jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, oceanctyguy said: Interesting how essentially every model has consistently had that Monmouth/Ocean county jackpot for a few days now. Might be very Boxing Day 2010-esque how a death band sets up over NJ. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Not jim Cantore in Montauk right now other guy is though maybe Jim will be somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Yep and best banding will set up northwest of it most likely. . I agree. HRRR has ticked up max amounts vs 18z. Really maximizes impacts over our region. SNE gets the occluded version 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 40 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Nws says they never had a snowfall over 20 inches this late in the season before. Yes. The latest was the Blizzard of 1983 (2/11-12/1983). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Bullseye right over me. Big day tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 52 minutes ago, David-LI said: according to NAM 3k it could start as early as 8 am in nyc and LI Will be heading to stores earlier then I wanted. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, steve392 said: Will be heading to stores earlier then I wanted. if you want to avoid the crowds sure, but it should be ok to drive until the afternoon, it starts early but it cranks up in the afternoon/evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: very high chance some of us will loser power 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Does anyone have the latest NBM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2am to 8am Monday will be nuts. Whiteout conditions with possible thunder and lightning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Does anyone have the latest NBM? 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Glad I installed a standby generator in 2016 agreed my house was built. Smartest investment anyone should do 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 31 minutes ago, MANDA said: The January event ticked upwards right up until the event was underway. Went into it thinking about 1” or a little more of liquid and ended up with 1.5”. Totally different setup between this and that of course but it got wetter right up until the event. There’s a lot of people that don’t understand how different this storm will be as modeled when compared to other coastal storms that provided a lot of snow to the area. I am telling family out on LI to think of this as a hurricane that brings snow. The modeled intensity speaks for itself. I also introduced them to a new word for their vocabulary- Bombogenesis. The map below with the expected winds off the latest HRRR run speaks for itself. And yes it does have an eye. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: That's forky verified numbers right there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2/21 21z SREF Total QPF mean 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 That's forky verified numbers right there.Looks like it includes snow next week but still, crazy. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Reynolds wolf in Montauk, Jim cantore in atleast nyc for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Does anyone have the latest NBM? Here’s the 0z NBM (v.5.0): 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2/22 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow SREF mean: 2.2 / 21 NAM: 2.8 / 27.5 NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5 ICON: 1.4 / 13.5 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3 GFS: 1.6 / 16.7 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6 GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8 GEFS: 1.7 / 17 UKMET: 1.2 / 11 EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7 EURO: 1.4 / 12.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Thanks! That's almost obscene. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Tatamy said: There’s a lot of people that don’t understand how different this storm will be as modeled when compared to other coastal storms that provided a lot of snow to the area. I am telling family out on LI to think of this as a hurricane that brings snow. The modeled intensity speaks for itself. I also introduced them to a new word for their vocabulary- Bombogenesis. The map below with the expected winds off the latest HRRR run speaks for itself. And yes it does have an eye. I agree this is like a hurricane CAT 2 with snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceanctyguy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: That's forky verified numbers right they're! 4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: This goes through 3/5. Maybe more than one event included in these totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 What it is: The National Blend of Models (NBM) is NOAA/NWS’s statistically post-processed blend that combines dozens of deterministic and ensemble models into a single, calibrated forecast grid used operationally across the U.S. Models included: Core inputs typically include GFS, GEFS, ECMWF (Euro), ECMWF ensembles, NAM (12 km & 3 km), HRRR, RAP, CMC/GEM, UKMET, and select regional ensembles (availability varies by cycle and variable). Weighting approach: Dynamic, variable-specific weighting is applied—models are weighted differently by forecast hour, parameter (QPF, snow, wind, temp), season, region, and recent skill, rather than a fixed average. Post-processing & bias correction: Raw model output is statistically bias-corrected, smoothed, and calibrated using historical verification, climatology, and consistency checks to reduce noise, outliers, and known model biases. Operational output: Produces probabilistic and deterministic fields (means, percentiles, PoPs, snowfall ranges) and serves as the baseline guidance for NWS forecast grids, with human forecasters adjusting for mesoscale and event-specific factors. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 God damn the Nam is tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I think the sites starting to crash response time is lagging and getting slower and slower..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Mail Man said: God damn the Nam is tucked Bombs away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 lord 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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