Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[wasnow215]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Not shocking icon h5 is no where near what it was at 12z not even close. 

Icon like taking "advice" from your most consistently "drunken friend" haha

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Of course.  Gotta go to Houston (on purpose) this weekend. If that happened, I’d be sick.   If it’s on the map tomm, I’ll start faking the beginning of an illness.  

It’s ok, 18z says nah 

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s ok, 18z says nah 

Whew.  But all models having some possibility still warrants some attention.  I’m scared this time. 

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

MJO phase 4-5 isn’t going to get you snow in mid Atlantic. But glad to see everyone jumping for joy on a Monday lol.

What's up DT! Hope all is well! 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not shocking icon h5 is no where near what it was at 12z not even close. 

Unfortunately, though not exact, it's probably closest to the 12z Euro and Canadian. But of course....what else is new?

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Unfortunately, though not exact, it's probably closest to the 12z Euro and Canadian. But of course....what else is new?

I mean I don’t get invested in systems till inside 96 anymore so not like it is a shock. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean I don’t get invested in systems till inside 96 anymore so not like it is a shock. 

And that’s the way it should be, imo. Outside of 96, ensembles and how they trend to get a general idea of threat windows. Only when we start looking at op runs inside 96 do we start getting invested. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

And that’s the way it should be, imo. Outside of 96, ensembles and how they trend to get a general idea of threat windows. Only when we start looking at op runs inside 96 do we start getting invested. 

Everyone gets all worked up about models showing storms days 5 plus and as we know they rarely pan out. I can say ya I used to get excited when models had something cooking day 5 but I have learned my lesson. Just wait till inside day 3 and it will be a lot less headache. 

[soadforecasterx]

well at the 96 hour window you can start to see if there will be a storm or not. Not sure what one is right but atleast gives you a window into the idea of a storm or not. 

[bncho]

Just like most of our storms this winter, wave spacing will be key.

[mitchnick]

GFSAI is better this run with a mixed bag. Couple more ticks like the one this run vs 12z and we'll be OK I think.

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Everyone gets all worked up about models showing storms days 5 plus and as we know they rarely pan out. I can say ya I used to get excited when models had something cooking day 5 but I have learned my lesson. Just wait till inside day 3 and it will be a lot less headache. 

You will be OK. Please listen to me.

Model cooking is hallucinogenic Nonsense..............................   I have You covered........................ 

[soadforecasterx]

GFS seems to be slowly stepping away from the storm since 00z at 500

[stormy]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

GFS seems to be slowly stepping away from the storm since 00z at 500

That is wonderful!     Gods creatures need a break

[stormy]

GFS coming in a little suppressed at 18z but still a winner

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, stormy said:

GFS coming in a little suppressed at 18z but still a winner

You're not the center of the forum. Maryland gets hit pretty good, but everybody in VA (a huge part of our demographic) gets skunked with 1" or less.

 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

Just like most of our storms this winter, wave spacing will be key.

Not just spacing young lad. Timing and interactions. There are multiple pieces of energy-vorticity ribbons and balls of vorticity, on the playing field. No way to know exactly how the interplay will work out at this range.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

You're not the center of the forum. Maryland gets hit pretty good, but everybody in VA (a huge part of our demographic) gets skunked with 1" or less.

 

Don’t be salty, it’s 6 days out. It will change 10,000 times. 

[CAPE]

There are at least 5 key pieces of energy in the western half of the US on this panel, and all of them will play a role in the ultimate outcome.

[CAPE]

I guess my technical thread is dead. I'm here now. Oh well. People love the snow maps and emotional pendulums. I'll deal with it.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I guess my technical thread is dead. I'm here now. Oh well. People love the snow maps and emotional pendulums. I'll deal with it.

Its near the end of winter. I think starting that thread way out in December for next year might be better as it allows it to become established for all the main threats.

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I guess my technical thread is dead. I'm here now. Oh well. People love the snow maps and emotional pendulums. I'll deal with it.

Ji only tracks digital snow 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, bncho said:

You're not the center of the forum. Maryland gets hit pretty good, but everybody in VA (a huge part of our demographic) gets skunked with 1" or less.

 

If we gonna do snow maps, do it right. Zoom out a bit. And THIS is the total.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ji only tracks digital snow 

Yeah he has told us that for decades lol

[stormtracker]

39 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I guess my technical thread is dead. I'm here now. Oh well. People love the snow maps and emotional pendulums. I'll deal with it.

I loved it, just got tired of switching between the two.  Just post here, most of us know to skip and weed out the turds in the punchbowl.

But then again, Alexander Hackilton said you suck.

[Terpeast]

Gefs look solid. Even better than 12z, quite different from the op. One reason - western ridge taller 18z compared to previous runs

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I loved it, just got tired of switching between the two.  Just post here, most of us know to skip and weed out the turds in the punchbowl.

But then again, Alexander Hackilton said you suck.

Is that like temu George Washington? 

[stormy]

44 minutes ago, bncho said:

You're not the center of the forum. Maryland gets hit pretty good, but everybody in VA (a huge part of our demographic) gets skunked with 1" or less.

 

You are also not a center of the forum.  You are only an intruder who has no credibility.

I'm sorry, but you are fake.

[Weather Will]

Sigh, I'm suckered into tracking again....latest WB EURO AI 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Sigh, I'm suckered into tracking again....latest EURO AI 

Warning, may be hazardous to your health.