Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Ji]

6z GEFS has it.


 

Euro Ai took it further south. Looks like a colder version of this weekend

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro Ai took it further south. Looks like a colder version of this weekend

It seems to be the best opportunity for something, for now.  Have to monitor the h5 look to see if it degrades in future runs. That's what has tended to happen recently.

[wasnow215]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah.. I've seen them be constantly wrong since appearing on model pages. NWS doesn't even use them. 3 days ago I think they were showing 11" of snow here on the ensemble mean! I don't know why they are so flawed- it's suppose to be a new model.  There have been bulletins I think saying don't use them. 

AI also said Shawshank redemption two was coming out. AI is the biggest hype since Y2K lol... they're only as good as the information going into them

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

AI also said Shawshank redemption two was coming out. AI is the biggest hype since Y2K lol... they're only as good as the information going into them

Not only the AI. Euro had 2 hits in the MA on the 12z run for next weekend and 0z lost both of them. It's just a fact that the models struggle past day 3 and are snow happy. Really takes the "fun" out of this hobby.

[GreyHat]

NWS has some rain for delmarva Wednesday-Sunday in the mid to upper 40s. Same for Ft. Meade MD with the exception for Sunday a chance of snow mixed. The extended forecast has 50 into March 3rd.

We could use the rain before the summer.  Feel sorry for the DC are with that sewage spill in the Potomac.

[dailylurker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Not only the AI. Euro had 2 hits in the MA on the 12z run for next weekend and 0z lost both of them. It's just a fact that the models struggle past day 3 and are snow happy. Really takes the "fun" out of this hobby.

I've always found it odd how models don't seem to understand climo. They always produce these rare events beyond day 3. I've probably had 100" of digital snow in the past 6 weeks. Odd for a place that averages like 10" a year lol. 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I've always found it odd how models don't seem to understand climo. They always produce these rare events beyond day 3. I've probably had 100" of digital snow in the past 6 weeks. Odd for a place that averages like 10" a year lol. 

I agree.  And you would think that's where the AI models would shine having been fed that info, but they don't. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, GreyHat said:

NWS has some rain for delmarva Wednesday-Sunday in the mid to upper 40s. Same for Ft. Meade MD with the exception for Sunday a chance of snow mixed. The extended forecast has 50 into March 3rd.

We could use the rain before the summer.  Feel sorry for the DC are with that sewage spill in the Potomac.

 Screw that rain .. I was a snowstorm, if it's not gonna snow then be clear and sunny!