“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm more interested in Euro AI. If that bumps NW Ill feel more confident. The 12z Euro was so far SE that it almost has to come back a bit.

The AIGFS run was mildly alarming I guess, since it matches the GEFS mean

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'm more interested in Euro AI. If that bumps NW Ill feel more confident. The 12z Euro was so far SE that it almost has to come back a bit.

The AIGFS run was mildly alarming I guess

THIS, except AIGFS is almost as trashy as ICON! And Euro is not the Euro we used to see! It seems they switched the code with the AI guy!

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

THIS, except AIGFS is almost as trashy as ICON! And Euro is not the Euro we used to see! It seems they switched the code with the AI guy!

As much as the euro ticks me off, I don’t have the good feelings of a storm when only the gfs op shows it. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

As much as the euro ticks me off, I don’t have the good feelings of a storm when only the gfs op shows it. 

18z CMC looked like it would have been good again maybe even slightly better at hr 84

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z CMC looked like it would have been good again maybe even slightly better at hr 84

 

 

[ineedsnow]

Euro will be a bit better I think

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Euro will be a bit better I think

Hopefully more like 6z and not some sort of uninspiring compromise

[ineedsnow]

yup coming west of 12z

[SouthCoastMA]

Meh. 18z AIFS a small tick east. Thought it looked slightly better at 500 early on

[ineedsnow]

not there yet but much better compared to 12z

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

not there yet but much better compared to 12z

I mean it had to be

[dryslot]

In a normal season whenever the last time that was I would say this is right where we want it at day 5.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

yup coming west of 12z

 

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Meh. 18z AIFS a small tick east. Thought it looked slightly better at 500 early on

You’re right. Comparing 500 environment surrounding the shortwave trough in question it argued for something north I thoughts 

[ineedsnow]

huge jump west

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That's west? It must have been in Bermuda.

[brooklynwx99]

quite a bit better here

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's west? It must have been in Bermuda.

Yes at 12z

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's west? It must have been in Bermuda.

bottom image 12z top image 18z

[40/70 Benchmark]

I figured there was a catch when I heard way west .....

[Ginx snewx]

Creeping and crawling. Let the tuck begin. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Get rid of all that crap east of main vorticity and we got something.

[ineedsnow]

EPS better!

[Ginx snewx]

Having flashbacks to Juno . Just kept coming NW starting day 5

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS better!

again, 12z was very bad. Better as in good? or better as in still a miss but closer?

[Wxbear25]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Get rid of all that crap east of main vorticity and we got something.

Or, better yet, do what the GFS does and turn that more meridional.  In that position it would close it off just south of LI

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Having flashbacks to Juno . Just kept coming NW starting day 5

Some of the earlier runs reminded me of Juno.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

again, 12z was very bad. Better as in good? or better as in still a miss but closer?

better as in still a miss but closer

[MJO812]

Tick tick

Courtesy of a meteorologist from another forum.