wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Glad I installed a standby generator in 2016 agreed my house was built. Smartest investment anyone should do 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 31 minutes ago, MANDA said: The January event ticked upwards right up until the event was underway. Went into it thinking about 1” or a little more of liquid and ended up with 1.5”. Totally different setup between this and that of course but it got wetter right up until the event. There’s a lot of people that don’t understand how different this storm will be as modeled when compared to other coastal storms that provided a lot of snow to the area. I am telling family out on LI to think of this as a hurricane that brings snow. The modeled intensity speaks for itself. I also introduced them to a new word for their vocabulary- Bombogenesis. The map below with the expected winds off the latest HRRR run speaks for itself. And yes it does have an eye. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: That's forky verified numbers right there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2/21 21z SREF Total QPF mean 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 That's forky verified numbers right there.Looks like it includes snow next week but still, crazy. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Reynolds wolf in Montauk, Jim cantore in atleast nyc for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Does anyone have the latest NBM? Here’s the 0z NBM (v.5.0): 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2/22 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow SREF mean: 2.2 / 21 NAM: 2.8 / 27.5 NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5 ICON: 1.4 / 13.5 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3 GFS: 1.6 / 16.7 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6 GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8 GEFS: 1.7 / 17 UKMET: 1.2 / 11 EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7 EURO: 1.4 / 12.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Thanks! That's almost obscene. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Tatamy said: There’s a lot of people that don’t understand how different this storm will be as modeled when compared to other coastal storms that provided a lot of snow to the area. I am telling family out on LI to think of this as a hurricane that brings snow. The modeled intensity speaks for itself. I also introduced them to a new word for their vocabulary- Bombogenesis. The map below with the expected winds off the latest HRRR run speaks for itself. And yes it does have an eye. I agree this is like a hurricane CAT 2 with snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceanctyguy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: That's forky verified numbers right they're! 4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: This goes through 3/5. Maybe more than one event included in these totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 What it is: The National Blend of Models (NBM) is NOAA/NWS’s statistically post-processed blend that combines dozens of deterministic and ensemble models into a single, calibrated forecast grid used operationally across the U.S. Models included: Core inputs typically include GFS, GEFS, ECMWF (Euro), ECMWF ensembles, NAM (12 km & 3 km), HRRR, RAP, CMC/GEM, UKMET, and select regional ensembles (availability varies by cycle and variable). Weighting approach: Dynamic, variable-specific weighting is applied—models are weighted differently by forecast hour, parameter (QPF, snow, wind, temp), season, region, and recent skill, rather than a fixed average. Post-processing & bias correction: Raw model output is statistically bias-corrected, smoothed, and calibrated using historical verification, climatology, and consistency checks to reduce noise, outliers, and known model biases. Operational output: Produces probabilistic and deterministic fields (means, percentiles, PoPs, snowfall ranges) and serves as the baseline guidance for NWS forecast grids, with human forecasters adjusting for mesoscale and event-specific factors. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 God damn the Nam is tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I think the sites starting to crash response time is lagging and getting slower and slower..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Mail Man said: God damn the Nam is tucked Bombs away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 lord 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Please fix your post to only show this storm please 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Nam is not backing down my god 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Please fix your post to only show this storm please 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This might be more epic than 18z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 this will be better than 18z. what the fuck 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 sref were a good precursor the nam would remain robust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snowside Heights and Snow Pleasant crushed in NJ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam will calm down tonight or show 4 feet. Either is on the table It can’t be the NAM until we have a run that shows 40” ala Feb 2013. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, MJO812 said: This might be more epic than 18z I think I'm going to bed now there's no chance I'm missing this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Mostly still dorky verified! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Holy smokes is NJ smacked! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 At hr 33, 1050 high north of East MN, 972 MB low. Incredible gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: this will be better than 18z. what the fuck My my my. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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