
WPC will be monitoring for a targeted upgrade in the ERO. The
highest rainfall totals are 1.50-2.00 inches in the Laurel
Highlands.