MJO812 Posted Thursday at 08:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:44 PM Nam is so ridiculously close to a phase like the gfs. Come on! Way better than 12z 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:46 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nam is so ridiculously close to a phase like the gfs. Come on! Way better than 12z Yeah I noticed that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:55 PM I hope we can get the 18z models to go back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:05 PM Icon looking better than 12z so far. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[email protected] Posted Thursday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:11 PM 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Its February not march Late February, thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:13 PM 1 minute ago, [email protected] said: Late February, thought! Getting late early....down to about 3 weeks before climo really works against us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:15 PM Ok I lied Icon looks bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted Thursday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:17 PM 3 hours ago, Wxbear25 said: Yeah… if the AIFS and UKMET are right, that wave-spacing is just gonna kill any possibility the feature can turn the corner fast enough. really need that lead wave to slow down, the one from Canada to speed up or some combination thereof. Right now, they’re perfectly spaced so as to kill any chance of doing something for places like NYC, at least as depicted on those models Whatever outcome gives least snow for central park is the most likely to verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:18 PM Not going to lie I hope the GFS starts caving in a few minutes it basically has 0 support and keeps stringing us along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted Thursday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:19 PM 3 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: Can't get a freaking noreaster anymore only 1 in the past 2 years possibly 2... 0 nor'easters that hit here since jan 22. Even that one was more of a graze for the city proper, decent hit for LI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM 18z RGEM improved aloft, for what little that happens to be worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM 2 minutes ago, Mail Man said: Not going to lie I hope the GFS starts caving in a few minutes it basically has 0 support and keeps stringing us along. Rgem and icon just shifted west. Not like the gfs but a good shift. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Thursday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:22 PM Expect 18z gfs to pull back and 0z to do the same for a full cave tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Thursday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:23 PM 3 minutes ago, Mail Man said: Not going to lie I hope the GFS starts caving in a few minutes it basically has 0 support and keeps stringing us along. At this point it's almost comical how different it is considering we're a few days out from the potential event. I'd put good money on it backing off at 18Z, maybe not a full cave right away but it's fairly likely that it'll at least take a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:24 PM Closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:24 PM 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Expect 18z gfs to pull back and 0z to do the same for a full cave tomorrow. It may show one more crazy solution especially since the 18z run often is a weenie run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 09:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:25 PM Just now, mob1 said: At this point it's almost comical how different it is considering we're a few days out from the potential event. I'd put good money on it backing off at 18Z, maybe not a full cave right away but it's fairly likely that it'll at least take a step back. It’s hard to put trust into the GFS at this particular moment, especially considering what the current Admin has done to sciences in general. I do have to wonder as to its upkeep and data ingestion I trust the actual scientists, just not the lackeys and yes-men in charge of them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Thursday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:27 PM 4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Expect 18z gfs to pull back and 0z to do the same for a full cave tomorrow. GFS = Generates Fantasy Shit 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Thursday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:28 PM 39 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: If you look carefully at the two maps, you can see a friendly dog (left) and a charging bull (right). Yes doctor I first had these thoughts at an earlier age (by ten seconds). pages and pages for a storm that isn't going to happen....good lord it's been a boring month. glad december and january were interesting. suprised things turned out to be such a dud. well, not really... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Thursday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:29 PM Just now, weatherpruf said: pages and pages for a storm that isn't going to happen....good lord it's been a boring month. glad december and january were interesting. suprised things turned out to be such a dud. well, not really... it hasn't happened because it may happen still you're not 100% it won't happen are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:29 PM I'm expecting a cave from the GFS as much as I want it to be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:30 PM It will most likely cave but every model is so close. Frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:32 PM 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: pages and pages for a storm that isn't going to happen....good lord it's been a boring month. glad december and january were interesting. suprised things turned out to be such a dud. well, not really... too much of a good thing-cold and blocking-PV too far south-bone dry since 1/25 with a .25 liquid equiv since then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:33 PM PTTD (Post-Traumatic Tracking Disorder) Prediction: GFS caves most publicly at 12Z tomorrow, then when nobody is watching at 6Z Saturday all the models jump to the GFS blizzard solution, then everyone celebrates - for about 12 hours - when the NAM sends us all an FU goodbye, by showing that that blizzard is going to become a snow to sleet to rainfest and all the models slowly follow. 2" of snow, then 2" of sleet then 1" of rain to wash it all away. Curtain comes up, NAM bows and waves goodbye. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it. It was also around this time. Yup they lost it at around day 5-6 or so. Days 5-8 are very dangerous because they're close enough to take more seriously than 10 days out but far enough that the accuracy at day 7 is basically nil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Thursday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:42 PM 12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: it hasn't happened because it may happen still you're not 100% it won't happen are you? well i'm not 100% sure a sinkhole won't open up in my backyard and swallow the house either....but i'm not too worried about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Thursday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:44 PM 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: PTTD (Post-Traumatic Tracking Disorder) Prediction: GFS caves most publicly at 12Z tomorrow, then when nobody is watching at 6Z Saturday all the models jump to the GFS blizzard solution, then everyone celebrates - for about 12 hours - when the NAM sends us all an FU goodbye, by showing that that blizzard is going to become a snow to sleet to rainfest and all the models slowly follow. 2" of snow, then 2" of sleet then 1" of rain to wash it all away. Curtain comes up, NAM bows and waves goodbye. that would be less boring than what we have and precip would still be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Thursday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:44 PM Late February, thought!I thought that too by looking at the calendar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:46 PM No major changes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted Thursday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:46 PM 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Getting late early....down to about 3 weeks before climo really works against us This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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