Blue Dream Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Newman said: 0z NAM. I've lost the words at this point, I mean this is just insane Wow. Do you have a map of hourly rates by any chance? Has to be 2-4” per hour at a time right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Well, the NAM is one hell of a start to the 00z suite. Unreal!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londoncalling457 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Is the thinking still that there won't be much accumulation during daylight? I'm out of work at 3pm. Only a 3 mile drive home but wanna have my bases covered. Hoping for a smooth ride home so I can enjoy the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 22" PHL and 35" local max (central NJ about halfway across) 18-24 ACY, depends on accuracy of measurement in very strong winds, drifting etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Newman said: 0z NAM. I've lost the words at this point, I mean this is just insane Its awesome and all, but if we are being honest, it is an extreme outlier with those amounts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago We are ready for this blizzard. 1 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Yes, that might be accurate for drift-tops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Its awesome and all, but if we are being honest, it is an extreme outlier with those amounts. Oh totally, it literally rotates in a firehose of supercells off the ocean and has 6"/hour rates for hours over NJ. Reasonable local lolli will probably be more in the 30-34" range 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Newman said: Oh totally, it literally rotates in a firehose of supercells off the ocean and has 6"/hour rates for hours over NJ. Reasonable local lolli will probably be more in the 30-34" range Agreed. Places in NJ will get to experience blizzard 83 rates for a period in spots, I have no doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The RRFS would be fun if you're a Berks/Lehigh Valley weenie... 2-4" of snow only LOL. FV3-GFS also went east a bit... Not all of these NOAA meso models should at all be taken seriously though, they don't excel in large synoptic systems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Calm before the storm (ACY). 38/32. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago RGEM is ummm, concerning 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Newman said: The RRFS would be fun if you're a Berks/Lehigh Valley weenie... 2-4" of snow only LOL. FV3-GFS also went east a bit... Not all of these NOAA meso models should at all be taken seriously though, they don't excel in large synoptic systems That would be a huge let down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Newman said: RGEM is ummm, concerning Still a real possibility. Looks a lot like boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Newman said: RGEM is ummm, concerning Where is Bolaris!? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Newman said: RGEM is ummm, concerning Fv3 and ggem have the dropsonde data iirc too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Why can’t it ever be easy damn it? 2016 and 2021 were very uncertain until the last minute too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Why can’t it ever be easy damn it? 2016 and 2021 were very uncertain until the last minute too. Rgem is an outlier on the opposite extreme of the NAM. But if that verified, Hurricane would be kicking himself for giving in and not sticking with his original call which is essentially the rgem verbatim. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looking at Wunderground giving me 5" for tomorrow and then seeing those clown maps is giving me whiplash. Is the NAM taking into account how warm it's going to be at the start or no? (just talking about us interior people) Don't get me wrong, I'm goign to be happy if even that verifies, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago RGEM hates this storm, I bet it’s wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Rgem is an outlier on the opposite extreme of the NAM. But if that verified, Hurricane would be kicking himself for giving in and not sticking with his original call which is essentially the rgem verbatim. The RGEM was the last model to cave in 2016. It had been showing a miss north of Philly for days. I vividly remember watching the 0z run come in with a big snowstorm as the storm was starting on Friday night and knowing at that moment we were in for something historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow_ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Why can’t it ever be easy damn it? 2016 and 2021 were very uncertain until the last minute too. Yes I remember the nam was the only model to show 30 inches for the Lehigh valley in 2016 and the rest showed 3 to 6. Ppl at my job laughed at me that Friday nite when I said oh we might get 30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Really dislike Miller B's, models can never predict them well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Still liking my 8-16” call for the Lehigh Valley. If you blend the amped AF mesos and the farther east models you get something in that range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looking at Wunderground giving me 5" for tomorrow and then seeing those clown maps is giving me whiplash. Is the NAM taking into account how warm it's going to be at the start or no? (just talking about us interior people) Don't get me wrong, I'm goign to be happy if even that verifies, but still.You make a good point. The more I look at this the more I realize the bust potential here is enormous, both inland and in the jackpot area closer to the coast. I really do not think the models take the warm temperatures into account. Even here in the LV we may not hit 32 as a low. The coast has a high likelihood of not dropping below the mid 30s. Sure, it will snow and accumulate, but what will the ratios be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Rgem just scares me. lol I need 12+ that’s my goal with this one. Probably going to turn off the models at 12z though and just enjoy whatever happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Its awesome and all, but if we are being honest, it is an extreme outlier with those amounts. Yea by tomorrow or 18z it’ll come back to reality. Though if the h7 fronto is strong someone on NJ will get 2’+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago FWIW the HRDPS (hi-res version of the RGEM) is signficantly better than its lower res parent. It’s still on the lower end of the models but it has warning criteria snow for the entire region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Interesting bit of information from the Joe and Joe show this evening is that the European model isn’t the same model we are accustomed to. It’s more of the control version, there where changes made to it and isn’t the same model it was a couple of years ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I like this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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